Tracing back to the source of human civilization, gold, as a "universal equivalent", has played a more important monetary role in history. The real gold market started from 197 1 month. The United States announced the decoupling of gold and the dollar, and then gold officially began to market, which triggered gold investment. Today, more than 40 years later, the gold market has been fully integrated into the international or a financial system. Specifically, the international gold market has been integrated into the international gold financial system. In particular, it is very important to see that in recent years, the proportion of investment in global gold demand is increasing. Aside from the dispute over the attribute of the gold market-the function of preserving value, as long as gold is integrated into the huge financial system, the long-term development of this market can be guaranteed; Judging from the current situation, the future gold market will continue to maintain prosperity on a global scale.
1. Present situation and development trend of China gold investment market
Status of 1. 1
It can be said that the development of China's gold investment market is very special. The simple summary can be summarized as: short time, fast speed, simple external environment experience and simple understanding of gold investment by market participants. Looking back on the process of gold marketization in China, it is only 10 years. The following are important events that determine the present situation and future development of China's domestic gold market.
In April of 20001year, Dai Xianglong, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced the cancellation of the planned management system of "unified purchase and distribution" of gold and the establishment of a gold exchange in Shanghai.
On 2001June 1 1 day, the central bank officially launched the weekly quotation system of gold prices to adjust domestic gold prices according to changes in international market prices.
200 1 1 1 28, simulation operation of Shanghai Gold Exchange.
On June 5438+1October 65438+July, 2002, during the trial operation of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Admiralty Gold Co., Ltd. and Beijing Caishikou Department Store traded 3 kilograms of No.2 gold at a price of 83.5 yuan per gram.
On June 30th, 2002, 10, the Shanghai Gold Exchange officially opened, and the China gold market was fully opened.
In April 2003, the People's Bank of China cancelled the examination and approval system for gold production, processing and circulation, and changed it to the industrial and commercial registration registration system, marking the full opening of the gold commodity market.
On June165438+1October 18, 2003, China Bank "Huang Jinbao" was piloted in Shanghai, which opened the prelude for commercial banks to participate in the gold market.
In June, 2004, Shanghai Gold Exchange launched "small gold bars" business for ordinary investors.
On July 8, 2005, China Industrial and Commercial Bank and Shanghai Gold Exchange jointly launched personal physical gold investment business.
In 2005, the state officially approved the gold investment analyst as a new profession.
On June 5438+February, 2006, China Bank launched the gold option business of "one year old" and "two years old" for individual investors.
On February 25th, 2006, Shanghai Gold Exchange officially launched the AU 100g physical gold investment product for individual investors. In September 2007, with the consent of the State Council, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the listing of gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in the Reply on Agreeing to the Listing of Gold Futures Contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (Futures Zi [2007] 158).
On June 9, 2008, 65438+, gold futures was officially listed on Shanghai Futures Exchange.
20 10 On August 3rd, the People's Bank of China, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the CSRC jointly issued the document "Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Gold Market" (Yinfa [2065438+00] 21kloc-0/No.).
Opinions on Promoting the Development of Gold Market by Six Ministries interprets the current situation of China's gold market from six aspects, and looks forward to the future of China's gold market, aiming at clarifying the development orientation of the gold market, establishing a gold market system, promoting the healthy development of the gold market and effectively preventing market risks.
This is the first time in the history of China's gold development, and it is also a heavyweight joint publishing action since the founding of New China 60 years ago. It is a great leap in the golden history of China.
In the past decade, the pace of gold marketization in China has made great strides forward. At present, China gold market has initially formed three major markets: exchange system, banking system and physical gold merchant system. Investment products include physical gold, exchange products, gold futures, bank market maker products and investment fund products.
