The recent surge in oil prices is the result of structural changes in the oil market. The reason is:
First, the recovery of the world economy has led to a substantial increase in oil demand, and the demand for light oil products-naphtha, gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil has increased significantly.
Second, the world crude oil output has increased substantially, but the growth of low-sulfur light crude oil output is limited, mainly from the growth of high-sulfur heavy crude oil output. Most of the crude oil recently increased by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing countries is high-sulfur heavy crude oil. We judge that the future trend of international crude oil is that the output of low-sulfur light crude oil will stagnate, while the output of high-sulfur heavy crude oil will increase substantially.
Third, in the past decade, the global oil refining industry has been under-invested, resulting in insufficient processing capacity, especially secondary processing capacity. These conditions lead to a sharp increase in the demand for low-sulfur light crude oil in refineries, while the demand for high-sulfur heavy crude oil is limited, which leads to an increasing price gap between low-sulfur light crude oil and high-sulfur heavy crude oil. This structural change has led to a sharp increase in the global demand for low-sulfur light crude oil, which has prompted the futures price of Texas light crude oil, its benchmark crude oil, to skyrocket. Due to the limited production potential of low sulfur light crude oil, it is difficult to improve the secondary processing capacity in a short time, and this situation will last for several years. This situation leads to the polarization of the world's refining industry: the profits of refineries that can process high-sulfur heavy crude oil will rise sharply, while those with insufficient secondary processing capacity will suffer serious losses. This situation will promote global investment in the oil refining industry, especially the expansion of secondary processing capacity.
Fourth, OPEC oligopoly. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has 1 1 member countries, with oil reserves accounting for 78% of the world's total reserves, production accounting for 40% of the world's total output and exports accounting for 55% of the world's total trade volume. Therefore, for a long time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has played a huge role in the world oil market. In recent years, although the oil production and export volume of Russia and some African countries have greatly increased, the oil export volume of these countries is relatively small, and there is no effective organizational system to compete with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. After the plunge of oil price in the international market from 65438 to 0998, faced with the excellent situation of the current global oil market, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is bound to strengthen the control of oil supply in order to obtain maximum benefits. Since the end of the Iraq war last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced three production cuts to prevent a sharp drop in oil prices. These announced production cuts have led to a sharp rise in oil prices in the international market, and the news of production cuts announced in February 10 even raised oil prices to the highest level in recent years.
Fifth, the world economic growth is too dependent on oil, which reduces the elasticity of oil demand. At present, the acceleration of global economic growth has promoted the strong growth of petroleum products market, especially the rapid increase of oil consumption in developing countries represented by China, which has increased the dependence of economic growth on oil demand. The economy of the United States, the largest consumer of oil, also began to recover last year, and its oil consumption increased rapidly, resulting in a continuous decline in its inventory level. In the first quarter, its commercial crude oil inventory fell to a new low in more than 20 years. At present, its crude oil inventory in the United States is more than 20 million barrels lower than the five-year average, and it is also lower than the "minimum inventory operating point" of 270 million barrels recognized by the American Petroleum Council. The sharp increase in global oil demand weakened the elasticity of demand, so when oil prices rose sharply, oil demand did not drop significantly.
Sixth, the political situation in major oil-producing areas is unstable. Iraq's oil reserves rank second in the world after Saudi Arabia. After the end of the Iraq war last year, people in the international oil market generally believed that Iraq would quickly resume production and increase exports, thus having a huge impact on the global oil market. But so far, Iraq's oil production and export facilities are still often destroyed by militants, and its oil export volume is still far from 2 million barrels per day before the war, and there has not been a sharp drop in oil prices in the international market due to Iraq's resumption of exports. Venezuela is the fifth largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, exporting 6,543.8+700,000 barrels of oil to the United States every day, accounting for 654.38+05% of the total oil imports of the United States. Due to the political turmoil in Venezuela, the relationship between Venezuela and the United States has continued to deteriorate. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has repeatedly warned the United States not to interfere in its internal affairs, or it will cut off oil exports to the United States. Chavez's statement clearly contributed to the rise in oil prices. In addition, the Spanish bombing in March 1 1 and the Israeli assassination of Yassin on March 22 made the situation in the Middle East more tense and contributed to the rise of oil prices.
The rise of the world oil price level is the embodiment of the return of oil value. Because oil is non-renewable energy, with the continuous growth of human consumption, the supply trend of oil resources is less and less. So its value will be higher and higher. Although the exploration and exploitation technology is further improved, we will find more new oil resources for exploitation. However, the increase of mining difficulty will increase the cost of mining, thus further pushing up the price of crude oil. For example, the average crude oil production cost in North America increased from15 USD/barrel in 1999 to1USD, while in Europe it increased from 1 1 USD to1USD. Although the proven oil reserves in the world are huge, the exploitation cost of new oil fields will increase by 100% compared with10 years ago. Therefore, it is difficult to change the upward trend of oil prices unless the world economy falls into recession or new alternative energy sources undergo revolutionary changes. Considering that the supply of light crude oil will be in short supply and the peak of oil consumption in winter is coming, Texas light crude oil will remain at a high level, and the unusually cold weather and refinery shutdown accidents may stimulate its price to rush to 60 US dollars/barrel. According to authoritative research, global oil and gas resources can be consumed 170 years. There will be no shortage of oil supply in the future, but consumers need to pay higher prices, which is an inevitable development trend.
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