June 5438, 2007+10 month

In order to further improve the index rules, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recently announced that the listing of new shares will be included in the Shanghai Composite Index, the new composite index and the corresponding Shanghai A-share index, Shanghai B-share index and Shanghai sub-index on 1 1 trading day. As a result, the IPO listed for more than four years will be included in the index on the first day. Although the main purpose of this new index regulation is to solve the phenomenon of inflated new stock index, it will definitely have a greater impact on all parties in the market.

The inflated index of IPO makes the Shanghai Composite Index increasingly distorted.

The provision of listing new shares in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index on the first day of listing has been implemented since September 23, 2002. Prior to this, the listing time of new shares in China's securities market was also included in the index one month after listing (19991month before listing) and the second trading day after listing (1999 165438), because China's market has always had the habit of speculating new shares. Therefore, the rule that new shares are included in the index on the first day of listing makes the premium of new shares in the secondary market fully reflected in the index, which has been fully demonstrated in the listing of heavyweights ICBC and Bank of China. Data show that on July 5, 2006, on the day of listing of BOC, the share price gapped 0.83 yuan higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index gapped 74 points. At the close, BOC closed at 3.78 yuan, up 0.70 yuan, contributing 56 points to the index, while the market only rose 37.0 1 point. After deducting the influence of BOC, the market actually fell by nearly 20 points. On June 27th, 2006, 10, the listing of ICBC repeated the first day of listing of BOC. The market opened 36 points higher because ICBC opened, with a gap of 0.28 yuan. Then with the gradual decline of ICBC, the index also fluctuated. On the last trading day, ICBC only rose 0. 16 yuan over the issue price, but contributed 2 1 point to the index, while the market fell 2.5% that day. This is just the impact of the listing of two heavyweights on the Shanghai Composite Index. According to WIND's statistics, from May 9, 2006 to the end of 2006, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a total of 13 new shares, with a total inflated market value of 404.9 billion yuan based on the opening price on the first day and a total inflated market value of 365.438+002 billion yuan based on the closing price on the first day.

The phenomenon that the new shares are included in the index on the first day of listing leads to the inflated index, which makes the Shanghai Composite Index increasingly distorted. This has aroused widespread concern in the industry. With the continuous return of large-cap blue-chip stocks, the inflated index will become more and more serious if we do not change the regulation that new shares are included in the first day of listing. For example, China Life Insurance 65438, which was listed on10.9, has a total share capital of 28.265 billion shares and a total market value of 10458 billion, making it the third largest heavyweight after ICBC and BOC. Not affected by the first day of China Life Insurance's opening, the Shanghai Composite Index continued the trend of the previous trading day, steadily and steadily throughout the day, without repeating the scene of the first day of listing of Bank of China and ICBC.

The first day of IPO is not included in the index, which is of great significance to the smooth operation of the stock index, because with the smooth return of China Life, it can be predicted that in the near future, more high-quality aircraft carriers will return to the A-share market, such as China Mobile, China Petroleum and other stocks, and the premium income of these stocks in the secondary market will far exceed that of Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other stocks. If the index is included, the index will swell by several hundred points instead of dozens. It is not far from the market participants' prediction that the market will reach 4000 points or even 1000 points. Therefore, it is an important measure to ensure the authenticity and smooth operation of the index that the management announces the inclusion of new shares in the index after ten trading days.

Shanghai Composite Index Return to Coordinate Position

Since its establishment, the Shanghai Composite Index has been occupying a coordinate position in the minds of investors. Generally speaking, whether investors can outperform the Shanghai Composite Index is the benchmark. However, in 2006, this benchmark was gradually diluted, and more investors took the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as a reference, and the Shanghai Composite Index was gradually marginalized. The reason is that the addition of heavyweights has raised the Shanghai Composite Index. Under the distorted market conditions, it is a bit inappropriate to use the index to measure whether it outperforms the broader market. Let's take the data of 1 to the end of 2006 as an example. From June 1 to February 1 in 2006, the cumulative increase of Shanghai Composite Index was 63%. As the backbone of institutional investment-open-end funds, only Harvest Service Value-added Industry Fund outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in this range, reaching 68.90%, while other funds failed to achieve the same period increase. We believe that the inflated index of IPO is one of the main reasons why the fund failed to outperform the broader market. If the inflated number of new shares listed in the second half of the year is deducted, the actual increase of the Shanghai Composite Index is about 53%. If this is taken as a benchmark, most funds in the market still outperform the Shanghai Composite Index. Based on this, it is not difficult for us to understand that people in the industry exclaimed that "the distorted Shanghai Composite Index can no longer mislead the market." After revising the new index rules, it will effectively eliminate the index distortion and make the Shanghai Composite Index closer to the investor's income level and return to the coordinate position.

The Influence of New Index Rules on Investors

2006 is the first year of China stock market. During this year, profound changes have taken place in China's securities market: the share-trading reform ended smoothly, the total market value of securities easily doubled, the annual increase of Shanghai Composite Index reached the highest in the world, and the ranks of institutional investors developed rapidly, all of which happened when investors were still cautious. When investors really realized that the China stock market had really stood at the entrance of the bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index, led by several heavyweights, easily crossed the historical high of 2,245 points. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully stood above 2800 points. Faced with such a high index, ordinary small and medium-sized investors dare not act rashly, and even under the influence of this thinking, they have missed many opportunities. At present, the market in 2007 also opened brilliantly in the atmosphere of bull market, and as the first new regulation in 2007, it also kicked off the supervision and control.

From the perspective of foreign mature markets, the time from the first day of listing to inclusion in the index depends on the average fluctuation range of new shares after listing. It will take a long time for new shares to be included in the index if the market fluctuates greatly in the initial stage of listing. According to the domestic market situation, the first few trading days of most new shares are full of monkeys, but after 10 trading days, the stock price basically tends to be stable. At this time, if it is included in the comprehensive index, it will not cause too much fluctuation to the index, so that the index can more truly reflect the average investment income level of the market.

From another point of view, the new index rules laid the foundation for the smooth operation of stock index futures, because according to the old index calculation method, if there are heavyweights listed in the month when the stock index futures contract expires, the index will be inflated, and if it is not turned around in time, it will cause huge losses to investors who buy bearish stock index futures or sell bullish stock index futures.

Although the first day of IPO is not included in the index, which eliminates the phenomenon of inflated index on the first day of IPO, in the era of full circulation, the sharp rise and fall of heavyweights will also distort the index. At present, among the 884 constituent stocks of the Shanghai Composite Index, ICBC, BOC and Sinopec account for 45% of the top three stocks. The data shows that every time ICBC rises 1 point, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.57 points, and every time BOC rises 1 point, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.06 points. Based on this calculation, since the listing of BOC, the highest inflated index has reached 306 points, and the highest inflated index of ICBC is 503 points. In fact, on the disk, it also truly reflects the phenomenon that investors earn indexes but don't make money. During the rapid pull-up of Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Shanghai Composite Index set a new record every day. In contrast, nearly 70% of the stocks in the market fall every day. On the first trading day of the new year, nearly 80% of the stocks in the two cities rose, and the trend of individual stocks seriously deviated from the broader market. Therefore, the current pattern that the stock index is still dominated by heavyweights will not change, and the era of truly ignoring the index and attaching importance to individual stocks has arrived. In this context, investors can only look at the rise and fall of the index dialectically while recognizing the development direction of the stock market.