With the recent increase in the overall price of live pigs in China (the increase has exceeded 40%), the demand for feed is also expected to pick up, and it is expected that the feed price will continue to maintain a high level in the future.
In addition, due to the continuous negative impact of the crude oil market, the domestic soybean meal price has plummeted in turn, but even so, the pace of feed price increase has not stopped.
So how much is the feed now? What is the trend in the second half of 2022? Let's make a simple prediction and analysis together.
How much is the feed now
Cake feed (rapeseed meal, bean cake, soybean meal, cotton meal, etc.). ): Cake feed in Gaocheng District, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province 2 158. 1 yuan/ton; The cake feed in Fengyang County, Chuzhou City, Anhui Province is 3300 yuan/ton; Meal feed 1500 yuan/ton in Dongping county, Taian city; Cake feed 1600 yuan/ton in Mazhang District, Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province.
Grain feed (corn cob, grain, pigeon food, etc.). ): 640 yuan/ton of grain feed in Linquan County, Fuyang City, Anhui Province; 560 yuan/ton of grain feed in Linqu County, Weifang City, Shandong Province; Grain feed 1380 yuan/ton in Zhengding County, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province.
Straw feed (straw, sorghum straw, peanut seedling, wheat straw, corn straw, etc. ): 800 yuan/ton of straw feed in Julu County, Xingtai City, Hebei Province; 660 yuan/ton of straw feed in Shuangtaizi District, Panjin City, Liaoning Province; 500 yuan/ton of straw feed in Yuanping City, Xinzhou City, Shanxi Province; Straw feed 1000 yuan/ton in Taikang County, Zhoukou City, Henan Province; Lu Xian County, Luzhou City, Sichuan Province straw feed 420 yuan/ton.
Silage (green grass, corn silage, oat silage, sugarcane tail silage, etc. ): 660 yuan/ton of silage in Huimin District, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia; Zhijiang city, Yichang City, Hubei Province silage 380 yuan/ton; 400 yuan/ton of silage in Huicheng District, Huizhou City, Guangdong Province; 320 yuan/ton silage in Hengzhou City, Nanning City, Guangxi; 600 yuan tons of silage in Lintong District, Xi, Shaanxi Province; 400 yuan/ton silage in Zepu County, Kashi, Xinjiang.
Bran feed (bread crumbs, wheat bran, rice bran, oil bran, corn husk, etc.). ): Wheat bran feed 1900 yuan/ton in Longkou City, Yantai City, Shandong Province; 960 yuan/ton of bran feed in Puyang County, Puyang City, Henan Province; 580 yuan/ton of bran feed in Beibei District; The bran feed in Xuanwei City, Qujing City, Yunnan Province is 2660 yuan/ton.
Remarks: The above feed quotations are all from the wholesale market of Huinong origin. Com, not the market retail price, for reference only!
Forecast and market analysis of feed price trend in the second half of 2022
Since June, more than 100 feed enterprises in Shandong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Fujian and other provinces have issued price increase notices, including leading enterprises such as Haida, Tongwei, Aohua and Hengxing, with an average increase of 100 yuan -600 yuan/ton.
The reason for the increase in feed prices is also very simple. One is the boosting effect of rising pig prices, and the other is the rising cost of raw materials. So even if soybean meal continues to fall in the near future, it can only offset a small part of the impact. On the whole, feed still keeps rising.
For the trend of feed in the second half of 2022, many experts said that the possibility of subsequent feed prices falling back or stabilizing at a high level is low.
Because the current rising cost of raw materials market is a reality, it is unlikely to reduce prices in the second half of the year.
On the other hand, affected by the international situation, global supply is still tight. For example, Indian government data show that the output of the main wheat producing areas in India fell to the lowest level in 20 years this year; The USDA also said that in 2022, the corn planting area in the United States is expected to decrease by 3.867 million acres compared with last year.
In this case of reduced production, the prices of feed and related by-products are naturally easy to rise and difficult to fall, which will also drive up domestic prices to a certain extent.
Therefore, to sum up, it is expected that the overall market trend of feed prices will be good in the second half of 2022, and the pig price will also have a strong trend in the second half of 2022, which will support the feed demand side to some extent.
From mid-April, fattening pigs basically began to be slaughtered in the middle and late June, and the terminal may prepare the goods in advance. Feed consumption is expected to peak this month.
Is there any subsidy for changing food and feeding this year?
This year, there are subsidies for changing grain to feed, but the policy requirements in each region are different, so the subsidy standards are different. You can consult the relevant local departments for details.
The following are the food and feed subsidy standards in some areas in 2022:
Yushu city, Jilin Province 1
According to the implementation plan of the grain-to-feed project in Yulin in 2022, it is required that the subsidy per ton of silage corn should not exceed that of 60 yuan.
2. Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province
Take the way of "build first and then make up", in which the subsidy per ton of high-quality forage does not exceed 53 yuan.
3. Tianshui City, Gansu Province
In 2022, Tianshui identified 26 municipal demonstration sites for changing grain to feed, with a total subsidy of 23.42 million yuan.
4. Huai 'an County, Hebei Province
In 2022, Huai 'an County plans to subsidize the storage and storage of silage corn by 7,665,438+10,000 tons, with a subsidy fund of 4.566 million yuan.
5. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
For excellent forage and mulberry branch feed, a one-time reward will be given according to the standard of not exceeding 60 yuan/ton.
Generally speaking, in the second half of 2022, it is expected that the feed price will continue to maintain a high and stable operation, and farmers will temporarily have to "carry the burden", so farmers need to control the breeding cost reasonably.
But fortunately, the pig price will be better in the second half of the year. Everyone should choose the timing of selling according to their actual situation to ensure profits.
And don't worry too much about the rise of feed. On the one hand, the domestic feed production situation is generally stable, and it is difficult to achieve a big increase; On the other hand, this year, all localities will continue to implement the policy of "changing grain to feed" to help everyone indirectly increase their income.
Finally, what do you think of the price of this feed? Welcome to leave a message for discussion.