Zhou Wealth Management: The Bollinger Band is very effective in the trend market and can give a clear opening and closing point, but it seems to be less effective in the shock?
John Bollinger: You can't use the same method in a volatile market and a trend market. In a trend market, your indicator will tell you to buy at a low level and sell at a high level. In a volatile market, you should sell on the upper rail and buy on the lower rail. If you use the wrong method in the market, you will lose money.
Financial Weekly: In China, many traders prefer the trend market to the volatile market. Which do you prefer, shock or trend?
John Bollinger: It's all the same. Volatile markets are interesting because you trade a lot in volatile markets, but in trend markets, you earn more money.
Financial Weekly: Is there any way to distinguish between volatile market and trend market?
John bollinger: A German trader invented the cross-filtering method, which can effectively distinguish the shock market from the trend market. In addition, ADX indicators (editor's note: judging consolidation, shocks and unilateral trends) are also very good at distinguishing shocks from trends.
Financial Weekly: Do you have a goal to earn money? How much do you want to earn?
John Bollinger: I do have a goal. I hope to make a profit of 20% every year.
Adjust parameters according to market changes
Financial Weekly: Many domestic traders I contact will constantly adjust the parameters of their trading systems. Will you adjust the parameters of your system during the transaction?
John Bollinger: Almost no adjustment. Once I decide what parameters to use in an application field, I won't change it unless the market changes.
Let me give you an example. On the Bollinger Band, when I first used the 10 moving average, the parameter I set was 1.5, and now the parameter I use is 1.9. The reason for the adjustment is the emergence of stock index futures and a large number of derivatives in the American market, which attracted a lot of funds and changed the market liquidity, so I changed the parameters.
Financial Weekly: What do you think is the difference between the operation of small funds and large funds?
John Bollinger: I don't think the operation has anything to do with the amount of money.
Financial Weekly: Will a large amount of funds affect the market and invalidate the technical indicators?
John Bollinger: This question is the same as mentioned above. Everyone uses bollinger bands in different ways, so it is impossible for a lot of money to affect the market.
Financial Weekly: Many trading systems are effective now, but they may collapse or fail at some time. How long do you think the bollinger Band can work effectively?
John Bulinger: Bollinger Band has been running for 30 years, and I think it may run for another 30 years or even 65,438+000 years in the future. This is like asking me how long the hammer can work, and the hammer can be used because it is just a tool.
Financial Weekly: Besides the Bollinger Band, do you use other technical indicators in your trading?
John Bollinger: Of course.
Financial Weekly: Did you invent all other technical indicators?
John Bollinger: Some of them were invented by me and others. I have been studying other people's technical methods and learning their experience for a hundred years.
Financial Weekly: Are there any traders in this market that you particularly like or admire?
John Bollinger: I like many traders, but I don't have a favorite.
The bollinger band also has blind spots.
Brin channel line is a technical index that the author uses more in the actual stock market and gains more experience. The author thinks that the change of bell mouth can be observed after the Brin channel line is superimposed on the K-line chart, which is more intuitive and helpful for investors to judge the trend of market operation.
The author has used bollinger bands for a long time and has some experience in using them. I want to communicate with readers here.
The moving range of the stock price channel formed by the upper, middle and lower tracks in BOLL index is uncertain, and the upper and lower limits of the channel change with the fluctuation of stock price. Under normal circumstances, the stock price should always run in the stock price channel. If the stock price runs out of the stock price channel, it means that the market is in an extreme state.
Investors all hope that when buying stocks, they will buy stocks that are more likely to rise than to fall.
There are two principles for identifying powerful stocks:
First, the upper rail, middle rail and lower rail of the Bollinger Band are all inclined upwards. The author calls it "three-line tilt", which shows that the stock price is in a short-term rising channel;
Second, the stock price is between the upper rail and the middle rail. It is best to break through the middle track on the first day, and the stock price can stand on the middle track, indicating that the stock has changed from a weak state to a strong state. This is similar to some software on the market that uses red areas and blue areas to tell investors whether to hold shares or money.
