For our free-range households, many people think that pigs can be sold at a good price if they are raised well. This idea was indeed correct five years ago, but since 219, the pig market has undergone tremendous changes. We still use the old thinking mode to raise pigs, which can no longer adapt to the present and must be changed.
# Pig #
This year's pig market is a year of "speculation", and it is also the essence and idea of a large number of hunters going to fatten for the second time. The only goal of doing so is to earn "price difference" profits.
enter the market when he thinks the price is low, and then wait until the pig price rises.
If you earn 2 yuan a catty, 3 catties of pigs can earn 6 yuan, and 1, pigs can earn 6, gross profit.
why did the second fattening enter the market at this time?
At present, the price of secondary fattening is about 6.8~7 yuan/kg, and the weight is about 18~23 kg. If you want to earn this money, can you earn it?
1. From the data of many years, the market in the first half of the year is not suitable for the second fattening at all.
2, the Chinese New Year is early this year. From now on, even if you keep pigs for three months, if the price of pigs is about 8 yuan by May, you can only earn a profit of 1 yuan per catty, and a pig earns about 3 yuan. This is our ideal computer method, but if one of your pigs exceeds 24 kilograms, the meat-to-feed ratio will be uneconomical, and more feed consumption and funds will be spent.
3. If your pig weighs at least 3 Jin in May, you should pay attention to the change of a time node here. If you don't realize it in May, it will enter summer in June. Can you still hold it?
4. Now the price of live pigs is close to the bottom, but it does not mean that the price of live pigs will rebound, it may be lower, or the time for grinding the bottom will be prolonged.
The main reason why many people catch the second fattening at this time point is to apply last year's market again, thinking that the pig price will rise in May last year, and this is also the central idea of catching pigs.
5. There is an important point that you haven't found. The pig price will rise in May last year, mainly because the group factory and free-range households went to the production capacity very hard, which eventually led to the increase of pig price. But there was no movement in the pig market this year, and the only thing that changed was the retail investors, but there was no sign or signal from the big group. At the same time, according to various data, the data of fertile sows this year not only did not decrease, but also increased. So,
To sum up, the risk of the last fattening is very high. Although I didn't lose a lot, I was "busy in vain", just a living Lei Feng, working for a feed factory and a pig factory, so now the risk is greater than your profit.
can the piglets go now?
The network is full of opportunities if we don't catch piglets at this time, and the price will rise even higher in the future. It will take longer if we don't catch piglets now, but first of all, we should consider several points:
1. What is the cost of piglets now?
2. Is the price of feed stable, rising or falling during the period of slaughter?
3. How much is the price of live pigs at the time of slaughter? What is the profit?
Now, if piglets are caught, they are basically released from August to September. From the futures point of view, the price of pigs in September is expected to be 9 yuan, so can your pigs make money? If the pig price rises to 1 yuan, you are still profitable, otherwise, you know.
At the same time, whether the price of piglets can come down is hopeless in the short term.
So wait until August-September, if you don't feel profitable, you can press the bar, and you can even press it until the New Year.
but how much is your cost? Be sure to think it over before making a decision! (Personal opinion, for reference only)