Macro-economic situation
Macroeconomic situation is the key factor to judge the changing trend of coking coal market.
1. When the economy enters the upward cycle, the demand for products of downstream steel and coking enterprises is strong, the production capacity of enterprises begins to expand, and the demand for upstream raw materials continues to increase, leading to an increase in coking coal prices.
2. When the economy enters the down cycle, the demand for real estate, automobiles and other terminals weakens, the inventory of steel and coking enterprises increases, enterprises begin to reduce production scale and control production costs, and the situation that the supply of upstream raw materials exceeds demand will lead to price decline.
(2) Industrial policy
The change of industrial policy will directly affect the production cost of coal production enterprises.
Since 2007, there are three national policies related to coal cost *** 10. The centralized introduction of these policies has greatly increased the cost of enterprises, and the cost per ton of coking coal has increased 150 yuan -200 yuan. The rising of coking coal resources and policy cost will inevitably bring great pressure to the sustainable development of coking coal enterprises. On the one hand, it needs to be digested by coal enterprises, on the other hand, it will inevitably be passed on to downstream enterprises, thus affecting the price of coking coal.
From 2005 to 2007, Shanxi Province, as a pilot province of coal resource integration, carried out large-scale resource integration of local coal mines, closed and eliminated local coal mines with an integration capacity of less than 90,000 tons, and further closed small coal mines with an integration capacity of less than 300,000 tons in 2008. In 2009, after the Tunlan mine disaster, the integration of coal resources was further promoted, and a large number of small coal mines were closed, resulting in a large shortage of coking coal in China. In the short run, shutting down and transferring will reduce the output of coking coal and aggravate the shortage of supply, but in the long run, it is still conducive to the intensive and sustainable development of the industry, which is more conducive to the steady improvement of the output and quality of coking coal.