Interview with Zeng, deputy director of the State Grain Bureau, the fundamentals of grain supply and demand do not support a sharp rise in prices. Grain supply and demand are basically stable, and stocks are relatively abundant. At present, the focus of macro-control of grain is "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices". Xu Shujun's People's Daily Overseas Edition (05 edition, 20 10,19), will the price of autumn grain fluctuate greatly when the international food price changes greatly? How do macro-control departments respond to price fluctuations in the domestic grain market? Can the futures market make a difference in stabilizing food prices? In this regard, the deputy director of the State Grain Administration once said in an exclusive interview that the focus of the current macro-control of grain is to "ensure supply and stabilize prices", which should not only ensure the stability of market prices, but also protect farmers' interests and enthusiasm for growing grain, and find an optimal balance between the two. Fundamentals do not support a sharp rise in food prices. Q: It is the grain harvest season. How to forecast the situation of autumn grain in 20 10? Zeng: Based on all aspects, we can draw such a basic judgment: the harvest of autumn grain is a foregone conclusion. The increase in autumn grain production is mainly in Heilongjiang in the northeast. At present, the output of corn, rice and soybean in Northeast China will increase compared with the previous year. Generally speaking, this year is another bumper harvest year, and the acquisition of autumn grain has a good material foundation. Q: What are the main reasons for the continuous price increase in the domestic grain market? The reduction of summer grain production has brought some market participants the expectation that food prices will continue to rise. What impact will the autumn harvest have on food prices now? Zeng: The rise in food prices is the result of many factors, including production cost, demand growth, variety structure contradiction, inflation expectation, excess liquidity, international market transmission, psychological expectation and capital speculation. Specifically, the situation of each variety is different. For example, the total output of winter wheat was 265.438+076 billion Jin, an increase of 2 billion Jin over the previous year, which was the seventh consecutive year of increasing production. However, domestic prices are still rising. It should be said that the reason for the rise in wheat prices does not come from supply and demand. The price increase of corn and japonica rice is mainly due to the rapid growth of demand, and the price has been basically stable after the country continued to increase grain stocks. Generally speaking, the steady rise of grain prices is conducive to protecting farmers' interests, mobilizing farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and promoting the stable development of grain production. This is undeniable. This is our expectation and one of the purposes of macro-control of grain. However, if the market price of food rises sharply, it will be abnormal. The regulation of the grain market should not only prevent the price from rising sharply, but also prevent the price from falling sharply. It is necessary to mobilize farmers' enthusiasm, promote the stable development of grain production, and ensure the realization of macro-control objectives, maintain market stability and protect consumers' interests. At present, China's grain supply and demand are basically stable, and the inventory is relatively abundant. The fundamentals of supply and demand do not support a sharp rise in prices, and the country is fully capable of ensuring market supply. Q: In 20 10, the international food situation was relatively tight. Some countries, such as Russia, banned food exports, and international food prices soared. How to treat the possible impact of international food price fluctuation on China's domestic market? Zeng: With the acceleration of globalization, the correlation between international and domestic markets is getting higher and higher, and the influence of international grain market prices on domestic markets is also increasing. But at present, for the three major varieties of wheat, rice and corn, the impact of the international market is not great, mainly because the domestic production and demand of these three major varieties are basically balanced. Therefore, in recent years, when food prices in the international market skyrocketed and plummeted, food prices in the domestic market remained basically stable. I think everyone can see this clearly. The increase in corn imports is a corporate behavior. Q: We noticed that in130,000 mu of autumn grain, corn reached120,000 mu. What impact will this have on the next corn price trend? Zeng: At present, the national corn stocks are sufficient, the market supply is completely guaranteed, and the pattern of basic balance between corn supply and demand has not changed much. It is a foregone conclusion that corn production will increase this year, and the fundamentals of corn supply and demand do not support a sharp rise in prices. However, at present, the factors affecting the grain market price are complex, so we should pay close attention to the corn market price, do a good job of market regulation in a timely and moderate manner, and keep the corn price basically stable at a reasonable level. Q: Since corn stocks are sufficient, why did the import of 20 10 corn increase? Is it possible to import a lot of corn in the future? Zeng: According to customs statistics, China imported 715,000 tons of corn from June to August. The annual consumption of corn in China is about 65.438+0.5 billion tons, and the domestic corn output is basically maintained at this level. This year, domestic corn production has achieved a bumper harvest, and the national corn stock is abundant. Therefore, on the whole, the import volume is not large, which has little impact on the domestic market and mainly plays a regulatory role. At present, corn import is the independent behavior of enterprises, not the country needs to import corn to ensure the domestic market supply. Whether corn enterprises will increase corn imports mainly depends on enterprise demand and market price. Strengthening the ability to cope with market fluctuations Q: In the face of the current grain situation at home and abroad, what measures will the State Grain Administration take next to stabilize the control targets? Zeng: First, actively do a good job in purchasing autumn grain, implement policies such as minimum purchase price, and protect farmers' interests and enthusiasm for growing grain; Second, implement relevant policies, standardize the grain market order, and keep grain prices basically stable; Third, continue to do a good job in policy grain sales, continue to arrange policy grain auction sales by stages, adjust the sales varieties, quantities and reserve prices in a timely manner to ensure supply and stabilize market prices; Fourth, strengthen reserve management and emergency support, and effectively enhance the country's macro-control ability and ability to cope with market fluctuations; Fifth, strengthen the cooperation between production and marketing, guide the sales areas to purchase production areas in an orderly manner, optimize the layout of inventory areas, and promote regional balance; Sixth, improve the grain market monitoring and information release system, expand the monitoring scope, timely adjust the monitoring frequency, timely release relevant information, strengthen information guidance, and stabilize market expectations. Q: How to evaluate the development status of China grain futures market, and what role can futures play in stabilizing grain prices? Zeng: It's not easy for China futures market to get this far. Futures trading generally has two functions, risk locking and hedging, and the price can be found in the standardized futures market. Farmers in the United States are basically hedging, so their futures prices can reflect the trend of commodity prices. In China, due to the small production scale of farmers, few farmers hedge and lock in risks. China's grain futures market participation is not enough, and its development potential is still great. With the continuous development and improvement of the futures market, China's grain futures market will also play a greater role in promoting farmers' income, developing grain industry and serving the national macro-control of grain.