Review of this week's market: various factors are intertwined with the current oil market. Due to the fire in Canada and the attack in Nigeria, the oil supply was interrupted to some extent, and the short-term decrease in the oil market pushed Brent oil prices back above $50. However, some analysts pointed out that the global oil demand is increasing, but the growth rate is not as good as expected, which cannot alleviate the oversupply of crude oil formed in recent two years. On Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries held a semi-annual meeting in Vienna to discuss the latest production restriction resolution. However, the market generally believes that it is still difficult to reach a production restriction agreement at this meeting, and oil-producing countries will still go their own way. The international oil price, which recently rose to $50, is likely to encounter resistance.

News analysis-non-agricultural trend has gone, and the later trend forecast of crude oil asphalt

The worst non-farm payrolls report released by the United States in six years not only detonated the global market, but also surprised major investment banks. The Fed's interest rate hike node has once again become a hot topic. This time, weak non-agriculture destroyed the reason for raising interest rates in June.

Li Ninghua believes that non-agriculture can always directly reflect the quality of the US economy, and it is also one of the weathervanes for the Fed to raise interest rates. The non-agricultural data released this time is far less than expected. US federal funds rate futures show that traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates in June. The probability is only 4%, which was19% before the non-agricultural announcement; The US dollar index dropped rapidly by nearly 1%, which led to a sharp drop in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in July from 59% before non-farming to 36%.

However, it cannot be ignored that the interest rate hike in July is still on the agenda, and the follow-up is still concerned. It is predicted that the next rate hike will be around 2065438+2007 1. Whether to raise interest rates, as long as the news comes out, will definitely promote the market.

In terms of our commodity market, crude oil asphalt has laid a short trend at the beginning of this week. Ninghua's previous article has explained it and will not repeat it too much, so I also said in my previous article that there must be an unexpected situation that will cause the oil price to rebound. At the moment when the non-agricultural data was released on Friday night, Beijing time, 12906 poured in. However, the bill worth $600 million in the later period instantly boosted the US oil price by 50 cents, which directly suppressed the crude oil asphalt, which is also the reason why the crude oil asphalt will rise first and then fall.

Technical analysis and operation suggestion of asphalt (crude oil) next week

This week's data super week, EIA, OPEC meeting, non-agricultural market, so-called thrilling. Technically, the spot crude oil asphalt charges a negative column from the weekly line, the moving average system goes up, the K line is below the upper rail of Brin, and the MACD indicator goes up; From the daily line, the 5-day 10 moving average is flat, the MACD fast and slow lines in the attached figure are downward, and the KDJ indicator is downward divergent; From the 4-hour line, the moving average system runs as a whole, with the K line below the middle rail of Brin, the MACD bonding and the KDJ indicator descending; On the whole, Li ninghua suggested doing more operations next week, focusing on the support level of 2330 and the pressure level of 2400. I will give a real-time strategy next week, and Baidu Li Ninghua will get the details for free.

Suggestions for asphalt (crude oil) operation next Monday:

Strategy 1: First look at more than 2,330 single entry, with a loss of 30 points and a target of 2370-2380;

Strategy 2: 2400 goes into the air, with a loss of 30 points and a target of 2350-2340;

Regarding the future trend of crude oil, Ning Hua believes that crude oil will fall back due to the strength of the US dollar and start to rise around US$ 46. I tried to stand firm at the $50 mark for many times, and after completely standing firm at $50, it oscillated in the range of 5 1-54. As far as the current news is concerned, empty orders are still contrarian orders. Long-term friends, you can consider entering the market directly with more than one order near $47.

Let's talk about Li Ninghua's asphalt empty bill solution scheme:

More than one quilt cover: More than one quilt cover bounces around 2400 above 2380-88, and an empty quilt can enter the market. When it falls back to around 2350, all empty orders are out, and it is radical around 2320.

Lock the warehouse: the lighter sets leave more space near 2350 and hold more orders. Long-term lock orders wait for 2420 pressure.

Ning Hua concluded: No matter what the market is, whether it is a volatile market or a unilateral market, there are always people who set orders. Now that you have placed an order, don't panic first. Did you place an order in the first place? In fact, the setting order is not that complicated. If you order, don't die, don't follow the trend. Set a stop loss! Otherwise it will be fatal! Let yourself set a list and don't leave yourself a way back! If you lose the next operation, you will learn your lesson and the opportunity is always there. If you lose a single order, you avoid deep lock-up. This is what rational people do.

For Ning Hua, from the beginning of this business, Ning Hua advocated a steady operation method, thinking that small profits are better than big losses, and every order should remind investors to strictly bring a stop loss.

Our principle of making orders is never to set orders. Why? Because the order is very passive, on the one hand, there is psychological pressure to dare not execute the next order; On the other hand, the occupation of positions will affect further cost recovery operations.

However, stop loss is different. Ninghua does not have many orders every day. When the market is light, you will make orders or not, and you will only make 3-4 orders when you are active. Therefore, with a stop loss, even if this order is lost, I will help the customer earn back the next order and maintain the overall profit. No loss is double profit!