Interest rate:
On Monday, the central bank launched a 265 billion yuan MLF operation to ease the impact of local debt issuance, support the smooth progress of inter-season financing, and encourage banks to continue to provide adequate financing for the real economy. On Monday, the central bank launched a 1 year MLF operation totaling 265 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was flat at 3.30%. The unexpected MLF operation of the central bank will help alleviate the potential impact of the recent accelerated issuance of local bonds on liquidity, support the smooth cross-season of bank funds ahead of schedule in September, and consider that there are 270 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations due from Wednesday to Friday. The central bank may have some intentions to lock in the short term and release the long term, so as to encourage banks to continue to increase credit supply and support the financing of the real economy.
At present, the overall liquidity of banks is relatively abundant, but the credit in August was slightly lower than expected and concentrated on short-term bills, mainly because the willingness of banks to provide medium and long-term credit to the real economy is still weak. In the later period, the broad credit policy mainly focuses on whether to introduce policies to ease the transmission of monetary policy, such as releasing MLF to support the allocation of credit and credit bonds, or encouraging banks to replenish capital to improve the risk appetite of commercial banks.
The central bank's increase in MLF investment has not driven down the interest rate of funds, and the current goal of the central bank is still to keep the funds stable and abundant. It is worth noting that the central bank's increase in MLF on Monday did not drive the interest rate of funds down further. On the contrary, R007 and D007 rose slightly by 2.98BP and 0.25BP respectively, closing at 2.6206% and 2.6209%. We believe that the main goal of the current central bank's monetary policy is to keep the funds stable and abundant, and there is not much room for easing to lead to the obvious downward trend of the capital interest rate center. It is expected that the "price" of funds will remain stable in the future, and the "quantity" will continue to remain reasonably abundant.
The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in September, but it has limited restrictions on China's monetary policy. In the current environment, China's monetary policy still needs to pay attention to domestic fundamentals. In September, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates with a high probability, and the market is once again worried about whether China's monetary policy will follow suit. We believe that under the background that the capital account has not been fully opened, China's monetary policy still has strong independence, and it is more adjusted according to the domestic economic situation. Judging from the current RMB exchange rate, China's balance of payments is still relatively stable, and the US dollar index has dropped from the previous high level, and there is room for further decline in the medium term. After a series of measures to stabilize exchange rate expectations, such as restarting the "countercyclical factor" in August, the RMB exchange rate has shown signs of stabilization, and the need to stabilize the RMB exchange rate by raising interest rates has declined. Judging from China's economic and financial fundamentals, unlike the previous interest rate hikes, the current monetary policy in China has turned to marginal easing, and the interest rate of funds under the broad credit tone may remain stable. Therefore, we believe that it is unlikely that China will follow the Fed's interest rate hike in September, and the fund surface has not yet constituted the main factor of the current bond market fluctuation. It is expected that the overall situation will be stable in the second half of the year.
Boosted by the launch of MLF, the bond market yield fell slightly on Monday. In terms of bonds, the main contracts of 5Y and 10Y treasury bonds futures rose slightly by 0. 1 1% and 0. 10% respectively. In terms of cash bonds, the yields of China Bond 10Y China Bond and China Bond decreased by 0.24BP, 1.34BP to 3.6327% and 4.22 10% respectively.
The effect of the easy credit policy is sometimes delayed, but it will not disappear. It is estimated that the adjustment of the bond market is not over yet, and the adjustment height may be around 3.7%-3.8%. At present, the focus of the long-short game in the bond market is whether the wide credit policy can effectively boost economic growth. We believe that the effect of the easy credit policy will sometimes be delayed, but it will not disappear. At present, the infrastructure investment environment in the second half of the year is obviously better than that in the first half of the year, regardless of the financing end or the project end. Infrastructure investment is more sensitive to capital and projects. The closer to the end of the year, the more likely the growth rate of infrastructure will rebound. In the case of extremely pessimistic market expectations, we need to pay attention to the arrival of the inflection point. It is estimated that the adjustment of the bond market is not over yet, and the adjustment time of the bond market will be concentrated in September, June, 65438+ 10 and the first half of June 165438+ 10, and the yield of 10 is expected to be adjusted to 3.7%-3.8%.
Credit part:
Looking at the net financing of industrial bonds by industry, the top five net financing scales in 18 were comprehensive 38.9 billion, real estate 4.4 billion, medical biology 3 billion, automobiles 2 10 billion, computers/kloc-0.9 billion, household appliances 900 million and architectural decoration 500 million respectively. The top five net financing scales are commercial trade-78.6 billion, chemical industry-78.9 billion, transportation-97.3 billion, mining-654.38+000.9 billion, and public utilities-654.38+029.4 billion. On the whole, the scale of net financing is more than that of 17. The financing situation of the real industry through industrial bonds has not been significantly improved, and the effect of the full credit policy has a certain time lag, so the full credit policy needs to be continued. Among them, the industries that have rebounded are computer, general, computer, mechanical equipment, transportation and communication industries. The industries with a large decline are real estate decline 1 164 billion, commercial trade decline 82 billion, and chemical industry decline 54.4 billion.
market dynamic
Secondary market: The bond market rebounded slightly on Monday. The funds are stable, and the pledged repo rate between banks and deposits is all down. In terms of bonds, treasury bond futures closed slightly higher. Today, the main bonds futures contracts 5Y and 10Y rose slightly by 0.1%and 0. 10% respectively. In terms of cash bonds, the yield of interest rate bonds declined slightly, and the yield of 10Y bonds basically closed at 3.6327%, while the yield of 10 CDB declined slightly 1.3bp to 4.22 10%.