Adhere to the idea of doing more in agricultural product investment.
Zeng: Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim are important consumption areas of PVC. The hardest hit areas of this "power shortage" happened to be in the Yangtze River Delta region such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hunan and Chongqing, and the impact on PVC demand naturally triggered market expectations. However, it is understood that since the experience of energy saving and emission reduction policy in the second half of 20 10, most processing enterprises in East China have been equipped with diesel power generation equipment on the basis of direct purchase of electricity, which is directly reflected in the relief of diesel supply in East China in the fourth quarter of last year. It can be inferred that small processing enterprises in East China will restart diesel power generation equipment in the mode of power restriction, but some processing enterprises will still limit the influence of film or reduce the operating rate, reduce the demand for raw material PVC, and the specific reduced consumption cannot be calculated. Therefore, on the whole, the power shortage in East China will lead to a certain degree of shrinking demand for PVC.
Corn: From the trend of these two years, corn is the strongest variety, and its planting income is higher than that of wheat, rice and rape. Moreover, from the corn price trend in the past month, the futures price fluctuated and the spot price rose continuously. Moreover, the possibility of importing domestic corn is increasing, and the higher price difference at home and abroad will also support domestic corn. However, due to the possibility of corn being replaced and the recent introduction of fine processing and deep processing policies, the price of corn should not be too optimistic. Through the above analysis, it is also a good choice to buy wheat and throw corn.
Li Jianlei: In recent years, the financial attributes of commodities have been enhanced, and the synchronization between different commodities has been strengthened, mainly because the commodity spring policy has become the dominant factor in the price of this period. In view of the relatively high inflationary pressure this year, I personally think that the compressive monetary policy will continue, but the intensity may be weakened.
Moderator: From the above analysis, how do you expect the prices of major agricultural products such as rice, wheat and cotton to change this year?
Grease: At present, domestic grease is still under great pressure, and cigarette display racks are still in a state of destocking, which will lead to grease being still in a weak state for a period of time. With the passage of time, the weather in the United States will become the dominant market after July, when demand will also pick up, and oil is expected to get rid of the weak state.
It is unlikely that agricultural products will rise sharply.
In terms of non-ferrous metals, this round of power rationing is different from the previous "power shortage" and has obvious regional characteristics. However, judging from the influence of "power cut" on the output and power generation of various provinces, especially the important producing areas of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum, the current "power cut" has limited influence on the high and low levels of aluminum; But the power shortage will push up the spot price of lead ingots to a great extent. Moreover, because the seasonal power shortage is at least 2 months ahead of schedule, which exceeds ordinary expectations, it belongs to the anti-seasonal power shortage and will push up the lead time and spot price.
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The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which should have entered the flood control period, are now facing a serious drought. How much impact will this drought have on the supply of major agricultural products, aquatic products and water and electricity? In this context, how should the commodity market and the stock market operate? In this issue, Ms. Zeng, General Manager of Futures Center, and Mr. Zhang, General Manager of COFCO Futures Department are invited to discuss the above issues.
In addition, this year, interest rates have been raised several times and deposit reserve has been raised to recover huge liquidity, and certain consequences have been obtained. It can also be seen from the chart of the hottest cotton fried last year that the latter is basically in a downward trend. Although there are several hot spots nearby, the deposit reserve has been raised five times and the interest rate has been raised twice this year, which has curbed long-term speculation to some extent.
Zeng: The trend of agricultural products this year has nothing to do with the domestic macro-environment, and a large amount of investment funds have followed suit to push up the futures prices of agricultural products. Taking early indica rice as an example, the biggest increase of indica rice in the past two weeks has exceeded 8%. Because the discrimination in early indica rice producing areas is concentrated in the arid central region, the market has strong expectations for its yield reduction. Therefore, in the context of the overall weak market, the unpopular early indica rice in the market has become the object of capital pursuit.