In my opinion, the "three-line tilt" between the upper rail and the middle rail and the stock price are signals that you should hold shares or buy more. On the contrary, it should be sold or held mainly in the form of money.
Once you buy a "third-line rooster" stock with a stock price in the middle track, as long as the stock price no longer falls below the middle track, you will always hold it; Once the stock price falls below the middle track and cannot recover the middle track in three trading days, it will be resolutely sold, even if it loses money.
In the BOLL indicator, the upper and lower tracks of the stock price channel are the highest and lowest prices that show the safe operation of the stock price. The upper rail, middle rail and lower rail can all support the operation of the stock price, and the upper rail and middle rail sometimes put pressure on the operation of the stock price.
I don't buy stocks between the middle track and the lower track at all, so I pay more attention to the support of the middle track and the pressure of the upper track on the stock price.
When the stock price slowly approaches the upper rail from the middle rail of the Bollinger Band, it shows that the strong characteristics of the stock price have been established, and the stock price may rise sharply in the short term, and it should be mainly based on holding shares to rise or increasing holdings in the short term.
Generally speaking, the author prefers to operate stocks that suddenly rise based on the principle of band acceleration, and its Brin bandwidth is too large, and the stock price rushes out of the upper rail of the Brin band. He will choose to look for a stage high point and choose to sell it within 2-3 days after the breakthrough. The range of measured high points is generally 1.05- 1.07 times of the predicted price of the upper rail of the bollinger Band.
Although the bollinger band is a pressure support indicator, it also has the characteristics of overbought and oversold. However, for the dark horse that has just started after the continuous contraction of Bollinger Band, it often happens that the stock price can continue to run above the upper rail after derailment, and it needs to cooperate with other technical indicators to make up for its blind spot.
People familiar with trading software should be familiar with bollinger bands. The Bollinger Band is named after john bollinger, the founder of this indicator.
Bollinger invented Bollinger in 1970s. The book Bollinger was published by mcgraw-hill companies in 200 1 and translated into seven languages.
John bollinger is the president and founder of bullinger Investment Management Company and one of the most important securities analysts in the United States.
John Bollinger is not like those eloquent speakers, but like a university professor in the classroom in a university; His speech enumerated a large number of mathematical formulas; In the interview, he will not use flowery language, but more examples. When asked about the advice to traders, bullinger thinks that he can't tell traders what to do, so he must read books.
This is the impression of Financial Weekly reporter on John Blinger at the 20 1 1 money war "round" meeting on April 3. At the meeting, john bollinger gave a speech on the application of bollinger. During the meeting, a reporter from Financial Weekly interviewed John Bollinger.
In fact, it is not the first time that John Bulinger has told you about the application of bollinger bands in Shanghai. Last year, at the invitation of CUHK Futures, Bullinger also gave a lecture on the application of bollinger bands in Hangzhou. At the meeting on April 2nd, the reporter met Ding Hongbo who was listening to bullinger's speech. He also attended bullinger's lecture last year. He told reporters: "Although the content is similar, every time I listen to it, I have different feelings."
Bullinger said in his speech that the Bollinger Band was actually developed with a 20-day moving average. At that time, many traders liked to calculate the volatility. At that time, personal computers just came out. At that time, Bullinger assembled a computer and wrote the formula of volatility with Excel. In the process of writing the formula, Bullinger had a sudden inspiration and combined the moving average with the volatility, taking the moving average as the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the upper and lower tracks were the calculation results of the volatility of the middle track plus two variances.
Bullinger said that many people like to use moving averages and other moving averages instead of the middle rail of the bollinger Band to calculate the bollinger Band. In this case, it is best to adjust the calculation formula of the upper and lower rails, perhaps without adding two variances.
