[Date: June 2006-15/KLOC-0: 42: 00 Source: Ministry of Commerce website]
In sharp contrast to the sharp rise in global resource commodity prices, the prices of agricultural products have remained at a low level due to the impact of bird flu and the relationship between supply and demand. Despite this, the overall commodity price index is still rising, the futures price index of the Bureau of Commodity Research of the United States is constantly refreshing the historical high point, and global inflation has shown signs. In the future, the price trend of agricultural products will be seriously affected by the global interest rate hike, and the price of agricultural products will skyrocket.
First of all, the internal causes of inflation cannot be eliminated. The depreciation of the dollar will continue, and commodity prices will be revalued as a whole. This round of inflation began with the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, and the internal motivation of the depreciation of the US dollar is the trade imbalance and government deficit in the United States. Twin deficits is the most important fundamental factor that puzzles the dollar. Under the background that the twin deficits issue has not been improved, the depreciation of the US dollar will continue. As the US dollar is still the world's central currency and has a monopoly position in the international settlement market, the long-term depreciation of the US dollar will cause the overall rise of commodity prices, just as the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system has affected the huge fluctuations of global commodity prices, and a large number of "petrodollars" and international hot money will further aggravate the fluctuations of commodity prices. The world economy continues to grow, but it is restricted by the "bottleneck" of resource commodities. The sustained growth of the global economy, especially the so-called BRIC countries-China, India, Brazil and Russia, has laid a solid foundation for the rapid development of the world economy. The economic take-off of these four countries will have a far greater impact on the global economy than any previous global economic take-off period. However, the economic development of these countries will be restricted by the "bottleneck" of resource commodities, especially non-renewable resources such as crude oil, which will cause the price and cost of resource commodities to rise.
At present, China is facing great inflationary pressure, the source of which is abroad. First, China faces imported inflationary pressure. In 2003, the external dependence of China crude oil, iron ore and alumina reached 35%, 36% and 46% respectively, and nickel and natural rubber reached more than 55%. Imported inflation has become an important factor in the rise of domestic prices. The research of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center shows that the price increase of international crude oil and other primary products will affect domestic prices in three ways: one is "imported inflation" that directly promotes domestic price increase; Second, the "cost-driven inflation" caused by rising import prices; The third is to drive up wages, interest rates and rents. This will lead to an overall increase in product prices. In the foreseeable future, the international oil price will remain high, but the domestic oil pricing mechanism is not perfect at present, which will aggravate the fluctuation of domestic oil price, so it is very likely that the overall oil price will rise. In addition, the depreciation of the US dollar has greatly increased the cost of China's imported goods, further increasing the pressure of rising domestic commodity prices.
Secondly, the increase of money supply also objectively affects the rise of commodity prices. At present, RMB is still a dollar-based currency. The more US dollar reserves, the more RMB will be issued. Dollars earned by exporters, investment in dollars and speculative "hot money" have flooded into the market, all of which are reflected in China's increasing foreign exchange reserves. The influx of international capital forced the central bank to buy dollars in large quantities and throw out RMB. The resulting large amount of money not only suppressed the value of the RMB, but also flooded the economic system with a lot of liquidity. According to the 1 quarterly economic data released by the central bank and the National Bureau of Statistics, RMB loans increased by 1 .26 trillion yuan in1quarter, an increase of 5 1.93 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for half of the annual credit target of 2.5 trillion yuan. At the same time, the currency liquidity increased by 93.5%. This will undoubtedly increase the pressure of inflation, because the typical performance of long-term excessive money supply is rising prices.
So, how to judge whether there is inflation in China? Generally speaking, the consumer price index (CPI) is the basis for judging whether there is inflation. Judging from the five economic growth cycles in the past 20 years, 5% CPI is a key figure. CPI is relatively normal within 5%, which belongs to the green light area; CPI is between 5% and 9%, which belongs to moderate inflation and is a yellow light area; More than 9% is serious inflation, especially in the red light district. China's CPI does not reflect the real inflation. It is understood that CPI includes eight categories: food, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, clothing, household equipment supplies and services, medical care and personal supplies, transportation and communication, entertainment, education, cultural supplies and services, and housing, and there is no real estate. In recent years, the biggest expenditure of residents is house price, which is also unreasonable. The actual inflation rate in China should be higher than the published level, because the prices of "bottleneck" sectors such as coal, electricity, oil and transportation are controlled or intervened by the state, not determined by the market. At present, the "bottleneck" pressure of coal, electricity and oil transportation has not been alleviated, and the CPI data obviously underestimates the real inflationary pressure. Generally speaking, there is indeed a great inflationary pressure in China, but it is still under the intervention and control of the government, but as long as the source of inflation is not solved, this pressure will become more and more serious. Under the current background of globalization, China can't do anything about the continuous rise of resource commodity prices.
To sum up, it is expected that the price increase of agricultural products will be difficult to curb. Historically and economically, rising food prices are often the main cause of inflation. Generally speaking, the rise in food prices means a precursor to a new round of inflation. All previous inflation in China has a very close relationship with the trend of agricultural product prices. 1994, the starting factor of high inflation in China is the price of agricultural products. 1994, the rise of agricultural products affects the retail price change by 70%; 1995 In the first half of the year, food prices rose by 33%, accounting for 12.7 percentage points of the increase in retail prices. Cost-shock inflation caused by rising prices of basic commodities represented by agricultural products was the main feature of inflation in that year.
Judging from the current price of agricultural products, if the appreciation of the US dollar and the inflation rate are calculated, the current price of agricultural products is at a historical low level, and compared with the prices of energy and industrial products, the price of agricultural products is seriously underestimated. Although the inventory level of bulk agricultural products is high, the pressure of cost increase is gradually transmitted to all levels of the economic system due to the continuous rise of energy prices. The pressure of increasing the planting cost of agricultural products and decreasing the planting income will inhibit production, and the development of industrial civilization will destroy the global environment. Climate conditions will also become worse; At the same time, high oil prices promote the development of alternative fuels, and the demand for all crops that can be used as alternative energy sources will increase substantially, and the supply and demand pattern of related agricultural products will also undergo fundamental changes, which will eventually lead to a sharp rise in agricultural products, thus triggering a new round of inflation. When agricultural products and energy prices rise in turn, inflation will be more difficult to control. Therefore, although it is difficult to find the reason for the sharp rise in prices from the current supply and demand pattern of agricultural products, it is an inevitable trend from the macro-fundamentals.