As for how this market will go after the introduction of stock index futures, I don't think it will change the previous model, that is, the bull market is still crazy and the bear market is still depressed. Of course, there are shock city and cowhide city.
Let's talk about the real situation first: the stock market is stuck at around 3,000 points, mainly because the main institutions are switching positions, that is, withdrawing from overvalued stocks and entering undervalued stocks, because after all, they rose for half a year last year and those institutions also made a lot of money. So are they allocating the constituent stocks of the CSI 300? I find it hard to say. If it is a big move, the index will definitely go up. So even if they are configuring, they go in bit by bit every day. In fact, this question is irrelevant. The key is how to operate as an individual investor now. I think there are two ways: 1 find stocks with good performance and then small gains, whether they are large-cap stocks or small-cap stocks. 2 wait. Wait until the trend is clear. For example, a stock has a great selling pressure near 8 yuan (where the early trading volume is relatively large). When a wave rises and effectively breaks through 8 yuan, kill again. The former is similar to value investment, while the latter is band operation.
Let's talk about 1 Lou's problem of "short selling and suppression". I think this thing is like this: first of all, it will only happen if there is room for decline. At present, the price-earnings ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange is around 26 times. Assuming that the decline is about 18 times and the space is about 900 points (3000 * 18/26), there is indeed room for decline. Secondly, we must have conditions to be healthy. The current situation is that most retail investors are short positions. Therefore, no one will "follow the trend" when it falls, which means that there will be little selling pressure and few people will take over, because they don't expect the stock price to rise and the trend is unknown. In both ways, even if large institutions sell, the stock price will not fall. Then even if the previous situation is not established, that is, the stock price has sunk. So what will happen? Those fund managers are not fools either: in the past, when the fund plunged on 6 124, the fund kept lightening its positions, because they only earned when they rose, and lost when they fell. In order to reduce losses, they had to lighten their positions in consideration of the fund's income, thus accelerating the plunge. But now the situation is different, because, for example, it drops by 2500 points, which is their cost price, and he will not lighten up his position. He knows that it may fall by 300-400 points, so they will take "hedging", that is, they will not sell the spot and sell futures. This will reduce the selling pressure in the spot market. In this case, those large institutions that sell spot and short futures at high positions will face a risk: the stock index may fall by less than 2 100 points, that is, you can't get the bloody chips of other institutions at low positions! This is a loss for them. Because, for example, the stock index finally fell to 2300 points, and he only got a small amount of chips from 2300 to 2500 points, and the cost was 2400, so if he wants to make a high price in the future, his cost may be higher, but don't forget that the average cost he throws is also around 2600-2700, so the cost of the person who picks her up, whether it is an institution or a retail investor, is 2600-2700. And the cost of large institutions is even higher than the fund cost listed above!
Everybody say, will it go up? In my opinion, if you go up, the situation this year will force you not to go very high. The main reason is: the size of the non-lifting peak, holding a large number of stocks are waiting to sell at a good price, so the pressure of invisible selling is heavy. Moreover, there is definitely something wrong with the liquidity this year, which is definitely not better than last year and 2007. Of course, looking back, what I want to say is: don't underestimate the power of retail investors and the market. A bull market may happen at any time!
Finally, talk about the relationship between futures and spot:
Futures price and spot price (index) are interactive, and the difference between them (called basis) is maintained in a small space. If the difference between the two becomes large or small, there will be arbitrage space, and this arbitrage force will restore the basis to an equilibrium position. Therefore, looking at futures prices is similar to looking at the changes in spot prices. As for what you said about inferring the trend of the stock market by looking at the futures market, this is not something that ordinary individual investors can do, but what traders who hedge arbitrage must do. Generally speaking, ordinary individual investors do stocks as long as they care about the spot!