After July 1, 202 16, the main futures prices of iron ore have been falling, and the range is very large. The highest is 1 132.5 yuan/ton, and once it fell to 76 1 yuan/ton. It rebounded slightly on August 20. The main iron ore futures closed at 777.5 yuan per ton, but still failed to reach the 800 yuan mark, falling by more than 30% in one month. In recent years, the trading stocks of iron ore in 45 ports across the country have reached a new high. Behind the accumulation of inventory is the decline of the market's willingness to buy iron ore spot. National Port Trading Volume As of last week, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore in major ports in China was 790,000 tons, down 29.8% from the previous month. Iron ore traders said that with the rapid decline in the prices of major iron ore futures contracts, the spot port prices also showed a sharp correction, and his daily trading volume plummeted nearly 80% recently.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the output of pig iron and crude steel in the first half of this year was 456.38 million tons and 563.33 million tons, respectively, up by 4.0% and 654.38+065.438+0.8% year-on-year. The price of iron ore also soared from 557.5 yuan/ton in April 2020 1 to 779.5 yuan/ton in May 1 337 yuan/ton, with an increase of 139.82%. Iron ore futures have always been the focus of the whole futures market, so the price of iron ore futures has fallen sharply recently. How should we look at this problem? In fact, the relationship between iron ore and steel is like bread and flour. Iron ore can be understood as flour, and the final product steel can be understood as bread.

From the perspective of the whole market, the current rapid decline in iron ore prices is actually a very normal phenomenon, and the ultimate reason should be decided by both the supply and demand sides. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, since the first half of this year, with the rapid recovery of China's economy, China has actually obtained a very good market dividend, and such rapid demand growth will inevitably lead to a rapid rise in iron ore prices. With the introduction of national control policies, steel production has actually entered a deeper adjustment. In the deep adjustment, the inevitable result is that the demand for iron ore in iron and steel enterprises begins to decline rapidly, so the market supply remains relatively unchanged. In the case of sluggish market demand, iron ore prices have declined to some extent. In fact, this is also logical.

Judging from the long-term market development, with the transformation and adjustment of the national steel industry for a long time to come, the demand for iron ore may also change to some extent, but from the current point of view, the recent sharp decline in demand is actually a normal phenomenon. Thirdly, we can also think that at present, the era of steel price has begun to end, and there has been an obvious downward trend between upstream iron ore and downstream steel, and there is no sign of further price increase, so this incident still has a certain positive effect.