Anyone who has worked in the precious metals market knows that the impact of non-agriculture on the price trend of precious metals, especially spot silver, is enormous, and the price often fluctuates greatly before and after the data is released. In order to make investors better profit from non-agriculture, we will deeply analyze the impact of non-agricultural data on precious metals.
First of all, we need to understand what non-agricultural means. As the name implies, non-agriculture refers to the value of non-agricultural employment population, and as the world's largest economic power, we usually refer to the non-agricultural value of the United States. As a non-agricultural employment population, non-agricultural employment includes the employment population of manufacturing and service industries, which also reflects the current economic development level of the country, because manufacturing and service industries are the secondary industry and the tertiary industry respectively, and their employment population directly reflects the consumption level of the country. If its value becomes smaller, it means that the productivity of enterprises in this country has decreased, the economy has entered a depression, the consumption level of the people has decreased, and the market has fallen into a highly sensitive period. On the contrary, the increase in value shows that the social economy is good, the productivity of enterprises is high, the consumption power of the people is enhanced, and the market is highly active. But what effect does it have on precious metals?
American non-agricultural data and its unemployment rate data are released together, and the two data complement each other, which can often achieve twice the result with half the effort. The above three aspects show that American non-agricultural data are closely related to the country's consumer market and economic development. Therefore, the increase in non-agricultural data shows that the US economy is improving, which is good for the US dollar and bad for gold and silver; On the other hand, if its value is reduced, it shows that the US economy is in a downturn, which is naturally bad for the US dollar and good for gold and silver.
However, we can often see that non-agricultural data has three values: the previous value, the predicted value and the actual published value. The previous value is the actual value published last month and is a basis for this data. On this basis, the forecast value is the market's forecast of the economic development of the United States according to the economic data of the past month, and it is also a numerical forecast of the subsequent non-agricultural data. The forecast value represents the market expectation. Therefore, in order to judge the market reaction through the actual published value, it is necessary to compare the difference between the actual published value and the predicted value to further judge the price trend of gold and silver. Simply put, when the actual published value is greater than the predicted value, gold and silver are bad; When the actual published value is less than the predicted value, gold and silver are bullish.
Take this month's non-agricultural data (20 13.5.3) as an example. Before the data was released, the market began to warm up expectations. After the data was released, the actual data was much larger than the predicted value, and the price of gold and silver began to accelerate, but it began to return to normal after that day. Therefore, we should also know the impact of this economic data on the trend of gold and silver, especially spot silver. Therefore, investors should be prepared before their own data is released, so as to make a leisurely profit.
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