The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is developing in an unpredictable direction!
SWIFT is the safest, most convenient and most important cross-border payment system in the world. Cross-border transfers between banks in different countries need to be made through SWIFT. Almost all important financial institutions in the world are members of the system, including nearly 300 Russian banks.
Removing Russia from the SWIFT system, known as the "financial nuclear bomb" thrown at Russia, will directly make all its banks lose the ability to communicate with international finance, which is equivalent to becoming an island, and economic activities with foreign countries will stagnate.
Russia is a big energy exporter, and the export income of oil and natural gas accounts for more than 40% of the country's total fiscal revenue. If it is completely cut off, its economy is likely to deteriorate rapidly.
Not only the economic activities of the country are affected, but also the daily income of ordinary people will be indirectly affected, and even serious inflation will be brought about.
In this regard, Russia said that the strategic deterrent force will enter a state of special readiness.
What does this mean? I think everyone should know!
US President Biden directly responded that there are two choices: "The first is to launch the Third World War and go to war directly with Russia; Or let this country that seriously violates international law pay the price it deserves. "
As the biggest successor of Soviet military power, Russia still has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with 6,255 active and inactive nuclear warheads, far exceeding the 5,550 of the United States.
Information warfare is also a part of war. As a smokescreen to break the enemy's psychological defense, there are true and false, and there are false and false. And we need to have our own judgment and not be biased by some people.
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Back to this "financial nuclear bomb". The control of SWIFT payment system in the United States is closely related to the position of the dollar in the global monetary system.
Of course, SWIFT is also becoming a political tool. In the past, it imposed sanctions on financial institutions such as North Korea, Iraq, Iran and Libya. It has indeed achieved a precise strike by western countries against countries that want good sanctions. But it also makes countries fear that they will become more attached to the United States and fear that they will become the target of sanctions one day.
Therefore, the trend of global dollarization and digital currency is on the rise.
The Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Swedish Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Bank for International Settlements jointly formed a group to develop encrypted digital currency, aiming at dollarization in some commodity trading or financial settlement fields.
Germany, Switzerland, France and Britain have negotiated with Iran to develop digital currency's trading system.
Sweden will also use digital cryptocurrency anchored in its own currency to support financial settlement and support blockchain dollarization technology.
Moreover, many European countries, including Germany, France, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands and so on, are fully prepared to agree to the monetary gold standard (to prevent the sudden collapse of the dollar system) or the digital euro supported by gold.
In order to complete dollarization and get rid of dollar hegemony. China has also established its own settlement system: RMB Cross-border Payment System (CIPS).
20151010.8, China 19 commercial banks, 38 domestic banks and 138 overseas banks successfully launched CIPS system in Asia, Europe, Oceania and Africa.
By the end of 2022, there were 65,438+0,280 participants in CIPS system, including 75 direct participants and 65,438+0,205 indirect participants, covering 65,438+0,003 countries and regions around the world.
How important CIPS is can be seen from the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia through SWIFT.
As a big country, China's financial industry and banking industry are no longer completely controlled by the United States in the economic globalization, and the frontier of China's geo-economy has been pushed to every corner of the world. When CIPS was put into operation, it was no less than the "two bombs and one satellite" developed by China in those years, belonging to the atomic bomb in the financial field.
Therefore, we see that in the joint sanctions between the United States and Europe, only some banks are included, not all banks. On the one hand, there is room for policy, on the other hand, we don't want to "cheap" China.
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With the warming of the geopolitical situation, the risk aversion of funds continues to rise!
Last Friday, US stocks experienced a super reversal, from a sharp drop to a rise of 2.5%, reaching more than 800 spreads, which is very good. After the market opened on Monday, the global market fluctuated sharply again, and the US stock index futures suddenly fell by 3%-erasing all the gains over the weekend. Although the decline has narrowed since then, Nasdaq futures still fell more than 2%.
Compared with the huge shock of US stocks, the performance of A shares is more stable, and there is no big panic in the market.
