Author: Tang 20 17-07- 13 22:45
Rebar rose to a four-year high.
Starting from June 6th this year, rebar futures began to rebound, and achieved gratifying results for seven consecutive years, rising by 500 yuan/ton to around 3,500 yuan/ton in 20 working days. Yesterday, rebar rose steadily after opening, and quickly reached the 3500 mark, setting a new high since 20 14 and 1. Today, the thread continued its upward trend, and once broke through the 3600 mark in intraday trading, reaching a maximum of 36 15 yuan per ton.
At the same time, the spot market of rebar has also risen simultaneously, and the quotations of some rebar spot products in Mianyang, Shijiazhuang, Taizhou, Shaoxing, Nanjing and Yinchuan have exceeded 4,000 yuan.
Not only is the trend strong, but the turnover and positions of rebar are also amazing. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the turnover, transaction amount and positions of rebar ranked first among all varieties in the futures market, accounting for 22.90% of the national market. It's amazing, rebar!
Behind the strong rise of thread is inseparable from the promotion of policies.
So, what has promoted the recent strong rise of rebar?
According to media reports, in the first half of the year, China banned and shut down more than 600 strip steel production enterprises, involving a production capacity of about1.200 million tons. At present, all related enterprises have stopped production, and water and electricity are cut off. In order to ensure the complete ban and prevent resurgence, the state requires that on the basis of local self-examination, special inspections be conducted in areas where "strip steel" is banned in August this year, and those places that are not banned in place will be reported to the State Council as negative examples and dealt with severely according to laws and regulations.
Therefore, many analysts believe that the strong rise of rebar cannot be separated from the promotion of policies.
Zhang Yufeng, chief analyst of AVIC Securities, believes that the local regulations and steel de-capacity have great positive effects on improving the relationship between supply and demand and enhancing the profitability of steel mills. Judging from the steel market in the first half of the year, the overall profit of steel mills is still high. From June to May, the total profit of China steel industry reached 1053 1 billion yuan, up 93.5% year-on-year. The capacity vacancy caused by the policy directly enables steel mills to gain greater bargaining power downstream, leading to high steel prices or even an upward trend, while the removal of "strip steel" leads to loose supply of scrap steel and suppresses iron ore prices, and the benefits of the steel industry will continue to improve.
Wang Jianhua, chief steel analyst of Shanghai Steel Union (stock: 300226), said that this round of steel price increase reflects the return of value, and steel prices will fluctuate at a high level in the second half of the year, so there is no big policy risk. With the promotion of "strip steel" cleaning and rectification, China will complete the transformation from output control to capacity optimization, which will not only improve the problem of overproduction, but also form a long-term support for steel prices from the supply side. In addition, the most favorable support for steel prices in the second half of the year is policy.
Ji Peisen, a researcher at COFCO Futures, said that the relative strength of thread is the result of the combined effect of lagging economic trend and limited supply side. Affected by the slowdown in automobile sales and output growth, hot coils and rubber took the lead in March, which dragged down the decline of threads. However, the decline of infrastructure and real estate investment lagged behind that of automobiles, and due to the important policy of eliminating "strip steel", a large number of local steel bar consumption turned to ordinary rebar, and the inertia of terminal demand and the short-term limitation of supply end led to the continuous high demand for threads. After the thread demand was temporarily suppressed during the price decline in March-April, it rebounded strongly in April-May, and the spot price kept rising. The discount range of futures relative to spot continued to expand, reaching more than 800 at the highest. Therefore, the thread futures maintained the repair discount in April-June, and the increase in May and this wave of increase since mid-June were obvious repair discount markets.
Rebar futures show signs of peaking
At present, rebar has reached a new high in four years. Many traders and analysts also expressed their views on whether it can maintain a strong rise in the future.
Gibson, a researcher at COFCO Futures, said that in March and April this year, with the support of good economic data, whether China's economy should start a new economic cycle triggered a heated debate. However, with the increasing number of real estate control policies, the introduction of financial deleveraging and other policies, and the obvious increase in market interest rates, the voice of the new cycle has obviously weakened, and the judgment of returning to the downward trend after economic stimulus has gradually become the mainstream understanding of the market. For the main line closely related to the macro-economy, under the control of the above macro-policies, there is also no new rising cycle, and the so-called new rising cycle is just an illusion.
Because there is no new rising cycle of thread, the futures market is repairing premium, so there is room for the main thread to rise. Compared with the current contract price, the headspace mainly depends on the willingness of long-term capital to repair the premium range and occasional fluctuation factors. The high fluctuation of thread determines that the fluctuation of its 100-200 point is very normal. At present, the premium of the main contract of thread is reasonable. If the spot price does not continue to rise, the main thread contract will be renewed.
Some insiders also believe that since July, the main rebar futures contract 17 10 has fluctuated widely in the range of 3350-3480 yuan/ton, and the market focus has shifted from the macro level to the supply and demand side. When the rectification of "strip steel" enters the final stage and the steel inventory turns to an inflection point, it is difficult for steel mills to maintain high profits, and steel prices may turn around again.
In this regard, the author also has some own views. Today, the main thread contract has risen sharply, the spot price of construction steel continues to rise, and the overall futures price is still on the rise. At present, there are still factors supporting the current price of rebar. However, as steel consumption enters the off-season and the basis difference is repaired, the author believes that the upward pressure on rebar will be increasing, and the market has accumulated a large increase in the early stage, and there may be a callback, so it is necessary to plan ahead and operate cautiously.
Risk warning: investment is risky, and this report is only a personal opinion, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.