Keywords: extremely loose economic stimulus
Looking back on 2009, after a serious financial crisis swept the world, all major economies suffered heavy losses, and countries introduced extremely loose monetary policies to help the economy get out of the quagmire as soon as possible. Countries have intermittently launched macro-monetary and fiscal policies and huge economic stimulus plans, and achieved remarkable results. Emerging economies have taken the lead in getting out of recession and leading the global economic recovery. The dawn of American economic recovery is in sight. The euro zone, which was hit hardest by the crisis, has bottomed out, and Japan, which is deeply depressed, has also bottomed out.
At the end of 2008, China announced a 4 trillion economic stimulus plan to boost domestic demand before 20 10; At the same time, the major commercial banks launched an unprecedented huge lending operation. US President Barack Obama signed a $787 billion economic stimulus plan in February 2009; Interest rates have been continuously lowered to the range of 0-0.25%, and on March 8, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced that it would purchase up to $300 billion of long-term treasury bonds and $0.25 trillion of mortgage securities.
Event 2 G20 becomes a new platform for international economic cooperation.
Keywords: G20 financial summit, new economic order
On September 25th, 2009, the leaders of G20 issued a joint statement in Pittsburgh, USA, announcing that G20 will replace G8 as the primary platform for international economic cooperation and coordination. In response to the global financial crisis, G20 leaders held financial summits in June 2008 (5438+065438+ 10), April 2009 and September 2009 respectively, and achieved fruitful results: the Washington Summit laid the foundation for a coordinated global response to the financial crisis; The London Summit became an important turning point in the development of the financial crisis. Pittsburgh Summit marks the birth of a new global economic order after the crisis, and emerging economies represented by China will play a greater role in global economic governance in the future.
Every major crisis means a change in the global economic order. The financial crisis broke out in Asia from 65438 to 0997, and the developed economies were also affected. Therefore, in 1999, the G-20 organization was established at the initiative of the Group of Seven, with the purpose of allowing relevant countries to hold informal dialogues on international economic and monetary policies, preventing the recurrence of similar crises and enhancing the stability of the international financial and monetary system.
Event 3: Global trade protectionism spread, and China became the biggest victim.
Keywords: trade protection, two opposites, two guarantees
With the recovery of the global economy, trade protectionism has also begun to rise. According to the latest statistics of WTO, from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, there were 234 new anti-dumping investigations and 23 countervailing investigations around the world. The global trade protection against China has launched a fierce offensive, and China has become the biggest victim of trade protectionism. Since the beginning of this year, the number and amount of trade friction cases in China have reached record highs. Up to June 1 1, * * 19 countries and regions initiated 103 trade remedy investigations against China. The total amount involved is about $654.38+0.2 billion.
It is estimated that there will be 230 -250 new anti-dumping investigations in the world in 2009, with a year-on-year increase of11%-20%; The number of newly initiated countervailing investigations will reach 4 1 piece, with a year-on-year increase of 193%.
Event 4 Australia took the lead in raising interest rates, and whether countries "quit" became the focus.
Keywords: delisting economic recovery and interest rate increase
The collapse of Citigroup in the last century, the bankruptcy of CIT, the huge losses faced by Su Huang and Credit Suisse in history, and the frequent emergencies in the banking industry have made countries carry out drastic financial reforms while struggling to save financial institutions in trouble. After the economic and financial situation eased, Australia fired the first shot of "withdrawal" on 10/October 6, becoming the first G20 country to withdraw from economic stimulus measures after the financial crisis. On the one hand, market investors have increased their confidence in the global economic recovery. On the other hand, they are also worried about inflation and the withdrawal of the economic stimulus plan.
Market investors believe that this move will open the curtain for countries to raise interest rates one after another. Analysts said that China will raise interest rates in the middle of next year, and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time.
Event five dollars: 2009 was bleak.
Keywords: weak dollar fell
In 2009, the exchange rate of the US dollar reached an obvious peak.
On March 5th, the US dollar index of the overall change in the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major western currencies reached the highest point of 89.5 this year. Then the index turned down and fell all the way. Up to now, the lowest point of the US dollar index in the year appears at165438+1October 25th, which is about 74.2 points.
The depreciation of the dollar has increased the competitiveness of American exports, and the increase of American exports is more conducive to the recovery of the American economy. Therefore, for the United States, Obama administration officials are likely to continue chanting the mantra of "strong dollar" while watching the dollar fall. The continuous decline of the US dollar and the start of the printing press in the United States have directly led to excess global liquidity, and the depreciation of the US dollar has caused global market turmoil, especially for export-oriented economies. Near the end of the year, the dollar began a wave of rebound. However, the industry believes that the year-end rise of the US dollar is a technical adjustment of the market. 20 10 USD will continue to decline.
Event 6 Oil: Bear at the beginning of the year, mad cow at the end of the year.