Regarding the China stock market, Bullinger said that because of the limited participation of foreign capital, he has not done any in-depth research, but he believes that the stock market will always be a barometer of the economy. Although China's economic growth may slow down in the future, it is still ahead of other countries in the world, so he is still optimistic about the China stock market, especially the Hongkong stock market. As for American real estate, Bullinger thinks American real estate is too cheap now.
Still use bollinger bands
Financial Weekly: After you wrote the book "Bollinger Bands", do you still use Bollinger Bands in your own transactions?
John Bulinger: I wrote the book Bollinger in 2000. Of course, I'm also using the bollinger band method.
Financial Weekly: In john murphy's book Technical Analysis of Futures, there is a view that a technical indicator will become more and more invalid after it is widely used. Did you consider this question when writing the book "Bollinger Bands"?
John Bulinger: If Bollinger tells us to buy at points A, B and C and sell at points E, F and D, and everyone is doing it, Bollinger will really fail, but it is not the case. I want to emphasize that the bollinger band is just a tool. Everyone uses this tool in different ways, and the effect of using this tool is also different. If everyone uses the Bollinger Band and all the selling points and buying points are the same, it will be invalid, but in fact, everyone uses different methods. Different markets, different varieties, different stocks and different trading channels have different effects. Some people use it for short-term, some for long-term, some for futures, and some for stocks.
Bollinger bands are just tools. We need to make different changes in different markets and different periods. More importantly, we need to make adjustments according to different markets.
Financial Weekly: There is also a theory in the market that the simpler the technical indicators, the better, and it is best to have one line, while your Bollinger Band has three lines. Is it too cumbersome?
John bollinger: I use three lines, namely the moving average, the upper rail and the lower rail. The upper rail and the lower rail are calculated by adding two variances on the basis of the average line, but in practice, many people use it more, and some even exceed five lines. They are three lines above the average and three lines below the average. I don't use many lines. (Side note: bullinger drew a market curve and five channel lines on the draft paper. )
A pure businessman
Financial Weekly: Do you think the Bollinger Band is your most perfect work?
John Bollinger: I have only written one book, so it must be my best work. Writing a book is a very tiring thing. It takes at least one year to write a book. When I finished writing Bollinger Bands, I said, I will never write books again, but now I have done a lot of new work and attempts. Maybe I will write another book next year to record my 65,438+00 years of research and work experience.
Financial Weekly: Do you consider yourself a trader or an analyst?
John Bollinger: I am a pure trader, not an analyst. Many traders like john murphy, but john murphy is an analyst. He is not a trader.
Financial Weekly: But many domestic traders admire john murphy and his technical analysis of futures.
John Bollinger: It's not that traders or analysts are better. Mainly because everyone's major and specialty are different. Some people like trading, some people like analysis, and some people have both. For example, there is a very famous master in America. A long time ago, the master had a theory that an analyst should not trade at all, because he thought that trading would affect his analysis and judgment. However, my view is just the opposite. I think to be an analyst, you must do the actual transaction first, then do the analysis after being a good trader, and improve your analytical judgment ability with practical experience.
Financial Weekly: Your operation is mainly based on technical indicators, so will you refer to some fundamental information in the transaction?
John bollinger: If we go back to 1930, then the United States is in a very bad economic period. The government and people are trying to know what will happen in the future, and market participants are also trying to tell people what the future economy will be like, not what it is now. At this time, the easiest thing to predict is the stock price, which is regarded as a barometer of the economy.
In my opinion, technical indicators can better reflect the economic situation, rather than the economic situation guiding the market to tell the market what will happen in the future.
Financial Weekly: Your bollinger Band can give a clear signal of buying and selling, but it doesn't tell us how to control the amount of funds. Want to know how to control the funds in the transaction?
John Bollinger: I don't know how to answer this question. You need to refer to everyone's own transaction records and compare them with history. Everyone needs to know how many transactions have made money in the past, how many transactions have lost money, and the average loss.