Wheat: the most promising variety at present. There are two reasons: first, the price difference with other varieties shows that wheat is the weakest variety in recent two years, and the price difference with corn and rice is expanding, indicating that wheat is already in a low value; Second, from the consumption point of view, all feed consumption is not prosperous this year, and the price of corn is seriously high, while the price of soybean meal is low this year, which leads to wheat replacing corn. In the later period, with the strength of international soybean prices, the cost of soybean meal will increase, and the upper hand of wheat will be reflected. If wheat production is reduced this year, it will greatly promote the price.
Tight monetary policy will continue.
But as long as liquidity is still rampant, it will still look for hot spots, speculate on agricultural products and push up commodity prices.
Moderator: Will the rebound of agricultural products and industrial products affect the price trend? Will it have an impact on this year's macroeconomic policy?
Li Jianlei: Rice, wheat and rapeseed are the most affected by drought. The impact of drought on agricultural products can be considered from three angles: output, cost and inflation expectation.
Zeng: whether to stop the current tightening policy mainly depends on two aspects: first, whether the inflation situation can be effectively controlled, mainly focusing on CPI ring data; Second, the domestic economy is growing. If the economy is greatly affected, policies that may be tight will tend to be neutral. Our conclusion is that monetary policy will resume at the end of the third quarter.
Rice and wheat play a very important role in China's food insurance strategy. Wheat, in particular, is the most important agricultural product in China. From the above situation, both rice and wheat have the possibility of reducing production, so we need to pay attention to the later climate change. At present, the yield of early indica rice is uncertain, but the yield of wheat can be determined completely. Even if the output drops by 5%- 10% due to extreme weather, due to China's abundant reserves and perfect auction system, it is unlikely that the price will rise sharply, but it may rise slowly. Judging from the seasonal trend of wheat in recent years, it is especially necessary to pay attention to the price trend of wheat before 10, which may be the key time window for wheat to rise.
Electricity shortage pushed up the price of some varieties.
The effect of drought remains to be seen.
Zeng: With inflation under control later this year, the current tight monetary policy will be gradually relaxed and stabilized. At the same time, China's GDP growth will also slow down.
As far as commodities are concerned, agricultural products should leave more ideas, but pay attention to the time span and distinguish the current situation of each variety from the price structure of related varieties.
Li Jianlei: The impact of power shortage has two levels, one is the impact on the production of enterprises, and the other is to solve the impact of power shortage. The influence of power shortage on the production of enterprises is manifested in the decline of finished product output and the increase of cost, especially the production of industrial products. On the other hand, in order to solve the power shortage problem, in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" issued by the state, it is planned to invest 2.8 trillion yuan in new power plants and 2.6 trillion yuan in power grid transformation, which will directly lead to the continuous increase in the demand for some metals, such as copper.
Moderator: Since the beginning of this year, there has been continuous dry weather in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Huanghuai and other major summer grain producing areas. Especially since April, the precipitation in some areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has decreased by 30%-80% compared with previous years. The latest weather forecast shows that the drought trend is still likely to spread. What is the impact on future crop production?
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First of all, the yield of early indica rice in arid areas accounts for about 55% of China's output, so the impact of drought on early indica rice is the most worthy of attention. However, the weather forecast shows that precipitation will increase widely in June and the overall situation of early rice production is improving. Moreover, due to the drought last year, some enterprises suffered heavy losses, and the possibility of their continuous snapping up this year has also decreased.
In terms of regional distribution, Northeast China and Huanghuai area are the two regions with the largest soybean planting area and the highest yield in China. There is only a small amount of planting in the Yangtze River basin, most of which are summer-sown soybeans, and the planting period is late. At present, the drought has little effect on soybeans.
Early indica rice: optimistic in the short term. However, in the long run, due to the strong regulatory capacity of the state, the price increase will not be great, and in the short term, moderate speculation may occur due to drought.
As for wheat, at present, winter wheat in North China and eastern Huanghuai is at heading stage, most of western Huanghuai, Jianghuai and Jianghan are at filling stage to maturity stage, and most of southwest China is at mature harvest stage. In late May, winter wheat in the southwest of Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan and Southwest China will enter the mature harvest period. Although the winter is dry in Huanghuai area of North China, the soil moisture is sufficient before the winter of 20 10, and the precipitation and watering are timely after the next year's greening. The weather in the later period is more suitable, and the seedling condition of winter wheat is better than the whole. Therefore, on the whole, unless there is extreme weather in the later period, it is unlikely that drought will affect the total wheat output.
