In the pig market, the pig price gradually picked up at the end of the month, and the market rally gradually "established". However, the long-short game in the consumer market continues, and the rise in pig prices still constitutes a potential crisis.
In the soybean meal market, the average price of soybean meal fell at a high level, and the market trend was weak. However, in the short term, the spot price of soybean meal is still at a high level, and the market performance of "near strength and far weakness" may be more prominent!
Then, what are the specific changes in the domestic soybean meal, corn and live pig markets? How will the market outlook be interpreted? Today we will analyze it in detail!
First, the price of corn is strong, and the risk of selling pressure is behind!
At the end of June 1 1, domestic spot corn continued to rise. On the one hand, the information of corn supply and demand in the market is transparent, and the rising cost of imported corn leads to a large gap in domestic corn supply. However, this season's corn was expanded by soybeans in the northeast producing area, which led to a certain reduction in corn production, and the market was bullish on corn. On the other hand, grass-roots farmers are reluctant to sell at high prices, but the problem of masks is widespread in China, regional logistics and transportation are difficult, and the purchase and sale of grass-roots corn are not smooth. Northeast China was bought by China Grain Reserve at a high price, with strong support at the bottom of corn price and rising ex-factory listing price, making it difficult to import low-priced grain sources!
Therefore, due to the insufficient supply of staged corn, the number of enterprises in Huanghuai and North China is at a low level. In the fourth quarter, domestic feed enterprises and corn deep processing enterprises just needed to strengthen, and their purchasing enthusiasm increased, and some factories were in a hurry. In the case of a small number, companies have raised prices substantially, and domestic spot corn prices have continued to strengthen!
Taking Shandong as an example, institutional data show that the number of vehicles queuing in front of enterprises in Shandong has remained at around 120~270 in recent weeks, and the number of enterprises is small, and the factory inventory is tight. In order to stabilize production, enterprises are forced to raise prices! The quotations of corn processing enterprises in Shandong are constantly raised. In the last week, the price of corn has increased from 1.479 yuan/kg to 1.542 yuan/kg, and the average price of corn has increased as high as 1.26 yuan/ton! In Shandong, the biochemical price of Weifang lemon rose to 33 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Changle Xuan Ying rose to 3270 yuan/ton!
At present, the purchase and sale of new grain corn in China has not been fully carried out. In North China and Huanghuai areas, after the harvest of new grain corn, the listing of corn has reached a stage peak. However, since then, the sentiment of selling grain at the grassroots level has declined, and the bullish sentiment of farmers' reluctance to sell has warmed up. The problem of masks has further aggravated the difficulty of purchasing and selling at the grassroots level, and the number of enterprises is insufficient. However, the demand is increasingly apparent, and the domestic spot corn price is rising!
At present, the corn market continues to rise in 1 1 month, but there is still a phenomenon of "selling down but not selling up" at the grassroots level. Due to the continuous influence of the domestic mask problem, the price of corn will still fluctuate strongly before New Year's Day. However, with the increase of corn price, the risk of corn sales is also obviously aggravated. After entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' mood of selling grain for the New Year has warmed up and prices have remained high.
Second, the soybean meal fell at a high level!
Recently, the domestic spot soybean meal market has shown a downward trend. However, due to the rising bearish sentiment in the market trend, it is more difficult for soybean meal to rebound. In recent two days, the domestic spot soybean meal market has fallen at a high level, and the market has shown the performance of "near strength and far weakness"!
According to statistics, at present, in the domestic market, the price of oil plants in Shandong and Jiangsu has dropped to 5050~5070 yuan/ton, and that of coastal oil plants in Guangdong has dropped to 5 100 yuan/ton! Judging from the quotation of soybean meal in the urban area, the quotation of Dalian Oil Factory fell by 30 yuan, 43% protein soybean meal fell to 5 140 yuan/ton, and the quotation of Tianjin Oil Factory was 5070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; Shandong Rizhao Oil Factory quoted 5050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; Hubei Wuhan Oil Factory quoted 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan Chengdu Oil Factory quoted 5380 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; Guangdong Dongguan Oil Factory quoted 4960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton;
According to institutional analysis, with the increase of soybean arrival in Hong Kong recently, the operating rate of mainstream oil plants has increased, and the supply capacity of soybean meal has gradually recovered. It is understood that the operating rate of domestic mainstream oil plants is from 52. 1 19 ~ 25, and the operating rate of oil plants has soared. Therefore, the market's expectation of loose soybean meal supply in the future is more consistent!
However, in the short term, due to the slow increase of domestic soybean meal inventory and the mask problem, there is still a strong demand for stocking at the downstream demand side, and the supply pressure of spot soybean meal exists. Therefore, soybean meal will rebound in the short term. However, according to the agency's calculation, nearly100000 tons of soybeans will enter Hong Kong in June, and the domestic soybean meal supply will be further improved in April 38+February, and the spot soybean meal price will continue to fall.
Third, the rise in pig prices is established!
From1October 20th to1October 28th, 1 165438, the domestic pig market entered a period of cyclical decline. Although the fourth quarter entered the traditional consumption peak season, due to the irrational rise in pig prices in September, domestic pork prices rose, consumption overdrawn, and demand continued to be bleak for a long time. The market standard fertilizer spread continues to collect pigs, and the pessimism at the breeding end is fermented. Collectivized pig enterprises have shown the performance of price reduction, and the domestic pig price has dropped significantly. This round of pig prices has dropped by as much as 6.5 1 yuan/kg, and the pig price has dropped by as much as 23%!
The extremes meet, and the pig price rises irrationally. This round of pig price falls more than expected, and the market breeding side resists the price reduction. 1 1 At the end of the year, the pig price gradually got rid of the decline, and the breeding end became equally bullish and reluctant to sell. However, with the resistance of this round of cold weather, the pig price became a "loyal wife" and the market rebound gradually established!
The data shows that165438+June 30th, the average price of live pigs rose to 22. 13 yuan/kg, up 0. 15 yuan from the previous day, and the market showed the performance of "two consecutive rises". Pig prices in northern and southern China have generally increased, and the price difference between high and low areas has also slightly expanded!
At present, the average price of live pigs in the three northeastern provinces is 2 1.9 yuan/kg. The price of live pigs in North China, Shanxi, Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin markets has gradually surpassed that of 22 yuan/kg, and the Beijing-Tianjin market is 22.8 yuan/kg sideways. In South China and Southwest China, the market performance is average. The market in Sichuan and Chongqing is sideways around 22.5 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has generally risen to 23.66 yuan.
This round of pig price increase has been established, but the market still shows strong fluctuations. At this stage, residents' purchasing enthusiasm is generally boosted, and food consumption in restaurants and canteens is still affected by the problem of masks. The key to support the increase in pig prices lies in the increase in reluctance to sell at the breeding end, the decrease in pig slaughter and the increase in downstream orders at slaughterhouses. The enthusiasm of some food factories in the south to purchase white pigs has increased, and the output of some bacon enterprises has increased!
However, as the weather turns cold, the southern region generally welcomes good bacon, and the support for rising pig prices will be further strengthened. Especially at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the slaughter plan of large pig enterprises is reduced, while the sentiment of retail investors and secondary fattening is picking up, and the performance of weak market supply and strong demand will be intensified. Before mid-June 65438+February, the pig price will reach a stage high point, and some institutions predict that the pig price is expected to climb to around 24~25 yuan/kg.
Be alert! The risk of corn selling was left behind, the price of pigs rose and the soybean meal fell at a high level. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!