1. In view of the continuous rise in commodity prices, the National Development and Reform Commission has frequently stated recently that this round of price increases is not a general price increase, but concentrated on large industrial products in the middle and upper reaches, affecting the profits of downstream enterprises; It is also pointed out that there is no overall and trend change at both ends of supply and demand of bulk commodities, and their prices do not have the basis for long-term rise.
2. At the same time, from the market point of view, long-process and short-process steel mills can also release a certain increase in rebar supply, while from the policy point of view, under the guidance of "carbon neutrality", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology put forward the task of reducing crude steel production, which has a great impact on the steel market sentiment. On February 28th, the National Bureau of Statistics issued a communique to increase the crude steel output of China from 65.438+53 billion tons to 65.438+65 billion tons in 2020.
3. "Because the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not mention the reduction, on the basis of the adjusted crude steel output in 2020, we estimate the possible impact according to three situations: the same year, the reduction of100000 tons, and the reduction of 20 million tons." According to industry insiders, if the task of reducing crude steel production is strictly implemented, the national output will be reduced by 3%-5.4% in the future, and the demand for rebar is expected to maintain a positive growth trend year-on-year. The strict implementation of crude steel reduction task will inevitably bring obvious supply gap to the rebar market, which can only be made up by export reflux.
The second reason for the rise: the slowdown in inventory has slowed down again.
1. With the continuous rise of steel prices, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been maintained at a high level. According to the investigation by Mysteel, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.43%, up by 1.30% compared with last week and down by 7.68% compared with the same period last year. The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 88.75%, an increase of 65,438 0.08% from the previous month and 65,438 0.50% from the same period last year. The profitability of steel mills was 90.04%, which was flat from the previous month and flat year-on-year. The average daily output of molten iron was 2,362,300 tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the previous month and 40,000 tons from the same period last year.
2.Mysteel survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel plant is 6 1.46%, which is 1.38% higher than last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 73. 1 1%, which is1higher than last month.