In 2020, a serious epidemic crisis occurred in the United States, triggering an economic crisis and a financial crisis. This series of crises can't be digested in the United States, and it can only be passed on to the whole world by printing money crazily. The rise in raw materials is one of the means for the United States to pass on the domestic crisis.
The epidemic is coming. In order to alleviate the domestic economic crisis, the United States printed money crazily, and the total amount of printed money exceeded 5 trillion US dollars. For the United States, the essence of dollar crazy printing is to borrow money from the world at low interest rates.
As we all know, the national debt of the United States has exceeded $27 trillion, and the US government is simply unable to repay the principal and interest of these debts, and the United States is not prepared to repay these debts. The final result can only be that the United States continues to print money, borrowing new debts to pay off old debts, and the inflation caused by printing money will be borne by the whole world. As the saying goes, the United States is in crisis and the whole world is in trouble.
Due to the crazy printing of dollars, the global raw materials have risen sharply, and the production costs of emerging countries have risen sharply. If we can't raise the price of export commodities at the same time, the profit will definitely drop sharply, and even there will be huge losses.
In the case of such a serious epidemic crisis, it is conceivable that it is difficult for commodities exported by emerging countries to raise prices significantly. The final result can only be that the profits of enterprises in these countries are reduced, business risks are increased, workers are working harder, and welfare and wages are not increasing simultaneously. And these are all paying for the crazy printing of dollars.
202 1 The most fundamental reason behind the soaring price of raw materials is the * * * vibration effect caused by various factors such as loose global credit currency, short-term mismatch and imbalance between supply and demand of raw materials, which has continued since last year.
The surge of raw materials is related to the upward trend of V-shaped reversal of international commodity futures prices since the second half of 2020, because international commodities are the main raw materials used in production, processing and manufacturing. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, major economies led by the United States implemented large-scale monetary easing policies to stimulate economic recovery, continuously expanded credit, and a large amount of funds flowed into the financial investment market. In the first half of the year, it first flowed into the liquid stock market, pushing up the stock price, and began to enter the international commodity futures market in the second half of the year. As a result, international commodity futures prices have been rising all the way, and many varieties have hit new highs in recent years. After about half a year, it was transmitted to the spot market, which pushed up the price of raw materials.
In addition, the current sharp rise in raw material prices is not only due to monetary factors, but also to supply and demand factors and short-term cyclical factors. The continuous quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve is the trigger for the rise, but on the other hand, developed economies began to realize large-scale vaccination this year, which brought about the recovery of demand and production. However, the backward developing countries have not yet achieved large-scale inoculation, the production of raw materials has stagnated and semi-stagnated, and the supply is still at a low level, which has aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand from the substantive level.
In addition, in recent years, the world economy has entered a recession stage, and income growth is difficult. Major manufacturing countries have been adjusting supply and reducing production capacity, leading to large-scale capacity reduction of international raw material enterprises. Economic recovery, raw material production capacity can not keep up, but also a major reason for the rise in raw material prices.
Although the price of raw materials has risen sharply this year, I don't think this trend will last long, because from a macro perspective, the world economy has only recovered from the epidemic and has not entered a stage of substantial growth. From a macro point of view, international commodity futures do not have the conditions of super cycle, so the current price has fully reflected expectations, basically returning to the level before the epidemic or even higher. Therefore, the current rally has come to an end, and the trend in March has been reflected. Many commodity prices have fallen back since hitting a high in February, especially industrial metals. Therefore, after a period of time in the future, from the second half of the year, it will be transmitted to the spot market of raw materials, and the price will fall.
In addition, with the economic recovery and inflation, monetary tightening, rising interest rates, strengthening and deleveraging of credit management and debt cancellation will also be widely adopted by countries, which will also affect the financial investment market, commodity market and raw material market, leading to the expected price decline. At present, Russia, Turkey and Brazil have started to raise interest rates to curb inflation caused by rising raw materials.
However, it is impossible to hope that the price of raw materials will return to the level at the time of the epidemic, because after all, now that the epidemic has been controlled and production is recovering, it is generally difficult to lower the price if it rises again. If it continues to rise, it will face greater downside risks. Therefore, from the long-term trend, with the change of dollar monetary policy, it is more likely that raw material prices will operate in a wide range.
Inflation caused by excessive regulation of money and real estate
I think the old capitalist countries in the west are cutting leeks. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, looking around the world, among the major economies, only China has effectively controlled the epidemic, fully recovered its economy and achieved positive growth. Obviously, growth will be consumed. At this time, the foreign economy stagnated or demand and consumption declined. Only China is growing, while global consumption is declining. Relatively speaking, only China is growing. What does it mean to raise commodity prices at this time? Stay alert.
202 1 the increase in raw materials is mainly due to the global water release caused by the printing of money in the United States.