Danger is organic. If you can have the thinking of improvisation and the ability to grasp the current situation in the changing times, you will not only be invincible, but also have the opportunity to stand out. The variety of goods handled by importers of textile raw materials is not complicated. In recent years, it can be found that the profit level is low, and sometimes even losses occur. So can this business continue? Do they have a chance? Is this what the author has been thinking about? What are the advantages? problem
The increasingly fierce trade war has made competition no longer just the competition of goods and channels. Similarly, modern international trade is no longer a simple product transaction plus logistics. In addition to being familiar with international trade rules and product prices, you need to be good at interpreting various macroeconomic policies and using various financial tools to make yourself more knowledgeable.
We can get possible opportunities in the future from the analysis of the economic situation. At the same time, through appropriate financial instruments, more trade comparative benefits will be generated.
I. RMB exchange rate issue
The issue of RMB exchange rate is still one of the focal issues in Chinese and American politics. Now the US government blames other countries, including China, for its economic problems. They want to import less goods from China and export more goods to China. Through the appreciation of RMB to influence the changes of commodity prices, American goods can be exported more. Recently, they even suggested that the United States would impose a punitive tariff of 27.5% on China's goods if the RMB did not act. This means that the potential exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will appreciate by 27.5%. Once the appreciation expectation exceeds 20%, the market will have the expectation of arbitrage.
In addition, the China government is willing to reduce the trade surplus, which is undoubtedly a very important news for importers. If the government uses imports to balance the trade surplus, it can effectively offset part of the trade friction caused by the exchange rate, and imports will be encouraged. This is the time for importers to purchase goods. In the future, the appreciation of RMB will increase the purchasing power of currency and make importers gain more comparative benefits, so the appreciation will be beneficial to imports.
There are many textile raw materials that can be imported, such as cotton and PTA. Seizing this opportunity to import primary products (textile raw materials) will make people have more energy to engage in China's modern manufacturing industry, which is conducive to upgrading the industrial structure. In the specific trade practice, importers should strive for the payment terms of forward payment, so that they may enjoy the extra profits brought by the trend of currency appreciation.
Second, the issue of reserve ratio.
On 2011April 2 1 day, the People's Bank of China raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points again. So far, the deposit reserve ratio of large banks in China has reached a historical high of 20.5%. This is the 10 time since 20 10, and it is also the fourth time this year. The intensive adjustment frequency shows the government's determination to tighten.
2011strong credit growth indirectly reflects that economic growth is still strong; Inflation pressure is still relatively high, and it is necessary to continue to do a good job in monetary liquidity management. It is predicted that the deposit reserve ratio will be raised to 2 1.5% ~ 22% in 2065, 438+0.65 and 438+0 years, and some experts predict that it will be raised to about 23%.
When the central bank raises the statutory reserve ratio, the ability of commercial banks to provide loans and create credit will decline. Because the reserve ratio increases, the money multiplier decreases, which reduces the ability of the entire commercial banking system to create credit and expand the scale of credit. As a result, the social money supply is tight, the money supply is reduced, interest rates are rising, and investment and social expenditure are correspondingly reduced. or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium Generally speaking, raising the deposit reserve ratio will force interest rates to rise, which is a signal of tightening monetary policy. The increase of deposit reserve ratio is aimed at the problem of excess liquidity in the current market, and the reserve ratio will continue to increase in the future. In the combination of macro-control, interest rate and exchange rate should be used together.
For importers, the issue of reserve is an interest rate issue. As interest rates rise, importers need to pay attention to the cost of capital utilization. A considerable part of textile raw materials are commodities with high unit amount and large quantity, but the profitability of unit amount is weak. In the cost budget, the interest rate factor must be considered. The rise in interest rates has brought inflation expectations. In the short term, it is better to hold money than to hold goods to preserve value. Domestic inflation and foreign currency appreciation are good business opportunities for importers. In addition, if we can make good use of capital advantages and leverage, we can win in commodity trade. What is also mentioned here is the role of futures trading market in trade practice, which can reduce import risk through price hedging in futures market.
