Since last week, oil prices have ended their upward trend and returned to below $50. Goldman Sachs pointed out on Wednesday (15) that $50 will be the top in the near future. On the whole, Goldman Sachs analyst Kuvarin said in a report on Wednesday that this round of oil price rebound is fragile. After the end of the Canadian mountain fire, the output rebounded, and the Nigerian conflict is expected to be resolved. Xu Yuxuan's output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries exceeded expectations, leading to oversupply at the beginning of next year, and the crude oil production reduction caused by rising oil prices was less than expected. These factors together suppressed the further rise of oil prices.
Yesterday, the price of oil plummeted and came out of the gloomy market. What caused the oil price to plummet?
Reason 1: EIA inventory fell less than expected.
According to data released by the us energy information administration (EIA) on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories decreased last week, but the decline was far less than expected, and gasoline inventories decreased significantly. According to the data released by EIA, as of the week of June 10, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 933,000 barrels to 531540,000 barrels, and the market forecast was to decrease by 2.26 million barrels.
The data also shows that Cushing's crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 904,000 barrels to 66.46 million barrels. Last week, US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.625 million barrels, and the market estimated that it would decrease by 243,000 barrels. American distillate stocks increased by 786,000 barrels, and the market forecast decreased by 249,000 barrels. Last week, the daily import of crude oil in the United States decreased by 83,000 barrels.
Reason 2: Britain's referendum on leaving the EU is just around the corner.
Britain's referendum on leaving the EU will be held on June 23rd. According to the latest Financial Times poll, the proportion of people who support Britain to leave the EU has been leading, reaching 47%, while 44% of Britons support Britain to stay in the EU. With the rising risk of Britain's exit from the EU, this uncertainty in the European market may increase investors' worries about the economic prospects, which will lead to pressure on the energy demand prospects and even lead to the sale of risky assets such as crude oil.
Reason 3: The Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth forecast.
At 02:00 am yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and take a "dove" stance on future monetary policy.
Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it hinted that it planned to raise interest rates twice this year, saying that it expected the US job market to strengthen again after the recent slowdown. However, the Fed lowered its economic growth forecast. The news hit the oil market.
The explosion of oil pipes caused by the fire in Canada and the conflict in Nigeria led to a sharp drop of 3.5 million barrels of crude oil supply in May, which was the main driving force for this round of oil price increase. However, the chaos caused by wildfires in Canada is expected to end at the end of June, Nigeria and anti-government forces have also started negotiations, and the upward trend of oil prices has begun to dissipate. It is expected that the oil price recovery will stop at the recent level. It is believed that only when the crude oil price needs to be between 45-50 USD/barrel will the market turn into a supply gap in the second half of 20 16. The shortage of crude oil will continue moderately in the second half of this year. However, the market will return to a state of oversupply in the first quarter of next year.
Crude oil asphalt has been in this rhythm for three consecutive trading days this week, mainly due to the strong bulls in the previous period. Now the technical side has turned short, but because the indicators are still in the long channel, it will be more difficult to turn around. It is common to see this kind of repeated action yesterday, mainly to break the position.
How to solve the problem of multi-quilt cover when crude oil asphalt falls under pressure?
Crude oil asphalt continued to fluctuate and close down on Wednesday. Although the process is circuitous, the Asian plate is low, the European plate is low, and the American plate is reversed. Although EIA data was negative, crude oil rose instead of falling, and the resistance at the high point of 48.68 was under pressure again, and finally it rose high and fell back, closing lower in the late session. The daily chart received a negative line and fell under pressure all the way, and many long investors were firmly trapped.
Many investors who have lost money on other platforms have found me, and I don't understand why they are either sweeping losses or placing orders. They always look at those who make money and those who lose money. Here I want to remind you of a few points:
1, the list looks at the trend, but the trend is also divided into short-term and long-term. Don't be fooled by the so-called long-term trend. The advantage of crude oil asphalt investment lies in short-term operation, so short-term trend is more important.
2. There is no qualified teacher and no strict risk control plan, so it will lead to the loss of single or set of orders, and what is more serious is the explosion of positions. The most important thing in investing is to find the right teacher, Mr. Xu Yuxuan, who is skilled, experienced, responsible and tacit with the teacher. Only in this way can we ensure our most stable profit.
3, more than a single quilt cover, the current crude oil asphalt daily line is empty, the market has a callback trend. The news of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and the increase in crude oil inventories also suppressed crude oil asphalt to some extent. Therefore, if there are more than one quilt cover, it is necessary to leave the market in a small loss in time, rearrange it and operate with the trend. The list is reversed. Don't blindly recite the list and operate against the trend, so the losses caused to yourself are irreparable. The specific solution can be timely Baidu Xu Yuxuan, and I will make specific analysis and guidance according to your capital, location and risk rate combined with market trends. Help you solve the problem as soon as possible and turn losses into profits.