A month ago, negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries failed, and it was decided to drastically reduce the price of crude oil and increase the total output. Such a "broken wrist" move has caused the international crude oil price to fall below the mineral water price, while the domestic oil price has also hit a new low in refined oil prices in recent years with the trend of world oil prices. Take Beijing as an example. As of April, the price of No.92 gasoline was generally in 5.5 yuan.
As the leader of this crude oil campaign, Saudi Arabia was a little impulsive when it decided to "go to war", but after the impulse, it still had to surrender to the market tide rationally. On Easter Day in the West (April 12, Beijing time), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries formally reached a historic agreement with its oil-producing allies. According to the agreement, 23 countries promised to reduce the oil supply to the global market by 9.7 million barrels per day, accounting for more than 13% of the original global oil production. At this point, the international crude oil price war officially came to an end.
Seeing this, everyone must be a little fidgety. I don't care about the oil war. I'm only concerned about whether domestic gasoline will go up or not.
At the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, countries reached a production reduction agreement after many discussions. The scale of production reduction is 9.7 million barrels per day in May-June this year, 7.7 million barrels per day at the end of July, and 5.8 million barrels per day in 20021-April 2022. This is also the largest production reduction agreement reached since the establishment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries mechanism.
After this agreement was reached, the overall international oil price rose in stages, but it was still at a low level. Up to now, the US WTI crude oil futures price and the British Brent crude oil futures price have not exceeded 40 US dollars/barrel, which is the "floor price" for domestic refined oil price regulation. This price means that the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices will continue to run aground, and the refueling price will not change.
What's the reserve price?
As a big oil importer and consumer, China's oil price stability is related to the smooth operation of the whole market economy. As the father of mass consumption, too high or too low oil will directly affect the national economy.
Since March, the international oil price has been in a very unstable stage and fluctuated greatly, which has caused many "bad consequences" on the international economic level.
In the early years, in order to prevent these bad market phenomena, the state set "floor price" and "maximum price" for oil prices, which can not only safeguard the interests of car owners and consumers, but also avoid the excessive rise of domestic refined oil prices when international crude oil prices rise sharply; Setting "floor price" is conducive to maintaining the normal operation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the oil industry and ensuring normal market supply. When the "floor price" is triggered, the unadjusted amount of domestic refined oil prices will be turned over to the state treasury as a risk reserve, which is mainly used to save energy and reduce emissions, improve oil quality and ensure the safety of oil supply.
The National Development and Reform Commission also explained that the "floor price" of oil is $40/barrel: "It is determined by comprehensively considering the domestic crude oil exploitation cost, the long-term trend of oil price in the international market, China's energy policy and other factors. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, the average crude oil production cost of major international oil companies is about 40 dollars per barrel, and the crude oil production cost is higher in China due to resource endowment and other reasons. Production cost is the main factor that determines the long-term trend of international oil prices. At present, it is appropriate to set 40 US dollars per barrel as the lower limit of regulation. "
Conclusion: Since the beginning of this year, China's refined oil prices have been in an embarrassing situation of "three falls and three stranded", which is good news from the perspective of car users. At present, the futures prices of WTI and Brent crude oil are still below $40/barrel, which does not reach the "floor price" of the domestic market. Therefore, it can be inferred that the oil price window at 24: 00 on April 15 will still be in the 5 yuan era.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.