The RMB exchange rate is in full swing, becoming the most powerful currency in the world's major economies, and is becoming a global staged safe-haven asset.
After entering 2022, the RMB exchange rate basically kept fluctuating in the range of 6.3 to 6.4, but recently it has gone out of a wave of obvious gains.
On 24th, the onshore spot exchange rate of RMB against USD was 6.3209, and the offshore spot exchange rate of RMB against USD was 6.3 199. On that day, the highest values of the two reached 6.3095 and 6.30 16, respectively, both hitting new highs in recent four years since April of 20 18.
With the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the fluctuation of the international foreign exchange market has increased, and RMB assets are both liquid, safe and profitable, and safe-haven funds have poured into China.
Since the second half of last year, under the influence of the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates, the domestic foreign exchange market has stepped out of a wave of independent markets in which the US dollar has strengthened and the RMB has strengthened. Even under the background that domestic RRR cuts interest rates and RRR several times, and the spread between China and the United States is narrowing, it is rare to maintain a sustained appreciation of the US dollar. The strength of RMB against the market exceeded market expectations.
Under the background that the US dollar is so strong and China's monetary authorities are still in marginal loose currency, the RMB is stronger and harder than the US dollar, which has won space and time for China to continue monetary easing.
In addition to a safer geopolitical environment, an important reason for foreign investors to increase their positions in China is that China's economy will bottom out earlier and faster than the United States under the loose stimulus, and asset prices will rise accordingly.
Of course, not only is it strong against the US dollar, but the trend of the RMB against the Euro is even more "fierce".
Especially in recent days, the conflict broke out, the appreciation of RMB against the euro accelerated, capital was rapidly withdrawing from the European market, and China government bonds were quickly bought in large quantities to avoid risks, which inevitably led to the increase of RMB demand and exchange rate in the offshore market.
Behind the strong performance of RMB is the leading role of economic fundamentals and the embodiment of strength.
In 20021year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 8. 1% compared with the previous year, with an average growth of 5. 1% in two years, ranking among the leading economies in the world; The economic scale broke through 1 10 trillion yuan, reaching 1 14.4 trillion yuan; According to the annual average exchange rate, it will reach 17.7 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than 18% of the world economy and contributing about 25% to the world economic growth.
The per capita GDP exceeded 80,000 yuan, exceeding the world average, and the per capita disposable income reached 35 1.28 yuan.
Grain production has achieved another bumper harvest. In 20021year, the total grain output was1365.7 billion Jin, an increase of 26.7 billion Jin over the previous year, with an increase of 2.0%, reaching a new record high.
In 2002 1 year, the actual amount of foreign direct investment in China was 1. 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9% over the previous year, and the first breakthrough was1trillion yuan.
During the period of 20 15 USD interest rate increase, RMB depreciated sharply against USD, and capital flowed out. In less than two years, foreign exchange reserves have decreased by nearly 1 trillion dollars. With the same tactics and routines, the attraction of the dollar is not as good as before. On the contrary, more overseas funds began to flow into China to avoid risks.
Because the best way to preserve and increase value is to invest in China, and the best way to control risks is to invest back in China.
As investment guru Munger said, "China is a modern country. It has such a huge population and has achieved such great modernization in the past 30 years. We have invested some money in China on the grounds that in terms of enterprise strength and securities prices, we can get more value in China than in the United States, and every dollar invested in China is more advantageous. "
Although the current appreciation of RMB represents the recognition of China by capital in some aspects, it is also beneficial to the development of some industries in China; At the same time, the sharp appreciation of RMB will also have an impact on China's export enterprises.
At present, the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is only in the initial stage of reducing the purchase of bonds, and there are still major actions such as raising interest rates and shrinking the table. Therefore, it is impossible for the RMB to continue to appreciate or maintain a high level. With the advance of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy, it is bound to produce new variables on the trend of RMB exchange rate.
We need to guard against the sharp depreciation behind the sharp appreciation, and keeping the RMB exchange rate relatively stable is the king of our policy.