In 2022, the market went up.

Recently, oil prices have risen again, which is the fifth time this year and has set a record for the biggest increase in the past nine years.

We have talked about the rise in oil prices many times before. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price once approached the1$40/barrel mark. Although it fell back later, in the short term, the problems of tight supply and unbalanced supply in the crude oil market have not been effectively solved, so the oil price will remain high in the short term.

In addition to the continuous rise in oil prices, the prices of some products have also risen quietly.

The first obvious increase is edible oil.

In fact, the rise of edible oil lasted for a whole year of 202 1.

According to FAO statistics, the prices of various vegetable oils, including palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower seed oil, rose by 65.8% year-on-year, outperforming the increase of crude oil by 50%.

By 2022, it is still rising.

For example, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of soybean oil in Beijing Xinfadi has risen from 240 yuan/box (4 barrels and 5 liters) to 270 yuan, while the price of 20 liters of soybean oil in Zhengzhou wholesale market in Henan Province was still 190 yuan/barrel at the end of February, and now it has risen to -225 yuan/barrel in 220 yuan.

The rise of edible oil has both long-term and short-term factors.

The short-term factor is the market turmoil caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The data shows that the total output of sunflower oil in Russia and Ukraine accounts for nearly 60% of the global output, while the export volume accounts for 78% of the global output.

Although rapeseed oil is not the mainstream edible oil product, after the conflict broke out, the price of crude oil rose, the export of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil in the two countries was blocked, and the international market turned to soybean oil and palm oil, which greatly increased the demand for these two products.

Speaking of soybeans, we all know that our three staple foods are rich, but soybeans are a short board. China's soybean dependence on foreign countries is relatively high, and the average dependence value in recent five years is above 85%.

On the other hand, affected by the previous epidemic, the international soybean price soared, increasing the import cost of soybeans, thus pushing up the price of soybean oil.

In addition, with the improvement of people's living standards, frying and frying are readily available, and the daily oil consumption has also increased significantly.

The data show that the per capita consumption of edible oil in China has increased from less than 8kg in 1996 to 24kg in 20 14 years, which is obviously higher than the world average.

With the increase of cost and consumption, the price naturally rises.

Secondly, feed prices have risen frequently.

Corn and soybeans have always been called "the king of feed", and the increase of this "two kings" is not low this year.

Originally, wheat played an important role in the field of feed substitution last year, but the price of wheat has risen frequently this year, surpassing that of corn.

So overall, the cost of feed has been greatly pushed up.

Although the price of pigs has dropped frequently, the production capacity is still high, which also means that the demand for feed has a huge foundation.

Coupled with the interruption of the global soybean market caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the severe drought in South America, many major soybean producing countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay have reduced production, resulting in the soybean meal price hitting a new high in 10 years.

And from the current point of view, domestic supply is still tight before April, and the price of soybean meal will remain high. In the context of rising raw materials, feed prices still have room to rise.

The third is that flour has also quietly risen.

The price of flour has also gone up recently. For example, the price of 25 kilograms of flour has also risen from 85 yuan to over 100.

The rise in flour prices is mainly related to the rise in wheat.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of wheat has soared, not only breaking through the mark of 1.6 yuan/kg, but even approaching 1.7 yuan/kg for a time, which is the first time in the history of wheat.

The rise of wheat price is also affected by multiple factors:

First, the heavy rainfall in Huanghuai area delayed the winter sowing of wheat last year, and the growth of wheat in some areas was weak.

Last year, wheat has consumed a lot of stocks in the field of feed substitution, so the market is generally optimistic about this year's wheat.

Second, affected by inflation and rising fertilizer prices, the cost of planting has increased substantially, which has also led to an increase in the bottom of the whole food price.

Third, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market bullish sentiment has been further enhanced.

With the higher price of wheat, the price of terminal flour is also rising.

However, in view of the fact that wheat is a grain ration, its rising space is extremely limited under the state's stable regulation policy.

Finally, it should be reminded that geopolitical conflict is only a sudden factor, but its influence is far-reaching, especially likely to change the global food supply pattern.

Apart from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the already high inflation has been lingering. Under this influence, the prices of agricultural products will inevitably fluctuate.

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