Many analysts believe that the bull market is surging all the way, and there are substantial benefits, including abundant liquidity, China's sustained economic prosperity, the continuous appreciation of the RMB, which makes RMB-denominated assets optimistic, and the risk of full circulation has been completely released, and the 28 Olympic Games and other opportunities allow people to see substantial benefits. At present, the P/E ratio of China's stock has reached the level of the United States, about 25-3 times. Some people think that China's companies are in a period of rapid rise, while the American economy is slowing down or even facing recession. Therefore, these people think that although China's market is more risky than the United States, there are more opportunities for profit than the United States, so they are optimistic about China's stock market.
in addition to the above-mentioned factors that have substantially pushed up the stock market, some irrational factors have contributed to it, one of which is the follow-up of retail investors. There are many people chasing up, so now institutional investors are led by retail investors.
I think there are several events worthy of attention now:
1) When I first mentioned the launch of stock index futures. The significance of stock index futures is to stabilize the stock market and prevent the stock market bubble. Because when the stock market keeps rising and people see a bubble, more and more people are bound to be bearish on the stock market. At this time, they can use the stock index futures to make a big profit when they really fall. When people sell futures, they will naturally short their stocks. When many people do this, the stock market will fall. Therefore, many institutions are waiting for the introduction of stock index futures to make a big profit, so they have to push the stock index very high in advance, preferably so high that there is no room for growth. Then they sell futures index in large quantities and short their stocks to make a big profit.
2) The second thing worth paying attention to is the central bank's interest rate hike. A small increase in interest rates by the central bank itself may not draw much money from the stock market, but it will give investors a signal that China's economy is developing too fast and the country is ready to take it in. This signal will scare off a large number of speculators. China's GDP growth in the first quarter of this year exceeded 11%, which greatly increased the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates.
Therefore, I personally advise those who have made a fortune in the stock to accept it as soon as possible and withdraw before the introduction of the futures index and the interest rate increase. Wait until these two risks are basically released before going in. China's stock market is generally positive. Now the state encourages companies to go public, which has increased investors' choices (by the way, this policy will promote the stock index to rise, so don't think that short selling stock index futures at a high level will definitely make a steady profit and rush into the market), so a lot of funds will definitely flow to new shares, which will increase the risk of existing stocks. For this reason, I also suggest that you don't chase after the high at this time, which will bring great risks to yourself.