The author thinks that 1849 can hardly be the bottom of history. There are three reasons to support my view. First, the K-line that bottomed out on June 25th was a single-needle K-line, and there was a V-shaped reversal in the market that day. The author also observed that there has never been a V-shaped inversion pattern in every historical outsole, so from the morphological point of view, the single-needle bottoming pattern is not solid. Second, there was a heavy volume on the day of the decline, indicating that the kinetic energy of the empty side was not exhausted. Third, the upper medium-and long-term moving averages are dead forks, showing a short arrangement. Judging from the moving average, the strength of the empty side is still very strong.

Reasons for Deviation between Main Board and Growth Enterprise Market

Not long ago, the main board market hit a new low since the adjustment in 2009, while the GEM index hit a new high. There are three main reasons for the deviation. First of all, GEM performed better than the main board in the first quarter, which laid a solid foundation for the growth of GEM stocks. Secondly, in the current situation that the liquidity of the A-share market is very tight, it is quite difficult for funds to expand the market value of stocks, but it is very easy to pull the GEM. In addition, at present, under the pursuit of funds, traditional cyclical stocks have been difficult to attract investors' attention, and small and medium-sized stocks supported by national policies have become investment targets.

Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in stock index futures and bond markets.

The author finds that there is a 2% risk-free arbitrage opportunity in stock index futures. IF 1307 contract discounts up to 60 points. Through estimation, I get that the decline of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is only 0.28%, which is about 6 points. Therefore, the main reason for the spot price difference discount is the market sentiment factor. Future reverse arbitrage opportunities can continue to be concerned, that is, shorting the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF and buying the corresponding share of the stock index futures contract of the month. Excluding the cost, the absolute income exceeds 2%. (The longest time required is 15 natural days)

The author also believes that the current bond market is worthy of attention. Capital pursues profitability and security. In the case of uncertain profitability, high risk, low risk and fixed income, investors will not hesitate to choose the latter. The stock market has long been greatly influenced by the real economy. When the real economy encounters structural difficulties and investors have no confidence in the fundamentals of the real economy, they must choose to stay away from the stock market and be close to the bond market with less risk of fixed income. Based on the prediction that the real economy is unlikely to improve significantly in the second half of the year, we believe that the bond market will remain an investment channel that investors are keen on.