Since 2003, especially since August this year, oil prices have risen sharply and rapidly, which has caused the international oil market to panic again. The New York Mercantile Exchange September West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures price broke through the psychological defense lines of $40 and $45 per barrel in just a few weeks, and reached the $50 mark. It finally fell back after hitting $49.40 on August 20. Compared with the beginning of the year, oil prices have increased by about 50%.
People in the industry agree on the reasons for the rise in oil prices, mainly 1. Compared with other commodities, the monopoly of oil is still very strong. In order to maintain the selling price, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been adopting the sales strategy of limiting production and protecting prices in recent years, but the supply has decreased. 2. The international market demand shows a slow growth trend, and the oil import demand of emerging countries, especially China and India, rises sharply. 3. The geopolitical situation is turbulent, and Iraqi rebels threaten to blow up oil production facilities, kidnap foreign companies as hostages and carry out terrorist activities. The political turmoil caused by Venezuela's domestic election has affected its oil production and export, and the protracted tax evasion case of Russian Kos Oil Company has caused market panic. Speculation in the oil futures market has intensified. When traders are in trouble, they will take the opportunity to speculate, thus contributing to the rise and fall of oil prices. 5. The production capacity of OPEC member countries is close to the limit, and their ability to regulate oil supply is declining.
As for the possible impact of this oil price on the economy, there are different opinions. As the impact of oil price fluctuation on economy is lagging behind, judging from several oil crises since 1970s, every crisis is always accompanied by high inflation and economic recession. For example, the oil embargo imposed by Arab countries between 1973- 1975 led to the first oil crisis in which the global economy declined severely, and the oil crisis triggered by the Iran-Iraq war between 198 1 982. The oil price shock triggered by the Gulf War has greatly hurt western industries. Therefore, some economists believe that this sharp rise in oil prices will inevitably bring considerable negative impact to the world economy. Take the United States as an example In the first quarter of 2004, GDP increased by 4.5%, and decreased to 3% in the second quarter. Affected by the oil price shock, many American economists have lowered their economic growth expectations in the second half of the year, thinking that high oil prices will affect consumer spending, reduce investment, reduce national real income, keep unemployment high, expand foreign trade deficit, and may lead to inflation. What's more, people think that the American economy may experience stagflation or fall into recession again in 2005. However, some institutions such as the Federal Reserve Board are optimistic that the impact of oil price shocks on the US economy is limited and will not lead to a new economic crisis. The reason is that, from a macro perspective, the relationship between supply and demand in the international oil market has not fundamentally changed, and the oil supply is sufficient. The demand for oil in the United States has not increased significantly, and there is a considerable oil inventory behind it. More importantly, it is much more tolerant of rising oil prices than before, so it can cope with price fluctuations in the international oil market in a short time. Once speculation subsides, the oil market will return to its original mode.
Oil is a strategic scarce resource. Although major oil importing countries have been practicing energy conservation and improving energy utilization rate for a long time, the status of oil as the main energy source will not be effectively replaced for a long time to come. With the continuous development of the world economy, especially the rapid development of developing countries such as China and Indian, the demand for oil in the international market is bound to increase. At the same time, the turbulent international geopolitical pattern, especially the terrorist activities of major oil-producing countries such as the Middle East, will always be an unstable link in the supply chain of the international oil market. Therefore, in the long run, with the increasing demand caused by the development of the world economy, oil prices will continue to rise. The possibility of a sharp rise in oil prices due to temporary factors and speculation in the short term is not ruled out. From the perspective of the United States, due to the oil crisis in the 1970s, the United States adjusted its macro-energy policy in time, paid attention to the diversification of energy composition, increased the development of alternative energy sources such as natural gas resources and nuclear energy, improved the energy utilization rate, paid attention to energy conservation and emission reduction, diversified import channels, had a huge strategic oil reserve, and its overall ability to resist the energy shortage crisis was greatly enhanced compared with the past. Short-term oil price fluctuations had relatively little impact on the economy. Therefore, although this oil price shock will definitely affect its economic growth in the second half of 2004, it is estimated that it will not have a reversible impact on its economic activities, and the specific impact needs further close attention.