2015 is an extraordinary year in the history of potatoes. The unpredictable price fluctuations not only bring us heartbeats, but also bring opportunities. As Jiaodong Datian potatoes are about to go on the market, let’s discuss the potato market trend later this year. My main point of view is as follows: 8 cents is the red line for potato storage in Jiaodong this year, and the price of potatoes will become more unpredictable in the future. The reasons are as follows:

1. A short gap period, some time ago: the yield of potatoes in greenhouses was a bit low, and the price was not ideal. When the price slightly increased, farmers were generally worried that the price would fall again, so they accelerated the production in the early stage. The sales progress of potatoes has been affected, but field potatoes have not been launched in large quantities, leaving a gap in the market. In mid-June, the production areas of Shandong will usher in a large number of mulch films. According to the experience of previous years, the price will drop sharply.

2. Is there really a shortage of potatoes this year? No shortage. Judging from the potato consumption structure in the past three years, the potato planting area in China is now 80 to 90 million acres every year, which is sufficient. The potato planting area and output can basically meet the market demand, and may still occur in some years. excess situation. This year, the potato planting area in Jiaodong has not decreased but has increased compared with last year, and the growth is also very good. The total output is expected to increase by about half compared with last year, and Jiaodong potatoes are the main source and the last opportunity for warehousing merchants. When there is sufficient supply in the warehouse, the supply of goods that simply goes to the market in a short period of time will not have a major impact on the price.

8 cents is the warning line

Based on the relationship between supply and demand, previous years’ experience, and the current situation, this year’s potato market is just like this year’s stock market. I personally think that this year's potato storage and subsequent prices are not optimistic. From a storage perspective, it is recommended to pay attention to the warning line of 8 cents. It is also expected that market transaction prices will fluctuate around this price.