Compared with the stock market, the futures market pays more attention to the analysis of fundamental factors because of its different pricing mechanism. In a sense, stock market pricing is capital pricing. For stocks with fixed circulating share capital, the amount of capital involved determines the stock price (there is no short-selling mechanism in China stock market at present). However, the futures market is priced at spot, or at the expected value of spot price. The data shows that the correlation coefficient between soybean futures price and spot price in China in recent ten years is 0.90, so it is very important to study the basic factors that affect or determine the futures price trend in the futures market.

For the basic factor analysis, this paper briefly expounds the Liandu market.

First, on the basis of prioritizing, grasp the key factors that affect the staged market.

The so-called main factors refer to the most important factors that affect futures prices in a certain period of time, such as planting area, natural disasters and agricultural policies. The so-called key factor refers to the most fundamental and substantial factor that determines the staged market among the main factors. From March to May, 2000, the soybean futures price fluctuated in the range of 100, and the direction was unknown. At that time, the main long-short factors affecting the market were: strong spot, rising American market, accelerated accession to WTO, and a substantial increase in soybean planting area. The last one is the most fundamental substantive negative factor that determines the trend of the market outlook, and it is also a key factor, so it is not difficult to understand and predict the downward trend since the end of May.

Second, distinguish long-term factors from short-term factors and analyze the depth of their impact on the market.

Long-term factors guide the long-term trend of futures prices, that is, the general trend, which is composed of many factors, such as the total supply and demand of commodities, economic fluctuation cycle, financial and policy factors. The three-year bear market of liandou from 1996 is determined by long-term factors such as bumper harvests in successive years, sufficient spot supply, financial crisis in Southeast Asia, weak domestic demand, etc., while the stabilization from 1999 is also determined by long-term factors such as macroeconomic improvement at home and abroad, rising demand, deterioration of the world climate and environment, and gradual improvement of the situation of oversupply of food varieties. The influence of long-term factors on the market will also go through a process from weak to strong and from strong to weak. For example, China's accession to the WTO has always been a long-term negative factor in the soybean market, but with the passage of time and the market's digestion of this negative factor, its impact is getting smaller and smaller at present, while the long-term positive factors such as the deterioration of climate and environment, the lack of water resources and the increase in demand are getting stronger and stronger in the soybean market.

Third, comprehensive analysis of long and short factors, both positive and negative aspects should be studied.

The mistake investors often make is that when they hold long positions, or when the market is bullish, they will intentionally or unintentionally collect all kinds of bullish information to support their views, and subjectively ignore all kinds of negative factors, and vice versa. This kind of secrecy will often bear bitter fruit, so investors must collect both positive and negative information comprehensively, not just one.

Fourth, treat investment comments and expert opinions dialectically.

We have to face all kinds of comments and news every day and learn to treat them dialectically. In fact, it is better to rely on others than on yourself, especially for some biased comments. For example, on March 4 this year, when Liandou just started to plummet, an investment institution listed a series of "reasons" in its comments, arguing that "this decline should be bear trap, and the decline is basically in place." After the market closed, the author consulted the report of Lian Dou's position and found that this institution is one of the main forces of quilt cover, so judging this comment is biased and not worthy of reference.

Fifth, pay attention to official reports and your own research.

World agricultural products supply and demand forecast, oil crops survey, crop progress and crop progress released by the US Department of Agriculture; The forecast report of soybean planting area in China released by the National Bureau of Statistics every March, as well as the reports of domestic authoritative newspapers and TV stations on agrometeorology, harvest and agricultural policies, are all official reports worthy of comprehensive study. If conditions permit, investors can also go to the main production and marketing areas in person for on-the-spot investigation or telephone understanding, or consult spot merchants. Actual investigation can help investors distinguish right from wrong and strengthen their confidence.

To sum up, a comprehensive and dialectical analysis of various fundamental factors affecting the futures market with the correct method can more accurately grasp the general trend and find the root cause of price changes, but we should pay attention to two points: First, fundamental analysis is more suitable for large futures varieties, and sometimes fundamental analysis is in a secondary position for some small varieties that are easily manipulated by funds; Second, basic analysis should be combined with technical analysis, which can improve the success rate.