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The refined oil price "fell for two years"! Car owners will spend less when they fill up a tank of gas 14 yuan. Is there any possibility of a decline in the future?
This year, China's retail guidance price of refined oil products suffered a "two-day losing streak" for the first time. On July 12, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that since 24: 00 today, the national gasoline price has dropped by 360 yuan/ton, and the diesel price has dropped by 345 yuan/ton. Converted into price increase, the gasoline of No.92 motor vehicle, No.95 diesel engine and No.0 diesel engine decreased by 0.28 yuan, 0.3 yuan and 0.29 yuan respectively.

Therefore, the cost of edible oil for private car owners and logistics industry is reduced. Based on an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it costs the owner less than 14 yuan to fill up a tank of fuel. Loading 50 tons of large-scale logistics vehicles will reduce the gasoline cost per 100 kilometers on average 1 1.6 yuan.

According to Jinlianchuang's data, after the new round of price adjustment, the national No.0 diesel price will be 8.35-8.5 yuan/liter; In addition to the high-priced sales markets in Tibet and Hainan, China No.92 oil price will return to the "eight-yuan period", and the total demand will be 8.7-8.85 yuan/liter.

This round is the thirteenth price adjustment this year and the third downward adjustment this year. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment of gasoline and diesel now presents a layout of "ten rises and three falls".

During this settlement period, the international oil price generally showed a downward trend. Ma Lianchuang, an investment analyst at Jinlianchuang, told the whole media that in the early stage of this settlement cycle, the demand for electricity and energy market was worried about heating up, and information such as Libya's supply cut-off and Norway's estimated shutdown stimulated the rebound of international crude oil prices. However, due to the worldwide economic downturn and diffusion, European and American countries demand to increase diving efforts during the peak trading period, and the market demand is worrying, investors' profits are taking back and oil prices are under great pressure.

"Although the United States tightened its ban on Iraq at the end of the settlement cycle, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was unable to cash in the increase in production, and the market demand worried that oil prices would rise again, but the overall oil price still showed a downward trend during the cycle." The horse said:

According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the close of July 12, the domestic average reference oil price on 10 working day was 107.5 1 USD/barrel, with an elasticity coefficient of -4.73%. As of the close of China in July 12, WTI8 August futures crude oil fell by 0.67% to 104.09 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.07% to 107. 1 USD/barrel.

The next round of retail price adjustment is more likely. Wang Luqing, an oil investment analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told the All Media College that at the point of the next cycle, the change rate of crude oil is in a negative range, and the forecast of the decline in retail guidance price of refined oil products began to appear.

Wang Luqing analyzed that considering that US President Ban Ki-moon will go abroad to visit Saudi Arabia, it is highly probable that Saudi Arabia will increase production, and both sides will actively and urgently avoid risks. At present, it is difficult for the sales market to pay attention to the shortage of specific idle capacity, and the verbal bad news will exceed the specific bad news. Therefore, it is predicted that the international crude oil price will fluctuate greatly in the next cycle, and the possibility of falling will expand.

Ma also pointed out that at this stage, the supply and demand of foreign markets are constantly playing games, and the market price fluctuation is intensified in a short period of time, and the probability of a new round of retail prices "falling for three consecutive days" is greater. According to the current cycle time of gasoline and diesel price adjustment, the next oil price adjustment will start at 24: 00 on July 26, 2022.