This round of deep decline in corn has lasted for a long time. To be precise, corn has been falling intermittently since May, and in August, the decline continued to increase.

Originally, it stands to reason that July and August are when the corn crop is not harvested, and the new corn has not yet been launched, which is when the old crop is "finally crazy". However, the corn in August fell like falling into a pit. Amazing.

By mid-to-late August, the market began to have a glimmer of hope that Mid-Autumn Festival stockings would be ready.

But now it seems that it is already the end of August, and the Mid-Autumn Festival is only about ten days away, but there has been no movement in the downstream stocking.

Why is there no movement?

1. Downstream consumption is sluggish, and the operating rate of deep processing is declining.

Generally speaking, when holidays are approaching, deep processing companies will stock up in advance according to the production cycle and holiday nodes. However, due to the sluggish consumption this year, downstream starch sugar, papermaking and food consumption have all performed poorly. Poor performance makes business confidence obviously low.

For example, affected by power restrictions in some areas of South China, East China, and Central China, the start-up rate of deep processing continues to decline. At the same time, due to sluggish demand, and during the period, companies intermittently purchased some corn at low prices, so the inventory is still There is stock, so there is no rush to replenish it.

On the other hand, the operating rate of corrugated paper, which is related to the demand for corn starch, is not high. Especially after entering the industry's off-season in August, consumption has become even more sluggish, so corporate purchases and stocking before the Mid-Autumn Festival have been delayed.

2. The supply is diversified, and feed companies have more choices.

At present, some spring corns have begun to appear on the market. At this time, price reductions for deep processing are also normal. However, feed companies have a long stocking cycle, and the current pig price has rebounded significantly, and according to market expectations , generally optimistic about pig prices in the third and fourth quarters.

According to this logic, feed companies should increase stocking, and the current corn price is already at a low value.

But in fact, the stocking needs of feed companies have not caused much splash. One of the important reasons is that feed companies have more choices.

I thought that after wheat was withdrawn as a substitute, corn would have "all the power", but this year the auction of directional rice started, replacing wheat and becoming a new substitute. In addition, spring corn is on the market, the supply has increased, and feed companies have There is no need to worry.

The two major demands for deep processing and feed stocking have failed, so corn continues to fall.

So when will corn rebound from the bottom of the pit? At present, this problem is an eternal problem.

Because in the short term, the chance of such a rebound is not high.

On the one hand, downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and on the other hand, it is getting closer and closer to the time for large quantities of northeastern corn to be launched, so it is basically difficult for corn to rise at this time.

However, we have also noticed that corn futures have picked up recently, and corn spot prices have begun to gradually stabilize.

On the one hand, the reason is that judging from the current price of corn, there is really not much room for decline.

On the other hand, how much impact does weather have on new corn? There are divergent opinions in the market now, and there is no accurate judgment, because many news cannot be verified, production cuts in individual regions may be exaggerated, and there is currently no exact data on the overall impact.

However, this may become an important opportunity for corn to bottom out and rebound.

Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the impact of weather on new season corn.

Generally speaking, corn production this year is really difficult, the price is unpredictable, and trade is difficult.