Because the price problem related to people's livelihood has reached the point where it must be solved, in order to stabilize prices, the government may continue to tighten control measures through monetary policy for some time. For importers, in the long run, they may face the reduction of product purchases caused by economic contraction, which needs attention. At present, the government should encourage economic development while pre-controlling risks, so there are two hedging forces here. Therefore, it is necessary to track and analyze which power will prevail and grasp the rhythm of the stage. Importers are sensitive to the problem of reserves, have a good grasp and insight into the government's control measures, and master the rhythm, so as to judge the market and make correct decisions.
Third, the issue of oil prices.
At present, the tension in some oil-producing countries has triggered people's expectations of oil prices. The economic turmoil has aroused people's expectation of rising oil, and the prices of petrochemical products linked to it will also be affected, which will support the prices of some bulk textile raw materials in the short term.
When special events happen, there are often many business opportunities. For example, during the period of * * in 2003, when people were full of doubts about the market and were at a loss, a Zhejiang enterprise boldly decided to continue to buy the means of production because it believed that the crisis would soon pass. The pessimism in the market led to a sharp drop in the price of raw materials, but instead he entered the market and brought high profits to enterprises.
At present, oil prices are soaring because people's expectations are at work, and there are some signs of excessive market regulation. But it must be clear that the era of low oil prices is gone forever, and we must be prepared for long-term high oil prices.
Fourthly, the impact of the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis on the import of textile raw materials.
The March earthquake and tsunami in Japan 1 1 caused serious losses to Japan's economy, because Japan is the third largest economy in the world and occupies a decisive position in the world economy. Some factories in Japan's important pillar industries, such as automobiles, chemicals and electronics, were destroyed by the tsunami and earthquake and forced to stop production. More seriously, the nuclear power crisis has caused a serious shortage of electricity in Japan, which has dragged down the post-disaster production recovery and economic reconstruction of Japanese enterprises.
After the earthquake and tsunami, the prices of many products in the international market rose, especially in the supply chain of electronic components, auto parts and other industries, and the prices of chemical products also rose accordingly. China is an important importer of Japanese chemical products. At present, it is necessary to transfer some import quantities to other countries. At the same time, it should be noted that the impact of the earthquake in Japan and the post-earthquake reconstruction in Japan have played a certain supporting role in the price of chemical products.
Verb (short for verb)? Twelfth Five-Year Plan? Textile industry policy in planning
? Twelfth Five-Year Plan? It is clearly stated in the plan that the textile industry should realize the new industrialization road in five aspects: structural optimization, advanced technology, cleanliness and safety, increased added value and strong employability. China's economy takes adjusting industrial structure and expanding domestic demand as its current task. The textile industry should realize the transformation from a textile power to a textile power, and constantly adapt to the people's new expectations for a better life. Simply put, the next 10 year will be 10 year for the development of consumer goods market. How to improve people's clothing level will give birth to textile market.
From the perspective of traders, we must see such business opportunities. Raw material suppliers can introduce new fiber raw materials and the latest textile achievements, and strive to improve the texture and quality of fabrics from new materials, such as importing some special yarns. You can also make a fuss about products in market segments and open up new varieties of raw materials. Although these varieties can't win in trading volume, they may get high profits.
At present, China's sustained and rapid economic development has also brought about various cost increases, especially the cost of human resources and energy consumption. According to American economic forecast, China's demographic dividend will end in 20 12. Relying solely on labor-intensive enterprises will definitely hinder economic development. Energy shortage is a worldwide problem. China textile industry must improve its core competitiveness and move from the low end of the industrial chain to the middle and high end. China's textile industry put forward the idea of textile power? Four strategic goals? : first, a textile technology power; Second, the textile brand power; Third, a powerful country with sustainable textile development; Fourth, a powerful country with textile talents. As a professional importer of raw materials, you can follow the plan, especially in high-tech textiles and brand textiles, and pay attention to new and high-tech textile raw materials.
To sum up, the present situation is an opportunity for importers. Engaged in the import and export trade of textile raw materials, just like providing grain for textile enterprises, is an essential part of the concept of expanding domestic demand in the next 10 year. In the purchase decision, if we can persist in confidence and make good use of financial instruments to prevent risks, we can still achieve fruitful results in the turbulent market.