Statistics show that (Figure 1)20 1 1, the turnover of various gold products in Shanghai Gold Exchange was 7,438.463 tons, up 23.03% year-on-year; The transaction amount * * * was RMB 247,726,438+068 billion, a year-on-year increase of 53.45%. 20 1 1 year, the global output of mineral gold is only 2,809.5 tons, and the annual output of gold in China is 360.957 tons, ranking first in the world since 2007. That is to say, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange in 20 1 1 year is almost 2.6 times of the global gold mineral output and 20.6 times of the annual gold output of China. The potential of China's gold market is evident.
Figure 1 Gold Trading Volume and Amount of Shanghai Gold Exchange
Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange
In terms of gold futures, according to the transaction tonnage, the total turnover of China gold futures 20 1 1 was 7934.8 17 tons, accounting for 4.00% of the world, and its share increased 1.88% compared with 20 10 (Figure 2). However, according to the number of transactions, the gold futures of Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped from the seventh place in the world at 20 10 to the eighth place at 2010.
Figure 2 Trading volume of gold and futures on Shanghai Futures Exchange
Source: Shanghai Futures Exchange
Due to the debt crisis and economic turmoil in European countries, investors in China have maintained a very high enthusiasm for the gold market of 20 1 1. From the domestic gold business of 20 1 1, the trading volume of dollar gold options and gold lending among commercial banks increased the fastest, which was three times higher than that of 20 10, and the trading volume of gold leasing business also increased by nearly 1 0. Relatively speaking, the traditional gold business of commercial banks, whether it is self-operated brand gold or agent gold business, still maintains a good growth trend. Among them, the trading volume of self-owned brand gold increased by more than 64% compared with 20 10, and the growth rate of agency gold business even reached 102% (Figure 3).
Figure 3 Year-on-year growth rate of domestic gold business of domestic commercial banks in 2011year.
Source: Major domestic commercial banks.
In terms of overseas business types, 20 1 1 commercial banks' gold forward and swap businesses have the strongest growth momentum, with year-on-year growth rates of 4 1.35% and 23.48% respectively (Figure 4). It can be seen that with the enthusiastic investment of market participants, the gold trading of 20 1 1 domestic commercial banks has become increasingly active. Under such a good background, it is expected that all kinds of gold investment products to be launched by commercial banks in the future will continue a good development trend, and the transaction scale will also show an expanding trend.
Figure 4 Year-on-year growth rate of overseas gold business of domestic commercial banks in 2011.
Source: Major domestic commercial banks.
1.2 Future development trend of gold market
1.2. 1 The market potential is huge.
After more than 30 years of rapid economic development, China's total economic output has ranked second in the world, second only to the United States, and residents' savings have exceeded 29 trillion yuan. China has become the world's largest gold producer and the second largest gold consumer, but China's per capita annual gold consumption is only about 0.26 grams, far below the world average of 0.7 grams, which reflects the great potential of China's gold market. At the same time, we can see that the demand for gold investment has exploded since 2005. According to the report released by the World Gold Council, the retail investment demand of gold in Chinese mainland has jumped from 1 1 ton in 2005 to nearly 245 tons in 201/year. The trading volume of gold in commercial bank accounts is 20 1 1 at least 3,000 tons. It is estimated that the spot investment market in the future (mainly including gold bars, gold coins and silver coins, etc.). ) will exceed 1000 billion yuan. With the continuous introduction of gold investment derivatives, it is estimated that the annual market turnover will be above 10 trillion yuan in the future.
1.2.2 Investment products are more diversified.
At present, market investment products have initially possessed diversified characteristics. Gold spot and related products, paper gold, gold futures, gold funds and other derivative investment products have come out one after another. Investors can choose according to their own characteristics. With the intensification of international gold price fluctuation, RMB will eventually be freely convertible, and gold producers and distributors need to do more risk management to avoid the risks brought by RMB exchange rate to producers. By then, a wealth of risk management tools will appear. Among them, the demand of hedged enterprises will further expand. Spot enterprises will transfer the risk of price fluctuation through the gold investment market, and the requirement of controlling production and processing costs and profits is becoming more and more obvious. This will bring more demand for products and services to the gold investment market. This is also the main reason for the continuous development of futures trading. It is expected that the function of avoiding risks in the gold futures market will gradually play a role.
