In 2012, although the precious metal market represented by gold and silver fell from its highest point, it basically maintained a high and volatile pattern because the global economic outlook was still unclear at that time and the Eurozone was in the process of removing bubbles. The prospects for U.S. economic recovery are also unclear. However, in 2013, especially starting from the second quarter, with the continued recovery of the US economy and the basic completion of the US economic transformation (the source of economic power has transformed from industrial manufacturing to technology manufacturing and the Internet industry, and has increased the scale of the service industry and upgraded and improve the service industry. Since the U.S. economic crisis, unemployment data in the manufacturing and real estate industries have continued to expand while employment in the service industry has continued to increase. Even now that the U.S. economy has basically come out of the trough, traditional manufacturing employment has not improved significantly and traditional industrial cities As can be seen from the constant news of government bankruptcy in Detroit) gold and silver have begun a large-scale decline, and have fallen by nearly 70% from the bottom since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007.

The basic situation of the gold market in recent years: With the substantial increase in global speculative funds, the dominant factor in gold prices has completely got rid of the relationship between supply and demand and depends on the direction of speculative funds (international hedge funds) choose. After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, gold rose sharply from more than 600 US dollars per ounce to 1,920 US dollars per ounce, an increase of as much as 200%. Such a sharp increase has led to a rapid expansion of book profits, and there must be a time to cash out, so we can see that in April 2013, there was a sharp decline of more than 200 US dollars (more than 15%) in two consecutive days. This is like the rapid decline of the Chinese stock market from more than 6,000 points. When we were long before, everyone made money together on the books, but when it started to fall rapidly, only those who sold early could realize the profit margin, and those who sold slowly would only lose their profits.

"In other words, during this period in early September, I was bearish on gold (the flash point was probably the non-agricultural data in September). After hitting the bottom again (personally It is estimated that the low may be around 1150). If there are no accidents, gold will not fall indefinitely but will restart its rebound. Instead, it will once again begin a range-bound market. As the U.S. economic situation changes, gold's shocks are expected to gradually Zoom in until the Federal Reserve officially ends its quantitative easing policy. This is a node. When the Federal Reserve completely withdraws from QE, it means that the golden period of the US stock market for more than a year will also end. The US stock market will begin to cyclically fluctuate at high levels, and funds will further move towards the US dollar. After the last wave of bottoming, gold began to rise slowly."

The above two paragraphs were written by me at the end of August when I was making predictions about the global capital market in September. It is predicted that gold will have a sharp drop in September. You can check my space log for details.