1. Factors affecting PVC futures.
1. From the cost point of view, at present, the price of thermal coal has gradually declined from a sharp fall to a gentle decline, or sought the bottom in the form of weak shocks. In addition, the international crude oil has entered a phased adjustment, which is equivalent to the pressure test of the PVC market. It can be said that the influence of energy on PVC is quite limited.
2. In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation in East China fell back to 9 150 yuan/ton; The basic price difference is 758 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, the number of futures registrations has been greatly reduced to 3207, that is, 1.6 million tons. This quantity is very small because the radix is positive. In terms of inventory, as of June 165438+ 10/2, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East China and South China was 149000 tons, which was +0.4% month-on-week and +39% year-on-year. In general, destocking continues, and the pressure is not great.
3. Upstream, the calcium carbide market rose first and then stabilized this week. As of Thursday, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 5,000 yuan/ton, up by 500 yuan/ton from last Thursday. Mainly due to the loss of calcium carbide enterprises in the early stage and insufficient output, the entrepreneurship of downstream PVC enterprises increased. However, the profits of PVC enterprises are constantly being compressed, especially those that buy calcium carbide.
4. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream product enterprises has not changed much, but has increased slightly; The real estate data is weak, the demand is limited, and it is in a weak state. Downstream procurement has a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly based on bargain-hunting. However, the darkest period of real estate supervision has passed. By the end of the year, the money supply maintained a certain liquidity, and special bonds were added in June 5438+February. If so, the economy is expected to rebound sharply. CITIC Securities believes that after 202 1, 1 1, the investment in mortgage loans will continue to grow and the sales return will be significantly improved; In March 2022, the sales volume of the whole market may increase.
In short, the impact of falling coal prices on PVC has been basically digested. However, there are too many factors affecting PVC futures, and the future development trend is still unclear.