It's troublesome for you to let each variety talk about it. I'm still in the big category. Go ahead. Futures varieties can be divided into several categories: agricultural products (bean one, bean two, soybean meal, hard wheat, strong wheat, cotton and so on. ) and heavy industrial products (copper, zinc, aluminum); Light industrial products (PTA, rubber, LLDPE) and gold and fuel.
1, the most important influencing factor among all varieties * * *: supply and demand.
In the economic society, the relationship between supply and demand of products determines the direction of product price changes, and the demand exceeds the supply, and the rise is normal; Supply exceeds demand, falling.
2. Economic fundamentals affect all varieties. No variety can escape the influence of this factor under the economic crisis, but there is only one variety that is the most resistant to falling and the first to rebound.
3. Unique influence of agricultural products: weather conditions, national minimum purchase price, national guidance purchase price, national subsidy policy, etc.
Since ancient times, the influence of climate has existed, which has a great influence on the output of agricultural products. The recent drought and the poor harvest of many wheat crops directly led to the rise of wheat futures. National minimum purchase price, food crops are protected by the minimum purchase price, such as early indica rice 1800 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, and regional prices are different.
It also has a certain impact on the policies, subsidies and tax exemption of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers".
Agricultural products will also be affected by state purchasing and storage. For example, there was a shortage of international rice last year, and the state purchased and stored various food crops.
4. Heavy industry products are most affected by the economic situation. Because China's mineral resources are not enough to meet the national demand, such as copper, zinc and aluminum, it needs to be imported from abroad, so the international supply and demand situation, international foreign exchange situation and freight rate will all affect him. Moreover, China lacks pricing power, and the international pricing power is basically in the hands of the London Stock Exchange.
In addition, the pricing power of raw materials is still in the hands of several major mining giants, so negotiations with them also have an impact.
5, the influence of national policies, which includes many contents, such as business tax rate, export tax rebate policy, national purchasing and storage policy, etc. For example, the purchasing and storage of Asian countries has led to an increase in international prices and a corresponding increase in domestic prices.
6. Heavy industry futures products are also affected by energy supply, because smelting consumes a lot of energy, such as steelmaking consumes a lot of coal and aluminum smelting consumes a lot of electricity, and the influence of coal price and electricity price also exists.
7. The varieties of light industry futures are affected by the prices of oil and other raw materials. The upstream of PTA and LLDPE are oil, and the price change of oil dramatically affects the trend. At the same time, it is also influenced by other raw materials. For example, the upcoming PVC is mainly produced by calcium carbide method in China. The upstream raw material is coal, and the energy consumption of calcium carbide manufacturing is high, and the consumption of 1 ton is nearly 3000 kWh.
Gold is a hedging tool. In the case of stock market or economic crisis, gold usually rises sharply.
Not to mention fuel, international oil prices directly affect, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries affects international oil prices.
Ps: reference website: