The People's Bank of China announced on July 2nd1that China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies since July 2nd12005. According to the reasonable equilibrium level of exchange rate, the RMB appreciated by 2% against the US dollar, that is, 1 US dollar against 8. 1 1 RMB. The central bank has adopted a floating exchange rate system for RMB appreciation, which shows that the managed exchange rate system promised by 1994 has changed from pegged to a basket of currencies, and the exchange rate system is more flexible.
Exchange rate risk is always a problem in the operation of import and export enterprises, and it is abnormal without exchange rate risk. Facing the managed floating exchange rate system of RMB, enterprises engaged in import and export business and possessing foreign exchange assets should take into account the source and use of funds, their own financial resources and the specific situation of the foreign exchange market to actively respond. What will domestic import and export enterprises do in the face of RMB appreciation?
Avoid risks through hedging schemes. Locking the exchange rate is a good way for export enterprises to deal with the appreciation of RMB. Export enterprises should settle foreign exchange in time, especially in US dollars. The spot trading contract of the enterprise shall be fulfilled immediately, and the recent trading contract shall be fulfilled in time. At the same time, sign as many forward contracts as possible. If you can't sign them, try to lock the forward exchange rate.
For some enterprises with long production cycle of export products, the managed floating exchange rate of RMB brings great uncertainty to enterprises. Therefore, after the export date is determined, you should immediately apply to the bank for price locking and sign a product hedging agreement. In this way, within the agreed period, no matter whether the RMB rises or falls, the profits earned by the enterprise will remain unchanged. In terms of settlement, in order to avoid risks, enterprises can ask for settlement in RMB or other strong currencies when collecting money, or once a contract is concluded, they can buy put options of corresponding foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, stipulating that they can convert US dollars into RMB and other currencies at the agreed price in the future collection period. Or after the contract is concluded, the enterprise sells foreign exchange futures in the foreign exchange market, and it is agreed that the transaction date of the futures is exactly the expected foreign exchange collection date. In this way, the losses caused by RMB appreciation to enterprises are avoided. If the amount of foreign exchange liabilities of an enterprise is relatively large, the best way is to enter the foreign exchange market to buy foreign exchange futures, and the contract period is set at the debt repayment date, or to buy foreign exchange options. All these will avoid huge foreign exchange losses that may occur in the future at a relatively small cost.
Preserving and increasing the value of foreign exchange investment. The foreign exchange assets of enterprises are not only affected by changes in interest rates, but also by changes in exchange rates. Faced with a managed floating exchange rate, enterprises can invest in foreign financial products such as treasury bonds, funds and foreign exchange through bank corporate wealth management products. You can also choose appropriate financial instruments, such as foreign exchange transactions, structured deposits, forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange, forward interest rate agreements, etc. , to achieve value preservation and profitability. The currency, term and amount of income and expenditure of many enterprises do not match, and the hidden exchange rate risk will directly lead to more uncertainties in the payment cost, income accounting and financial forecast of enterprises. Therefore, import and export enterprises should comprehensively consider all factors, be cautious about the use of foreign exchange funds by their counterparts, and try their best to improve rate of return on capital on the basis of controlling risks. At present, there are various foreign exchange investment and wealth management products, so enterprises must "do what they can" and choose products according to their own risk tolerance and expected rate of return.
Let customers share the cost. Sharing the loss of profit margin compression caused by RMB appreciation with customers is a natural way for many export enterprises to avoid risks. Take silk products as an example. Because silk is a monopoly product in China, it is acceptable for foreign enterprises to increase the price of silk due to the appreciation of RMB, that is, the price of silk should be appropriately increased, and the principle of price increase must match the exchange rate of the country. A person in charge of a silk import and export company in Beijing said that the company is ready to transfer some risks to foreign businessmen who trade with it appropriately to make up for the losses caused by RMB appreciation.
But there is a risk of losing customers. In fact, raising the price is not an easy task. Chai, chairman of Guangdong Xuelaite Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd., an exporter of lighting products in Foshan, said that this appreciation of 2% will not have much impact on the company, but if it continues to appreciate, it will put great pressure on enterprises, because it is very troublesome for foreign trade enterprises to renegotiate prices with foreign customers. Their order is usually one year, and it is difficult for foreign customers to accept the price increase. For pure foreign trade enterprises, the purchase price can also be lowered. In addition, other hedging methods include "adjusting import and export ratio" and "adjusting import and export countries and regions".
Accelerate product upgrades. The appreciation of RMB is beneficial for enterprises to increase the import of high-end equipment, especially for enterprises with high requirements for capacity expansion, which will use the appreciation of RMB to import foreign equipment, add or replace existing production equipment, and increase capital expenditure on fixed assets; At the same time, large enterprise groups will also increase the pace of overseas expansion, make rational use of financial leverage, and implement globalization strategy through mergers and acquisitions to reduce the impact of domestic market fluctuations. Therefore, product upgrading is an inevitable challenge. At the same time, we can also establish cooperative relations with overseas parts enterprises to jointly launch new products. The increasing purchasing power of the domestic market has also given new market opportunities for higher-end products. The average profit rate of most general trading enterprises, especially textile export enterprises, is basically within 10%. Although RMB appreciation of 2% has little impact on enterprises now, if enterprises do not step up risk aversion and seek to develop high value-added products, the future living environment will become worse and worse. But for many enterprises, it is obviously impossible to achieve "product upgrade" overnight. Although the appreciation of RMB has affected the growth of export business in the short term, it will help to root out the root cause of the imbalance of export product structure in China in the long run.
Dollar loan. In fact, as early as people's expectations for RMB appreciation were high, lending to the US dollar became the choice of many enterprises. There are at least two advantages for enterprises to borrow dollars from banks: first, the interest rate of dollar loans is lower than that of RMB; Second, the appreciation of the renminbi is directly beneficial to enterprises that use US dollar loans. For example, an enterprise needs US$ 6.5438+0 million to import raw materials, and if it borrows 8.27 million yuan (about US$ 6.5438+0 million), the principal to be returned is also 8.27 million yuan; However, if the RMB appreciates by 2%, and the USD/RMB is changed from 8.27 to 8. 1 1, the enterprise only needs to use 8 1 10000 RMB to buy 10000 USD, then it can repay the bank principal and the net profit is1. Some enterprises exporting handicrafts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are particularly keen on this, and most of them borrow dollars from domestic banks.
The exchange rate of USD against RMB is adjusted to 1 USD against RMB 8. 1 1 Yuan, with an appreciation of 2%, which will not have a substantial impact on capital entry and export trade, and should be within the controllable range. However, it is of great significance to change the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to "peg to a basket of currencies". Its advantage is that according to the market situation, the exchange rate has a lot of room for manoeuvre and the exchange rate flexibility is enhanced. Exchange rate reform is helpful to accelerate the transformation of foreign trade growth mode, promote foreign trade enterprises to actively adjust their structure, and is conducive to the long-term development of enterprises.