Hello, investors and friends! Earlier, we learned about the basic varieties and important influencing factors of commodity futures, and how to analyze the landed commodities themselves. Industrial chain analysis is a widely used analysis method at present. The theme of our course today is to grasp the opportunity of coke market by analyzing the industrial chain of coke.
To understand the industrial chain of cola, we must first understand what cola is. Coke mainly includes metallurgical coke, gasification coke, calcium carbide coke, needle coke and shaped coke, of which 90% metallurgical coke is used for blast furnace ironmaking, so blast furnace coke is also called metallurgical coke. At present, metallurgical coke is the contract delivery variety of coke listed by Dashang, and our participation in coke futures contract trading is to participate in metallurgical coke trading. The whole coking process of coke is mainly through the following steps: firstly, the raw coal is dug out from the raw coal storage yard, washed, blended and crushed, then put into the coal storage tower, then carbonized in the carbonization chamber (coke oven), cooled by the quenching car, and finally screened to form coke. Crushed coke smaller than 5 mm is put into the sintering system as fuel, which is 10 mm ~25 mm coke, and then directly put into the blast furnace system for steelmaking and ironmaking.
Knowing how coke is produced, the upstream and downstream of coke are simply analyzed. Iron ore passes through a shaft furnace to form sinter, and coke is also formed through previous carbonization. Coke and sinter are put into the blast furnace at the same time to form molten iron under the action of high temperature and high pressure, and then a part of scrap steel is added into the converter and cooled to form billet. Finally, blanks are forged in different ways to generate different categories. Including outstanding talents (represented by threads), plates (represented by hot coils) and profiles. Excellent talents are mainly used in real estate and infrastructure industries, plates are mainly used in automobile and household appliances industries, and final profiles are mainly used in manufacturing enterprises. The whole industrial chain has close upstream and downstream conduction and high correlation. Among them, coking coal, iron ore, coke, thread and hot coil all belong to the varieties listed on the futures exchange, collectively referred to as black series.
Since there is a high correlation between upstream and downstream of coke, is there any unknown relationship between their prices? Of course, as an upstream variety of coke, the prices of coking coal and coking coal are generally in the same direction. Simply put, if the price of coking coal continues to rise, the price of coke will continue to rise.
As a supplementary product of coke, iron ore generally has the same price, but in a special case, the prices of iron ore and coke have an opposite relationship. This special situation is that the demand for downstream hot coils and threads is relatively stable, and the profit of intermediate links is relatively fixed. After the sharp rise of iron ore accounts for most of the profits in the intermediate link, coke has a high probability of obtaining the remaining small profits, thus suppressing the price.
Thread and coil are downstream of coke, and the price relationship between them is generally in the same direction. Generally speaking, the soaring futures price brought by the continuous upward demand for hot coils and threads in the market has also played a positive role in coke.
Understand the price relationship between upstream and downstream of coke and upstream and downstream commodities, and then focus on the supply and demand logic of coke itself.
The overall supply of coke is mainly composed of two parts, the first part is the domestic output of coke, and the second part is the import of coke. Our country has a special advantage, that is, coal reserves are relatively rich, and coke imports account for a relatively small proportion in the overall supply. The total consumption of coke is mainly divided into domestic consumption and export volume of coke. From the historical data, the domestic consumption of coke accounts for the vast majority of the total consumption of coke, while the export volume of coke accounts for a small proportion.
The total supply of coke minus the total consumption of coke is the inventory of coke. The inventory of coke is divided into the beginning and the end, that is, the inventory at the beginning and the inventory at the end of the year. The surplus after subtracting the total demand from the total supply in the whole year, plus the solid storage of coke at the beginning of the year, is the inventory of coke at the end of the year. The logic of supply and demand of coke is also to compare and analyze the current supply and demand situation around the overall supply, consumption and inventory of coke.
I just told you about the supply and demand side of coke and learned that the production and sales of coke mainly come from China. The following focuses on the main producing areas and sales areas of coke in China. The main domestic coke producing areas are Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Among them, Shanxi accounts for the largest proportion, followed by Hebei. In the process of analyzing the future coke output, we focused on the industrial policies and environmental protection measures in major producing areas. The main sales areas of coke are Hebei and Jiangsu, accounting for 36% of the total consumption of coke, and the proportion is quite high. The analysis of coke demand and consumption mainly focuses on the industrial policies of Hebei Province and Jiangsu Province.
Finally, focus on the port inventory of coke. Lianyungang, Tianjin and Rizhao are the main storage areas of coke. It can be clearly seen from the above figure that Rizhao Port has the highest inventory among the three major ports of coke at present. Therefore, the change of port inventory in Rizhao Port reflects the strength of short-term demand in the coke market to some extent. We should grasp the key point of contradiction, grasp the change of port inventory, and further analyze the supply and demand side of coke.
Generally speaking, the correlation between coke and its upstream and downstream is high, and the price relationship is mostly in the same direction. The logic of supply and demand of coke itself is obvious, and the change of supply and demand state can be clearly seen through the formula (total supply-total demand = inventory), which summarizes the upstream and downstream of the coke industry chain and understands the calculation method of the change of supply and demand state of coke. I believe that everyone has a deeper understanding of this variety of coke and mastered the analysis method of coke industry chain, and the analysis of other industries will be half done in the future.