In recent years, the economies of Asia-Pacific countries have continued to develop, and the Asia-Pacific region has become the fastest growing region in the world. Based on a large number of economic data, the author analyzes the current situation of international oil trade, and discusses the development trend and main problems of China's oil trade. He thinks that it is of great significance to establish oil futures and increase strategic oil reserves in China to strengthen China's oil security strategy.
international crude oil trade
Asia is the world's largest importer of crude oil, accounting for 47% of the world's crude oil imports. The stagnant and shrinking demand for crude oil in the United States and Europe has promoted Asia's share of global crude oil trade to rise. It is predicted that from 211 to 216, the growth of crude oil demand and refining capacity in Asia will promote the demand for crude oil and oil tankers in Asia. The rapid enhancement of refining capacity in Asia has met the growing domestic demand, and the improvement of refining capacity will promote the growth of crude oil imports in Asia.
oil prices fluctuate greatly, and China's crude oil pricing is in a passive state. WTI oil price increased from $99.65/barrel at the end of 211 to $19.91/barrel, and decreased to $77.69/barrel in June 212. Brent oil price rose from $16.51/barrel to $126.47/barrel, and fell to $91.35/barrel in June 212. Because the liquidity of Brent crude oil futures is very good, and the spread trading between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil is also very active in the OTC market, WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures have become the crude oil pricing benchmarks in North America and Europe. Most of the crude oil trade in Asia refers to the spot evaluation price of Dubai crude oil, but the price of Dubai crude oil depends on the Brent crude oil futures price and the spread between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil traded in the OTC market, so there is no independent and authoritative crude oil pricing benchmark in Asia.
the current situation of China's oil trade
China's oil consumption has grown at an average annual rate of 7.3%. In the past 2 years, oil consumption has increased by nearly 28 million tons, accounting for 5% of the annual growth of oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region and 35% of the world's oil consumption. The proportion of oil consumption in the world has exceeded 1%, and both consumption and import have surpassed Japan, becoming the second largest oil consumer in the world.
importing crude oil is the main way of oil trade. In 211, China's oil trade volume reached 333 million tons, of which 3 million tons were imported and 3 million tons were exported. In imports, crude oil is 25 million tons, accounting for 83% of the total imports, and in exports, petroleum products are 3 million tons, accounting for 92% of the total exports.
The import sources are diversified, and the Middle East is still the main source. In 1995, China's import sources were mainly Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Africa, Europe, America, Oceania and other places. In 211, the source of oil in the Middle East increased, and Saudi Arabia grew significantly, and it is currently the largest supplier; The decrease in imports from the Asia-Pacific region is mainly affected by the limited increase in resources and the increase in local demand; Imports from Latin America and Africa have increased considerably.
The main imported petroleum products are fuel oil. In 211, China imported 52.16 million tons of petroleum products, including 26.83 million tons of fuel oil, accounting for 51.4%. The growth of refining raw materials and marine fuel supported the demand for fuel oil, and the import volume of liquefied gas, naphtha, lubricating oil, asphalt and petroleum coke remained at the level of 3-5 million tons.
The main petroleum products exported are gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil. In 211, the export volume of gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil accounted for 69% of the export volume of petroleum products. Gasoline export is mainly to balance market supply and demand.
China's oil resources have a low safety factor and a high degree of external dependence. In 211, China's foreign dependence on crude oil reached 56.5%, surpassing the United States' 53.5% for the first time. The import dependence of oil and natural gas will increase rapidly in the future. The most direct manifestation of the high dependence of oil on foreign countries is that oil price pricing is in a passive situation. International oil prices rose sharply last year, with Brent's average annual oil price reaching $111.23/barrel, an increase of 39.9%, the highest level ever.
the diversification of transportation channels is mainly reflected in maritime transportation and the increase of onshore pipeline traffic. China-Russia, China-Kazakhstan and China-Myanmar pipelines will become an important source of onshore oil imports in China.
infrastructure construction in the middle and lower reaches is the key to petroleum trade
facilities in the middle and lower reaches mainly include oil refining facilities, storage facilities and logistics facilities. First, oil refining facilities. Because there are refined oil products in the transaction, refining facilities are needed to process crude oil.
secondly, storage facilities. Both crude oil and refined oil need storage bases. At present, Singapore has become the largest oil storage, logistics and trading transit base in Asia-Pacific by virtue of its geographical advantages. Singapore is the third largest oil trade center and the largest marine fuel port in the world after new york and London. In China, the warehousing industry is expanding rapidly, and the market players in the warehousing industry are more diversified. Three major groups, local port groups, foreign companies, private enterprises and even state-owned investment companies have stepped in one after another, relying on the advantages of integrated management, local resources and capital. The scale of oil depot construction has become large, and oil companies and private enterprises have stepped in the construction of crude oil commercial reserves, and specialized warehousing enterprises have expanded in the network. At the same time, due to the shortage of land coastline, the resource attributes of warehousing projects are increasingly enhanced, attracting more enterprises to enter. Resulting in increasingly fierce market competition.
professional third-party petrochemical warehousing operators will become the mainstream of the industry, mainly including four categories. The first category is completely independent warehousing companies, whose core business is to build and operate docks and warehousing facilities and provide warehousing transit services for external customers. The second category is professional operators with "internal business". Warehousing is an independent business sector, but the parent company is engaged in petrochemical, transportation, port and other related businesses; The third category is large oil companies, which mainly provide terminals and storage facilities for their own refineries and occasionally provide external storage services. The fourth category is oil trading companies, which invest in third-party storage facilities for their own trade activities.
finally, the logistics facilities. The traded crude oil and refined oil need to be distributed through a complete logistics network, and the Asia-Pacific region is relatively weak in this respect.
possible future development orientation
1. accelerate the construction of crude oil futures market and improve the right to speak on oil price pricing. In the long run, with the gradual improvement of China's market economy system, the linkage between domestic and international oil markets will be significantly enhanced, and the price risk will rise. Therefore, it is necessary to establish China's oil trading market and improve the pricing power of the international oil market. 2. Increase the construction of oil reserves, establish and improve the commercial reserve and emergency supply system of refined oil products, and cope with the risk of international oil price fluctuation and the strain on its resources.