Because the commodity itself has an inventory cycle, the essence of the trend is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is the price increase in the process of inventory reconstruction, and the other is the price decline in the process of destocking.

In fact, the development of commodity futures is in line with the trend, and how to predict the trend also has its own tricks. Many investors will put too much energy into the trading chart, and the result is only a reflection and explanation of the trend appearance. Predicting the trend by drawing charts like this doesn't grasp the essence of the trend.

To judge the change of supply and demand in commodity futures market, investors can refer to finished goods index and new order index. Whether in the stage of rebuilding or destocking, the role of commodity supply is bound to be greater than that of demand, so the product index will change accordingly. The above is the explanation of active response.