The "black swan" event refers to an event that meets the following three characteristics:
1, unexpected;
2. Have a significant impact;
Although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to fabricate reasons for it afterwards, which is more or less explainable and predictable.
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Before the discovery of black swans in Australia, Europeans before17th century thought that swans were all white. But with the appearance of the first black swan, this unshakable belief collapsed. The existence of the black swan symbolizes an unpredictable and rare event, which is unexpected, but it has changed everything.
Humans always believe in experience too much, but they don't know that the appearance of a black swan is enough to subvert everything. However, whether in the expectation of the stock market, the decision-making of the government or the simple choices of ordinary people, the black swan is unpredictable. The September 1 1 incident, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the snowstorm in China all confirmed this point.
Extended information grey rhinoceros incident
Grey rhinoceros incident refers to a common risk that people take for granted, which means that the potential crisis has high probability and great influence. Grey rhinoceros is a concept that complements the black swan, and the "black swan incident" is an extremely rare accidental risk.
17 July 17, the first working day after the financial work conference, People's Daily published a commentator's article "Effective Prevention of Financial Risks" on the front page, in which it was mentioned that preventing and resolving financial risks should enhance the sense of hardship.
It is necessary to guard against both "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros", which can neither be taken lightly nor ignored. This is the first time that People's Daily mentioned the concept of "grey rhinoceros".
Baidu Encyclopedia-Black Swan Event
Baidu Encyclopedia-Grey Rhino Event