The market has responded well to this, but most people think that commodities will become a refuge for the flood of dollars, while real estate has picked up.
The Fed has reservations.
Goldman Sachs commented on QE3: At the press conference, Bernanke did not give specific criteria for judging the speed and degree of improvement in the labor market, which is a necessary criterion for the Committee to choose to stop or accelerate the purchase of assets. We think the Fed will stop buying assets in a short time, unless it sees a sharp drop in the unemployment rate, which is faster than we expected. Stagnant or rising unemployment rate may accelerate the pace of purchasing assets, and more radical forward-looking guidance of monetary policy may also appear. Bernanke hinted that if the Fed's actions today prove to be insufficient, it may increase additional communication channels, which may include the nominal GDP target.
QE3 gave birth to the commodity bubble.
Ruger Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro strategy at Morgan Stanley Investment Management: The first two rounds of QE measures in the United States gave birth to a commodity bubble, which aggravated income inequality and set a bad example for other countries in the world. The first round of QE ended on March 20 10 and lasted for 16 months. The commodity price index of the Bureau of Commodity Research (CRB) of the United States rose by 36%, the food price rose by 20%, and the oil price soared by 59%. In the second round of QE, which lasted for 8 months as of June 20 12, CRB index rose by 10%, food price rose by 15%, and oil price rose by 30%.
Generally speaking, loose money did push up stock prices, but it did not push up commodity prices. However, since the Federal Reserve began to loosen monetary policy at the end of 2007, hundreds of billions of dollars have flowed into the market of new financial products (such as exchange-traded funds), enabling investors to trade stocks and other commodities. The stock market is closely related to commodities, and the price rises and falls in step.
QE3 overheated real estate.
Chen Delin, global foreign exchange director of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said that if necessary, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority would expand measures to counter the economic boom cycle. The Federal Reserve launched the third round of quantitative easing measures (QE3), which made Hong Kong real estate face the risk of overheating.
Chen Delin pointed out that QE3 will not have a big impact on interbank interest rates. However, he said that capital flows may fluctuate again, so HKMA will introduce counter-cyclical supervision measures in due course to prevent the risk of real estate market bubble.
QE3 is good for real estate investment.
Tao Qiu, manager of Penghua American Real Estate Fund, said that the launch of QE3 will definitely have a positive impact on REITs. On the one hand, the interest rate reduction effect of QE3 is beneficial to assets with fixed income attributes; on the other hand, REITs can obtain financing at a lower cost.
QE3 makes commodity prices fall.
According to the Voice of Economics "Transaction Reality" report, Dani, assistant director of soochow securities Research Institute and coal industry researcher, visited 15 to interpret the investment opportunities of coal stocks. Dani believes that after the launch of QE3, commodity prices will fall.
The depreciation trend of the dollar has been basically curbed, and commodity prices may fall back. After the demand of the real economy declines, the cycle in which commodity prices may rise sharply will end. After the launch of QE3, the expectation of currency depreciation and price increase in the commodity market has failed, which may trigger a wave of sharp adjustments, including the adjustment of gold, copper, aluminum and other commodities. The direction of big adjustment is downward adjustment.
Replace the dollar with commodities
Fu Peng, chief macro consultant of galaxy futures: QE3 is coming soon, and commodities are expected to become a substitute for the US dollar. To some extent, QE3 further shows that the global monetary policy has further slipped to the cliff of "liquidity flooding", and the future monetary system is facing a huge impact risk. Although the actual effect is limited, its negative effect will be more obvious, and the United States will face further pressure from the fiscal cliff. However, under the background of "gradual easing", the monetary credit risk in the global monetary system has been further impacted. The increasing credit risk of money will eventually lead investors to stay away from the paper money system. "When people start to stay away from the dollar, commodities will become the best substitute", among which commodities with strong financial properties such as gold, silver, copper and crude oil will undoubtedly become the brightest stars.