Judging from the changes and performance of the market, there are opportunities and huge profits, as well as risks and challenges.
Let's look at the market:
0 1, the corn market rose, and the war of grabbing grain broke out.
In 2008, the corn market was weak and fluctuated in the first three weeks. The average purchase price of corn enterprises all over the country was once adjusted back to about 2600-2700 yuan, but after a week's increase, the average increase was about 100 yuan.
At present, the corn market is still rising. On March 2nd, the market showed that the number of corn enterprises increased by 19, mainly in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei and other provinces, and the increase range was between 10-40 yuan, which was narrower than that in March.
People in the industry have different opinions about the continuous strength of the current corn market. Some people think that the rising market in April and May is expected to come early, while others think that it is a chain reaction triggered by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which brings temporary fluctuations, and the real rebound market has not yet arrived.
But personally, under the international situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, corn exports will definitely be affected. According to the data, Ukraine's corn export volume ranks 433.5 million tons in the world, accounting for 16% of the global export volume.
Russia also has 4.5 million tons of exports, accounting for 2.2% of the world.
Coupled with the sharp rise in feed prices, high refined oil products and high pig production capacity, the low point of the corn market may have appeared in February, and the current high probability is the turning point of the market rise.
Another point, according to the current land rent, fertilizer price, labor price and other factors, the current corn price is not high.
02, wheat hit a new high, 1.6 yuan has stepped on the foot.
When it comes to the wheat market, it may come as a surprise to many people, because many people limit the price to 1.5 yuan. But the market is the market, and some enterprises have broken through the high position of 1.6 yuan.
From the wheat futures market, CNN reported on March 1 day that wheat futures rose by about 5.35% on Tuesday, reaching the highest price since 2008 14.
Judging from the purchase price of domestic flour enterprises, it has risen by about 10 day. The price has risen from the original 1.44- 1.48 yuan/kg to the present 1.52- 1.62 yuan/kg, and the rising band is quite obvious.
On March 2nd, the market showed that it was full today. A total of 29 wheat processing enterprises rose, and the increase was also very considerable. The top enterprises are: Yongming flour industry rose 1 10 yuan per ton, and the price was 3 140 yuan/ton; Zhoukou Wudeli rose 100 yuan, 3 100 yuan/ton; Suqian Wudeli rose 100 yuan, 3 120 yuan/ton; Yang Guo zhengyang flour rose by 100 yuan, 3 120 yuan/ton.
There are also many enterprises such as White Elephant Wudeli, Henan Mu Yuan, Luohe COFCO and Zhoukou Wang Lu. , both rose by 80 yuan/ton. See the following table for specific quotation:
It is estimated that 60% of the increase in wheat prices is due to international factors, while domestic factors have little influence on wheat prices. As we all know, Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, and Ukraine ranks fifth. Wheat exports of the two countries account for 29% of global wheat exports, close to 30%. If the conflict between the two countries affects wheat exports and even wheat production, it will have an impact on global wheat supply, and the chain reaction is wheat price increase.
However, due to the abundant grain reserves in China, the impact will be reduced to some extent. Personally, it is estimated that there should be no problem for wheat to enter 1.6 yuan as a whole, but it is unlikely to continue to rise.
03, the pig price does not rise when it is good, and the market is worrying.
After the Spring Festival, the hog market showed a weak consolidation trend. Although it has stabilized recently 1 week (on March 2nd, the national average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 6. 18 yuan/kg), there is still no sign of increase. Especially recently, China Storage Network released great good news, and started the first pork purchasing and storage work in 2022 on March 3rd and 4th, with a planned purchase volume of 40,000 tons.
It can be said that this is definitely a "heavy benefit" to the live pig market, but the market does not buy it, and there is no obvious increase as usual.
On March 3rd, the pig price system showed that only the markets in Chongqing and Sichuan provinces rose, among which the pig price in Chongqing rose slightly by 0.05 yuan per catty, and the mainstream price was 6. 1-6.5 yuan/catty; Sichuan rose by 0. 10 yuan and 6.3-6.5 yuan/kg.
At the same time, the three provinces also experienced a decline. Shandong fell 0. 10 yuan, 6.2-6.5 yuan; Jilin fell by 0. 10 yuan, 5.8-6.0 yuan/kg; Liaoning fell by 0. 10 yuan, 6.0-6. 1 yuan/kg, while other provinces held their horses.
From the analysis of the market situation, under the stimulation of heavy profits, the pig price still has no good response. In the first half of the year, the pig price was worried by many factors such as high production capacity, light consumption and poor market sentiment.
04. The price trend of eggs is tangled and the rise is weak.
Speaking of the egg market, everyone must feel that after the Spring Festival, the price of eggs first fell and then rose. However, in recent days, the upward momentum is obviously insufficient. In terms of price, the mainstream wholesale price of eggs in most areas is around 3.70-3.90 yuan, and 4 yuan seems to be the ceiling per catty.
On March 2, the egg market improved slightly, and the price of eggs only rose slowly in some areas.
It is understood that the egg price of Dayang Road in Beijing dropped by 0.02 yuan per catty, 3.8 1 yuan/catty; The mainstream price in Beijing increased by 0.04 yuan and 3.82 yuan/kg; Dongguan, Guangdong rose 3 points, 3.94 yuan/kg; Harbin gross increase 1, 3.9 yuan/kg; Chaoyang, Liaoning rose 5 points, 3.65 yuan/kg; Liaoyang rose 1.4 cents, 3.87 yuan/kg; Chengde, Hebei Province rose 4 points, 3.7 1 yuan/kg; Changde, Hunan Province rose 2 points, 4. 1 1 yuan/kg.
Although the price of eggs has rebounded in some areas today, from today's futures market, it oscillated downward after opening higher, with a closing price of 4290 yuan /500KG, a decrease of 0.42%.
At the same time, with the low consumption season from March to May, it is difficult for the egg price to break through 4 yuan, and it is likely to fluctuate around 3.5 yuan, and the price limit may be near 3 yuan.
Dear friends, the prices of corn, wheat and other grains have risen sharply recently, while the prices of pigs and eggs have faltered. what do you think? Which of the four will go up? (Text/Sannong Guangxun)