1.2.3 intangible market development (OTC market)
Judging from the development track of the international gold market, the transaction volume of the intangible market accounts for nearly 90% of the whole gold market. However, there is no exchange in the whole London gold market, and its transactions are composed of five major gold merchants and customer networks in an "invisible way"; Zurich gold market also has no formal organizational structure, mainly through the three major Swiss banks to buy and sell for customers and is responsible for liquidation. I believe that the future development of China will follow this track, and a large number of transactions will be completed through the intangible market, led by banks and powerful gold merchants. With the development of intangible market, a huge gold lending and forward trading market will be born. It is predicted that the annual capacity of China gold lending market will be immeasurable in the future, which will generate huge capital flow, further amplifying the effectiveness of gold financing and capital appreciation.
1.2.4 The brand effect of gold merchants will become increasingly prominent.
At present, the gold and silver investment market is still in the primary stage of commodity trading, and more market influence comes from the macro-control of national policies and the price fluctuation of gold investment products as a transaction itself. In the case of fierce competition in the gold investment market, the influence of gold merchants in the market will gradually increase, and the brand effect of enterprises will also play a greater investment driving force in the process of product diversification. The future gold and silver investment market is bound to form a multi-brand competition pattern from enterprises to products.
2. Analysis of gold investment value and price trend
2. 1 gold investment value
At present, different views on gold reflect the differences between modern economics and classical economics, well-trained economics and common sense economics.
Classical economics is based on the "gold standard". At this point, Adam Smith, Karl Marx and J.P. Morgan are completely consistent. However, from 1933 to 1970, the gold-restricted paper money system was completely disintegrated and expelled, followed by the "moral sentiment" of economics. At that time, Adam Smith was able to lift The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments as two ends of the barbell because he had the "gold standard" as the central axis. In other words, anyone who wants to get wealth must exchange it with equal use value. Even if the British Empire coveted China's silver, it needed opium in exchange.
Greenspan once wrote: "Without the gold standard, there is no way to protect (people's) savings from being swallowed up by inflation". Since Ge Lao shut up, he has soared to become the most successful trader in the current financial system-18 successfully ruled the Federal Reserve, creating an unprecedented super financial bubble.
Excessive issuance of paper money will inevitably lead to inflation, and Chicago economics initiated by Keynes is subject to and serves this cause. He created a theoretical maze with "inflation is inevitable". In the end, the human economic transaction "freedom, justice, democracy and human rights" represented by "gold standard" became a symbol of ignorance and backwardness. Now, the Fed can only accumulate wealth by printing money and issuing government bonds. In this regard, the non-mainstream Austrian economics believes that the whole world is "framed" by the laissez-faire paper money system, and the release of a large amount of money leads to "artificial growth", and then more money needs to be released to continue to stimulate growth. This accelerated cycle bubble characterized by maintaining GDP growth rate will burst sooner or later, and the final result is Voltaire's saying that "all paper money will eventually return to their original value-zero". Under this inference, gold will be used.
Personally, we sincerely hope that our investors, more broadly the people, have a reasonable amount of gold as an irreplaceable balance in the asset structure, and we also hope that our gold will never be used, because if we have to pay for gold for economic activities, the world will be in an unimaginable environment.
2.2 gold price trend analysis
2.2. 1 historical review
In the years after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, it seems that gold suddenly lost its function of value measurement and was used as a tool for excessive speculation. Its dollar-denominated price fluctuated so much that it reached 1980, which was about 20 times the original official price of gold, creating a dazzling price of $852 per ounce. Since 1980, the price of gold has been in the downward channel, which has lasted for more than 20 years. 1August 1999, the price of gold reached the lowest price of 25 1 USD/oz.
