Core view
1. The direct cause of the current increase in methanol is the change of methanol pricing system caused by the continuous depreciation of RMB. The fundamental reason is that the supply and demand of methanol market is tight, the inventory is low and accumulated less than expected, and there is a certain degree of congestion in the atmosphere of strong funds.
2. In terms of supply, after the overhaul of domestic and foreign devices from March to May, methanol in Guanzhong, Shandong and other places was restricted by environmental protection in early July, so it has been difficult for domestic supply to increase significantly.
3. The monthly difference logic of methanol has changed. Previously, due to the seasonality of methanol 09 contract weaker than 0 1 contract, the monthly difference of methanol in September was empty 1 month. However, with the appearance of crowded market in 2009, it is obviously inappropriate to continue to do reverse hedging, because the crowded market in recent months is stronger than that in the distant months, which is logically contradictory to reverse hedging.
In the second half of the week, methanol futures rose sharply for two consecutive trading days, and it was a daily limit on Friday. What do you think is the leading factor of this drastic change in methanol futures?
The direct cause of this round of methanol increase is the change of methanol pricing system caused by the continuous depreciation of RMB. The fundamental reason is the tight balance between supply and demand, low inventory, and less than expected accumulation of methanol, which leads to a certain degree of congestion under the strong capital atmosphere. In terms of exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate rose all the way from the lowest of 6.235 at the end of March this year, and once exceeded 6.9 on August 3, with the depreciation rate exceeding 10%. Especially after mid-June, as the exchange rate broke through 6.4 and accelerated, the market mentality of chemicals with high import dependence changed, and the methanol valuation system changed. The same CFR China main port price is 400 US dollars/ton, and the duty-paid import price in mid-June is 3,200 yuan/ton, but it has risen to 3,400 yuan/ton in early August, and the import cost is raised by 200 yuan/ton as a whole. Under the current situation of low methanol inventory and tight supply and demand, imported methanol reflects the marginal quantity of methanol supply, so the higher import cost pushes up the expected valuation of methanol.
What is the overall supply and demand situation of methanol this year? Although it is in the off-season, the downstream demand is unexpectedly strong. What caused this situation?
On the supply side, after the overhaul of domestic and foreign devices from March to May, methanol was limited by environmental protection in Guanzhong and Shandong in early July, and it has been difficult for domestic supply to increase significantly. In addition, in recent years, the demand for methanol in Southeast Asia, India and other places has increased rapidly, and the total amount of methanol imports in China has decreased year by year since 20 16. 20 18 CFR China's position in the Asian methanol market is relatively low, so apart from long-term arrival, few non-contract goods come to China for trade. In July, the arbitrage window between China and Southeast Asia began to open, further accelerating the outflow of methanol.
On the demand side, although it is a traditional off-season, the downstream consumption of methanol in July increased compared with that in June: on the one hand, East China olefin plants such as Fude and Xingxing were overhauled in June and restarted in early July, which delayed the demand; On the other hand, the traditional downstream profit preference of methanol such as acetic acid and formaldehyde is constantly in demand, and the olefin profit also begins to widen after mid-July. The current downstream profit also forms a strong support for the downstream operating rate.
In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of methanol in coastal areas is low this year. Although it accumulated in June and July, the speed was less than expected, and the overall level still did not exceed 600,000 tons. It can be seen that in the case of reduced methanol supply, demand remains rigid, inventory is low and accumulation is slow, and supply and demand maintain a tight balance.
In the third quarter, what other factors in the methanol market deserve our attention from supply and demand or macro aspects?
In the third quarter, there are still methanol plants planned to be overhauled in Southeast Asia (654.38+065+654.38+020) and South America (654.38+000+80) may be restarted at the end of the third quarter, and it is expected to come to China in the fourth quarter, so it is still difficult to make a big improvement in imports. In addition, the environmental maintenance equipment in the Mainland will be gradually restored, but Hong Sheng, Jiangsu Province will also be restarted in late August, and the tight balance between supply and demand will continue with a high probability.
Macroscopically, the United States has imposed sanctions on Iraq with victory, and how Iran will respond and whether it will overreact has become the focus of global attention, which is also an untimely bomb in the energy market this year. The degree to which China's economic policy has turned loose and whether the depreciation of RMB exchange rate will continue are also important reference factors for the trend of domestic commodity prices.
How long can this growth last? What risks are hidden in the current skyrocketing methanol market?
At present, the contract positions of MA809 are still above 500,000 lots, that is, the long positions are above 250,000 lots (2.5 million tons), and the number of registered effective warehouse receipts is zero, while the coastal inventory is around 550,000 tons, of which the negotiable inventory is less than 6.5438+0.6 million tons. Judging from the position/inventory, it does meet the conditions of crowding positions. On August 3rd, the duty-paid import price was 3400 yuan/ton, the spot price in East China was 3250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of MA809 was 3 1, 2 1 yuan/ton. Statically, the spot should reach the import price level, and the futures should reach the spot level, that is, 3400 yuan/ton is the first target price; Dynamically, the formation of the upward trend will prompt the current price to continue to rise, that is, the final price may exceed 3400 yuan/ton.
Although the capital side controls the current market initiative, risks still exist. It mainly includes: first, the exchange conducts window guidance and intervenes in the market through interviews, guarantees, restrictions on positions, price increases and penalties; Second, the unexpected increase in supply or the unexpected decline in demand can eventually form a large number of effective warehouse receipts; Third, if the main bulls get warehouse receipts, the long and short roles may change at an appropriate price, changing the long and short power contrast; Fourth, changes have taken place at the macro level, such as a sharp drop in crude oil and a sharp drop in exchange rate control. Generally speaking, if the extrusion fails, it goes without saying that the disk will fall back after it rises; Even if the extrusion is successful, the price will fall back after delivery.
How to treat the monthly difference of methanol? Can you analyze the following market for us? What arbitrage opportunities can we share with investors in this volatile disk?
The monthly difference logic of methanol has changed. Previously, due to the seasonal weakness of methanol 09 contract compared with methanol 0 1 contract, the monthly difference of methanol in September was empty 1 month. However, with the appearance of crowded market in 2009, it is obviously inappropriate to continue to do reverse hedging, because the crowded market in recent months is stronger than that in the distant months, which is logically contradictory to reverse hedging. In fact, due to optimistic about the methanol peak season in the fourth quarter, some legal persons with receiving ability began to actively open positions when the spread of 9 1 was around-100. If the spread widened further, they would increase their positions. If the spread narrows in the later period, you can choose to take profits directly on futures; If the price difference fails to narrow in the later period, we will choose delivery on September 9, and turn the price difference into basis holding, so as to expand the basis difference and make a profit in the fourth quarter. On the 0 1 contract, if the basis of methanol in East China is lower than -200, you can get a risk-free buying opportunity. In addition, PP-MA arbitrage can try to profit from rallies and contractions.
Finally, investors need to be reminded that behind every big ups and downs, in addition to the factors of industrial fundamentals, there are also many chasing ups and downs driven by the market atmosphere. As the saying goes, "Climbing higher will be dangerous", and there are also various variables behind the skyrocketing methanol. For example, the possible off-season dislocation, the external price and import situation in the fourth quarter, the resumption of production and logistics in inland areas can all affect the future methanol market price. Insiders suggest that investors rationally participate in the futures market, recognize the nature of trading, and don't chase after the ups and downs. Please fasten your seat belt when the price takes off.