Secondly, drought will increase the cost of irrigation, and irrigation per mu of wheat will increase the 50 yuan. Finally, the increase in inflation expectations caused by drought led to hot money speculation in the market, which in turn amplified inflation expectations. Therefore, we need to master and lead.
In terms of cotton, cotton is currently in the stage from emergence to budding. At present, the most important factor affecting cotton growth is temperature, and the demand for water is low, and heavy rainfall is not conducive to cotton growth. Therefore, at present, drought has little effect on cotton growth. But by mid-June, cotton growth will enter bud stage, and there is a certain demand for water. If the drought persists in the later period, it will affect the germination and flowering of cotton, and then affect the yield.
Moderator: Under the above background, how to deal with the 20 1 1 macroeconomic situation in China? Please provide some suggestions on the investment supply of 20 1 1 China stock market and commodity market.
However, according to the evolution law of man-made disasters in the past, it is too early to judge that drought in southern China will have an essential impact on early rice production. Judging the reduction of grain production mainly depends on the affected area, not the affected area. The data of the affected area came out later than that of the affected area and smaller than that of the affected area. So the actual situation may not be as bad as imagined.
Zeng: The contradiction between coal and electricity is the main reason. At present, more than 79% of the installed power supply in China is thermal power. Once the coal supply exceeds demand or the coal price rises, it will have an impact on the power generation supply. When "market coal" meets "planned electricity", it is doomed to struggle with luck? Coal-fired power companies are unwilling, and it is difficult for the government to agree.
In addition, rapeseed sowing has been basically realized at present. According to our investigation, the output of rapeseed has decreased by 5- 10% this year.
Zeng: It mainly depends on one degree, but the temporary rebound is still a change in trend. In absolute terms, the impact of agricultural products on prices is faster and more direct than that of industrial products. With the emergence of drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the market has generally predicted that CPI data may hit a high point again in the future. If the drought continues and the prices of agricultural products continue to rise, it will definitely affect prices and push up CPI. The price of industrial products may be delayed for some time because of the transmission process. If it is possible to solve the influence of drought during this period, even if the price of industrial products is transmitted to the price category, there will not be much change; If these two factors overlap each other, it will affect the price.
Li Jianlei: Judging from the industrial chain of agricultural products, the price increase has reached an extremely dangerous state. What needs to be concerned is the possible increase in the correlation of agricultural products in the later period. For example, from the current profit distribution of agricultural products, the income obtained by the terminal is the most obvious, such as aquaculture, while the profits in the middle and upper reaches are very small. If it is not eliminated, there will be a new round of increase led by livestock products in the later period, which will further promote the whole price level.
Zeng: For rice, although it is an indisputable fact that drought has led to a reduction in production, there is still controversy in the market. Our investigation in Jiangxi and Hunan, the main early rice producing areas, in early May showed that although the drought in Jiangxi was serious, it was mainly concentrated in mountainous areas such as central Jiangxi and southern Jiangxi, where the planting area of early rice was never small. Poyang Lake Plain, the main producing area of early rice, is densely covered with lakes and has a vertical and horizontal water network, or has little influence.
Li Jianlei: Tight monetary policy is dominant this year, which will increase the financing cost of enterprises and reduce the profit margin. Paradoxically, the stock market as a whole will not be very good, but it may be moderately relaxed with the tightening of monetary policy in the later period, which will support the stock market to some extent.
Li Jianlei: As the output of agricultural products is threatened, the production cost has rebounded, and the possibility of rising agricultural product prices is still relatively high. However, judging from the price law in recent years, whether the price of agricultural products in China has risen sharply depends not only on the domestic itself, but also on the varieties that can be self-sufficient abroad, especially in China, and the influence from abroad is also obvious.