In the next 10 year, due to the recession of the American economy, the dollar continued to depreciate in order to ensure the development of the American economy, which made human beings begin to consider the credit problem of "credit currency" again. At the present stage of increasing international friction and increasing distrust of various economies, the credit currency that makes human beings suspicious should subconsciously play an important role in the belief and culture that gold has been left to human beings as history. Gold is the value measure of "credit and morality" that can reach the world at present.
2.2.2 Influencing factors of gold price
In the past two years, the market price of gold was mainly affected by three factors.
First, the leading force of gold investment continues to strengthen, and countries, institutions and individuals have increased their gold reserves. Russian, Indian, China and other countries with US dollar and euro as their main national reserves are more inclined to buy gold as their national reserves when the US dollar and other major currencies depreciate. The official gold purchase in 20 10 was 77 tons, which was the first net purchase in 20 years. In 20 1 10, this figure reached 439.7 tons, more than five times that of the previous year. It can be seen that the role of gold in national financial security has been widely recognized by all countries in the world. Major global funds increase their holdings of gold assets by purchasing gold ETFs. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, the investment demand of India and China has increased rapidly, reaching 366.0 tons and 258.9 tons respectively. Under the guidance of this factor, the traditional relationship between supply and demand that affects the price of gold continues to weaken.
Second, the leading force of gold decline still comes from the fluctuation of funds, which is exactly the same as the reason for the sharp drop in previous years. The main decline of 20 1 1 started from September 20 1 1, mainly reflected in the rapid decline in September and 65438+February. The deep-seated reasons are related to the financing difficulties in the secondary market and the lack of liquidity of the US dollar under the influence of the European and American crises, rather than the changes in the fundamentals of gold.
Third, the outstanding feature of the gold price trend is the increase in volatility, which has reached the highest level since the rise of 1999. On the one hand, it shows that funds have been involved in gold and active operations have increased; On the other hand, it shows the rapid shuffling behavior of the gold market in the rapid development.
20 12 international gold price is relatively stable, but the overall performance is still in the historical high range. Market price fluctuation mainly continues the continuous transformation and deepening of various influencing factors since 20 1 1. From the current market performance observation, we can draw the following two basic conclusions: the trend of global economic growth slowdown will not stop; Future economic uncertainty still exists.
In the future, the American economy needs to reduce the proportion of financial and service industries in the economy and strengthen manufacturing, that is, "de-financialization". Europe needs to reduce the fiscal deficit for a long time, reform the outdated labor system, reduce welfare and increase competitiveness, that is, "no welfare." China is facing the economic transformation under the new situation, and gradually gets rid of its dependence on the real estate industry, that is, "going to single assets". At the same time, one of the goals of the reform is to rebalance the global economy, that is, developed countries need to increase the proportion of exports and investment, while emerging market countries need to expand domestic demand and maintain sustainable economic development.
It can be predicted that the process of this reform will be quite long and painful. The transformation of the model, or the upgrading of the system, can never be achieved overnight. In the next few years, the economies of developed countries and emerging market countries will slow down. Because of the uncertainty of the economic outlook, the volatility of the global capital market will also increase significantly, and it is difficult for the stock market to have a trend bull market. It is more likely that the commodity market will maintain wide fluctuations, and all kinds of assets will be revalued. Therefore, the risk of investment will rise, and the requirements for the allocation of safe-haven assets will increase. Judging from the performance of asset price returns in recent ten years, gold ranks first with an average annual return of over 18%.
We have reason to believe that the market price high of $65,438+$0.920 per ounce is a phased high, and the gold market price still has the opportunity and ability to continue to set a new price record in the future. Because gold is the only asset that is not realized by national reputation and commitment, it has irreplaceable reputation. Although the current credit currency will have interest when stored and is convenient for payment and settlement, it is a product derived from social and economic development on the basis of gold and has no relative durability.
Generally speaking, investing in gold is neither commodity investment nor financial speculation, but the transfer of one monetary asset to another. No matter how many currencies there are in the future, the gold currency representing value may never be abandoned.