News of the relaxation of regional policies in the real estate market continues to spread, and expectations for improvement on the real estate sales side are rising. However, the differences in the secondary market have increased under the influence of multiple factors.
On April 11, it was reported that Suzhou City’s second-hand housing sales restriction policy had been relaxed, and the social security payment requirements for non-local house buyers had been relaxed. The reporter learned from the local real estate trading center and intermediaries that no official document has been released on the relevant adjustments. Especially for the home purchase policy for non-local registered residents, the local new home trading center made it clear that there have been no changes.
Some people in the real estate industry told reporters that the recent epidemic has had a certain impact on Suzhou transactions and may stimulate policy optimization to a certain extent. According to incomplete statistics, more than 60 cities have adjusted their local property market policies since the beginning of this year, from lowering interest rates and down payment ratios to gradually liberalizing purchase and sale restrictions. Transaction expectations are optimistic, and real estate stocks are also picking up significantly in the secondary market.
However, on Monday, real estate stocks, which had continued to rise for more than half a month, diverged and once fell to the limit in early trading. On the news, expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have increased, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has inverted again after more than 10 years, and domestic monetary policy expectations are divergent. The latest credit data shows that residents' medium- and long-term credit, which represents housing mortgages, has picked up significantly, and institutions are generally optimistic about real estate sales and stock prices.
Restrictions on the sale of second-hand houses in Suzhou may be relaxed
“The epidemic has had a huge impact on the property market in Suzhou. It is very inconvenient to view houses. The transactions have been OK before,” said the sales restrictions on second-hand houses. A local real estate agent in Suzhou said that the news of policy liberalization may be related to the recent local epidemic that has intensified the downturn in transactions. "Otherwise, it might not have been so fast."
On April 11, there was news It is said that Suzhou has relaxed the sales restriction on second-hand houses, and the sales restriction period has been adjusted from 5 years to 3 years. The 3-year sales restriction on new houses will remain unchanged and will be implemented from that day. The reporter called the local real estate market and transaction management center (hereinafter referred to as the "transaction center"). Relevant staff stated that currently commercial houses (new houses) have not received any change notifications, and the phone number responsible for second-hand house transactions has been "on call" as of press time. However, according to the aforementioned intermediary, the company has received news of the relaxation of restrictions on the sale of second-hand houses and is expected to issue an official document in the near future.
In addition, there are reports that Suzhou Trading Center personnel revealed that the purchase restriction policy will also be adjusted starting from April 11, that is, non-household registered residents apply to purchase within the limits of Suzhou City, Kunshan City, and Taicang City. For the first home, the social security period requirement is adjusted from the original three years to pay for two consecutive years to a cumulative two years. In this regard, local intermediaries said that they have "not heard of it yet", but if the supply and demand of housing are loosened, Suzhou's property market is expected to rebound significantly after the epidemic.
The reporter inquired about the "Work Opinions on Further Improving the Stable and Healthy Development of the City's Real Estate Market" issued by Suzhou City in July 2019, which targeted commercial housing newly obtained pre-(sales) licenses within the urban area of ??Suzhou. Projects (including projects that have obtained pre-sale permits but have not yet started online signing) and second-hand housing can be transferred by buyers after 3 years and 5 years respectively from the date of obtaining the real estate certificate; households that are not registered residents in Suzhou City , Kunshan City and Taicang City, when applying to purchase the first house, you should provide proof of personal income tax payment or social insurance (urban social insurance) payment within Suzhou City for 2 consecutive years or more within the 3 years before the date of purchase. prove.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, under the background of continuous supervision and correction of financing policies, various places have implemented "one city, one policy". According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, in the first quarter of this year alone, more than 60 cities have adjusted their property market policies. . After lowering mortgage interest rates, reducing down payment ratios, and increasing provident fund loan limits, some cities have gradually relaxed sales restrictions, purchase restrictions, and loan restrictions. Before Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Qinhuangdao, Quzhou, Qingdao Jimo, etc. Relax the "five limits" policy.
However, behind the continuous deepening of city-specific policies in various regions, the property market transactions in March continued to decline year-on-year. In particular, the month-on-month performance in third- and fourth-tier cities was still not optimistic, and the lack of confidence among home buyers led to greater pressure to sell. The destocking cycle in 66 third- and fourth-tier cities monitored by CRIC has reached 23.25 months in February, with a year-on-year increase of more than 80%. According to the latest statistics from Southwest Securities, among the 32 cities it tracks across the country, the cumulative transaction area of ??commercial housing in April (as of the 8th) continued to decrease by 49.9% year-on-year and 19.4% month-on-month. Institutions generally expect that more cities will follow suit in the future, and the probability is greater in third- and fourth-tier cities where decomposition pressure and housing price fluctuations are greater.
Policy transmission is expected to be gradually implemented
Spurred by good news from many places, the real estate sector has continued to rise in the secondary market since mid- to late March. As of last Friday, the sector as a whole had risen by more than 30% significantly outperformed the market, and the Shanghai Stock Index rose 6.13% during the same period. Previously, the industry had strong expectations for operating funds to support real estate companies out of trouble.
However, in the early trading on April 11, real estate stocks failed to continue their upward trend and diverged, and many stocks staged a trend of falling by the limit. On the same day, as expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased, the 10-year treasury bond yields of China and the United States inverted for the first time since 2010. Some analysts pointed out that the inversion of interest rates between China and the United States may be due to the economic fundamentals and inflation of the two countries after the epidemic. Expect changes. Amid concerns about capital outflows and exchange rate risks, the market is divided on whether my country's monetary easing policy can continue.
However, domestic institutions are generally optimistic about the future trend of real estate stocks. First of all, in terms of monetary policy, the State Council executive meeting on April 6 once again emphasized the soundness of monetary policy, and also mentioned improving financial services for new citizens and optimizing financial services for affordable housing. Chen Li, a real estate analyst at Zhongtai Securities, believes that in the context of continued sales decline, the National Standing Committee has released positive signals, which will help meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers. It is expected that the 5-year LPR (loan market quotation rate) on the monetary side will further increase. Room for downward adjustment.
According to the latest social financing and credit data released by the central bank on April 11, bank credit willingness generally increased in the first quarter, and the scale of new RMB loans and social financing exceeded market expectations, which reflected the mid- to long-term demand for mortgages by residents. Loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Although the year-on-year increase in March continued to decrease by 250.4 billion yuan, it has rebounded from the rare decline in medium- and long-term loans to residents in February and returned to positive growth.
Secondly, local governments have implemented city-specific policies to boost real estate credit and sales. According to previous institutional analysis, the middle of the year will be an important turning point. A recent research report from CITIC Securities also pointed out that the bottom of real estate policy, sales and investment always appear in sequence. The policy bottom in the fourth quarter of last year has been clear. Since March, the benefits of city-specific policies have accelerated. The growth rate of commercial housing sales in the second quarter may be It will bottom out and rebound, but we still have to wait for the investment bottom. As long as the downward pressure on the economy is not substantially alleviated, or real estate sales are not confirmed to have bottomed out, real estate loosening policies may continue to be introduced, and real estate stocks will still have room to rise.
In the long run, Guotai Junan Real Estate Analyst Xie Haoyu’s team believes that considering the tightening of credit for real estate companies and the suppression of land capitalization, coupled with the fact that the urbanization rate of the population has reached a high level, the only way to increase the credit of real estate companies in the future is to Only by supporting and promoting the development of the industrial chain can residents' income and income expectations rise, otherwise credit expansion may be lower than expected. When the economy is weak and liquidity continues to be loose, there may be an asset shortage.