"Watching the news" can also make money?
One day, fund manager A saw a financial news on his way to work early in the morning. It is said that "the country has newly announced a favorable policy to accelerate urbanization", so he immediately increased the stock of infrastructure concept on the original basis, and at the same time informed traders to sell the urban construction bonds they held in time to make a profit.
The next day, fund manager A also heard the news that the Fed raised interest rates with high probability. Fund manager A expected to drive the dollar to rise, so he increased his holdings of dollars and shorted gold futures.
From this point of view, fund manager A operates a macro hedge fund, and the infrastructure stocks, urban construction bonds, US dollar foreign exchange and gold futures mentioned in it are all major asset allocations of macro hedge funds.
The so-called "macro" refers to the use of the basic logic of macroeconomic cycles or events to find investment opportunities for financial product price imbalances and mismatches; And "hedging" is to "offset" risks through different investment targets in investment. We usually hear about the stock market, bond market, commodities and precious metals. , all belong to the asset allocation range of "offsetting" risks.
However, there are many macro hedging methods, such as selling stocks, shorting stock indexes, and precious metal arbitrage. And it is often necessary to hedge and arbitrage risks across trading varieties, markets, regions and even countries. Therefore, the threshold for fund managers and practitioners is very high, and the profits obtained are of course quite attractive.
Characteristics of Macro Hedge Funds
Let's talk about the macro aspect first. Macro hedge funds are based on macroeconomic cycle judgment, and the high-end ones use top-down analysis methods to predict their impact on the prices of large-scale assets, and use quantitative and qualitative analysis methods to select large-scale assets to build a portfolio. When I say grounded gas, I mean investing by judging news information, economic events, cycles and trends.
Secondly, based on large-scale asset allocation, macro hedge funds have strong financial capacity. If you want to invest in stocks and speculate in gold, futures, bonds and foreign exchange through funds, you can find macro hedge funds. It is precisely because of this that the more products are configured, the more investors of all kinds, the larger the scale of funds, the more comprehensive the allocation of large-scale assets, and the more profit opportunities.
Let's talk about hedging first. To give a very simple example, the Fed's interest rate hike means that the market is optimistic about the future economic recovery of the United States and stimulates the dollar to rise, but it is bad for gold. What happens if macro hedge funds buy more dollars and gold?
For example, we make more dollars in advance, hold a lot of dollars, and then sell dollars when the interest rate hike is expected, so that we can exchange more RMB or other countries' local currencies, and the decline of gold will also make you lose money. Obviously, the profit of the dollar may make up for the loss of gold to some extent.
Another point about hedging is multi-strategy hedging. According to market trends and trading opportunities, it refers to flexible switching among stock bulls, bond investment, market neutrality, arbitrage, CTA, trend trading and other strategies to improve the probability of profit in economic recession and economic prosperity.
Expose the money-making secrets of internationally renowned fund managers.
They once dominated the capital situation during the 1998 financial crisis, hitting the Thai baht and the Hong Kong dollar. They took advantage of short positions to bring down a listed company in the stock market unnoticed. They used to be the most successful and eye-catching hedge funds. These funds are very famous. You must have heard of them, including George Soros's Quantum Fund and Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund.
George soros's Quantum Fund
George soros founded the first Eagle Fund in 1968, which is the predecessor of Quantum Fund. When there was a worldwide stock market crash in the late 1980s, he predicted that the decline in the Tokyo market would be greater than that in new york, which made him famous in the international financial circles. 1992, international financial speculators led by Soros set off a wave of selling Thai baht, which was considered to have directly triggered the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir called it "an evil beast lurking in the financial market".
Julian Robertson Tiger Fund
Julian Robertson founded the Tiger Fund on 1980 with 8 million dollars. Tiger Fund is one of the most famous macro hedge funds, which is as famous as Soros's Quantum Fund. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Julian accurately predicted that the German stock market would enter a bull market after the fall of the Berlin Wall, while shorting the Japanese stock market with the peak of the bubble. 1992, he foresaw the disaster of the global bond market. During the period of 1993, Tiger Fund (together with Quantum Fund), a hedge fund under Tiger Fund Management Company, successfully attacked the pound and lira, and gained huge profits in this operation. 1998, its total assets reached the peak of $23 billion, and it once became the largest hedge fund in the United States.
However, in the second half of 1998, Tiger Fund made mistakes in a series of investments and went downhill from then on. By March 3, 2000, Kloc-0, Robertson's Tiger Fund had dropped from the peak of $23 billion to $6.5 billion, and finally had to announce the termination of all the businesses of its six hedge funds.
Bruce Koffner's caxton Fund
Bruce Kaufner is the head of caxton, one of the most successful macro hedge funds in the world. Caxton Fund was established in Kefner, Harvard University on 1983. By observing the nature of macroeconomic cycles in multiple economic and political regions, the Fund captures the characteristics of each economic cycle and trades the asset classes in the region.
Thanks to his previous experience in the Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University, he has personal relationships with finance ministers of many countries, which enables him to more accurately grasp what monetary and fiscal policies countries will adopt.
Tudor Fund in Paul Tudor Jones
Jones started as a broker, starting with 1976, and earned more than1000000 dollars in commission in the second year. 1980, Jones went to new york cotton exchange to do spot trading, and earned tens of millions in a few years. Jones left the exchange on 1984 to set up Tudor Fund, with a start of10.5 million yuan. Four years later, every 1000 dollars invested in his fund has increased to more than 1700 dollars.
In the stock market crash of 1987, most investors suffered heavy losses, while Tudor Fund managed by Paul Tudor Jones gained 62% profits. By the end of 1992, the total amount of Tudor Fund had increased to $6 billion.
Jones' order is a new starting point every day. The money he earned yesterday is in the past. Today, he started from scratch, and his monthly loss is controlled within 10%. Due to proper risk control, Jones's fund can still make a profit even if it makes mistakes in analysis and judgment.
Macro-strategic private equity fund
Remember the eight strategies of private equity fund mentioned by Pai Paijun before? In fact, this is the same as the investment strategy of private equity funds. Therefore, since Public Offering of Fund can engage in macro hedging, so can private equity funds! Private placement network without subscription fee is a good channel to understand macro-strategy private placement funds.