Keywords: shock, high resuscitation
In July 2008, the international crude oil futures price soared to the sky-high price of 147.27 USD. With the outbreak of the crisis, oil prices fell rapidly, reaching a low of $33.55 in February this year, with a drop of 77% in just over seven months. The international crude oil market is sad. Low oil prices seem to make the world economy "breathe a sigh of relief", but since mid-February, oil prices have turned into a volatile upward track. In the second quarter, the oil price rose by more than 40%, the biggest single-quarter increase since the third quarter 1990. After repeated shocks, the international oil price once rushed to $80 on June 2 1, 1, but it has recently fallen back. Raymond Kaben, a senior trader of the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures options, told Xinhua that "we have seen changes that usually take two years to complete within six months".
Looking at the fluctuation of oil prices throughout the year, "recovery" is a main line. Some analysts said: investors believe that the worst of the financial crisis has passed, which means that with the increasingly obvious signs of economic recovery, oil demand will eventually rise. A few days ago, although the international crude oil price fell slightly, it still closed at this year's high.
Event 7 Gold: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in the Post-crisis Era
Keywords: diving, strong regression
2009 can be said to be the year of global gold outbreak.
This year, the global gold price broke through the "ceiling" of $0/1,000 per ounce three times. During this period, the market was ups and downs, thrilling, and finally reached a new high. On the surface, it is influenced by the economic crisis and people's worries about stagflation. From a fundamental point of view, the trend of global gold prices is closely related to the depreciation of the US dollar.
In 2009, the global gold price trend basically revolved around "rushing to thousands". In a year, after three thrilling rounds, the price of gold finally reached a high of $0/1,000 per ounce, and all the way up to an astonishing high of $0/1,200 per ounce, setting a new record for the gold bull market since 2002. Gold, praised as the "last line of defense" by economist Keynes, is making global investors rediscover its financial attributes and return to the investment market strongly.
Event 8 Dubai: Sovereign debt crisis strikes.
Keywords: Dubai sovereign debt downgrade
When it comes to Dubai, the mind of the world shows amazing human miracles and luxurious life. However, behind the luxury, there is a debt bubble totaling $80 billion. With the impact of the financial tsunami on the global economy, Dubai's tourism and real estate industries suffered heavy losses, income dropped sharply, the bubble burst, and previous debts could no longer be covered. Dubai had to stand up and ask its creditors to postpone the debt collection165438+June 25th, which triggered a debt storm in Dubai and led to violent turmoil in the global financial market.
In just a few weeks, Dubai's sovereign debt crisis began, and then the sovereign debts of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and other European countries were also implicated. Moody's, another rating company, also pointed out that even "big guys" like the United States, Britain, France and Germany will face the same threat if they cannot live an honest and clean life. With the continuous exposure of sovereign debt risks, many international banks and rating agencies have warned that the sovereign debt crisis may be the number one risk facing the world next year.
Event 9: During the year 140 banks in the United States closed down, hitting a 20-year high.
Keywords: Bankrupt Bank Crisis
10 On June 30, the US financial regulatory authorities announced the closure of nine banks, including National Bank of California, which was the largest number of banks closed in a single day since the outbreak of the financial crisis. 165438+1October 2, CIT, the largest commercial lending institution in the United States, filed for bankruptcy, becoming the fifth largest bankrupt enterprise in American history. As of February 23rd, 65438, the number of failed banks in the United States announced by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has reached 140, a 20-year high. As the price of commercial real estate in the United States drops by 35% to 40%, the default rate of commercial real estate credit and commercial loans continues to rise, and the prospects of some smaller banks are still worrying.
The American banking crisis has always been a hot issue of global concern. If the tragic scene of American big banks in 2008 is still shocking, the collapse of small and medium-sized banks in 2009 has cast a shadow over the financial system that has just begun to heal. More bank failures show that the crisis effect is still going on, and the balance sheet problems caused by the last round of credit expansion need to be further digested. Although it is unlikely to cause systemic risks, it will undoubtedly drag down the recovery of the real economy.
Event 10 Copenhagen climate summit ended without results.
Keywords:: Copenhagen Climate Summit carbon emissions
19 February 19, the 5th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 5th Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen, Denmark, came to an end. During the 13-day meeting, developed and developing countries had a heated debate on key issues such as emission reduction principles and financial support. Leaders from 1 10 countries attended the meeting. At the end of the meeting, the Copenhagen Accord was adopted, which reaffirmed the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" in tackling climate change, and made arrangements for developed countries to implement mandatory emission reduction and developing countries to take autonomous mitigation actions. The differences between developed and developing countries are still great, and no agreement has been reached on setting legally binding emission reduction targets. The Copenhagen agreement is not legally binding. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that efforts will be made to promote the agreement to become a legal document in 20 10, and it will be implemented in 20 13. The failure of the Copenhagen Climate Summit has brought about various negative effects, such as the sharp drop in the price of carbon emission rights in the European Carbon Emissions Exchange, and the participating countries have held each other accountable for the failure of the agreement.