Copper futures prices are mainly affected by the following eight factors: 1. According to the microeconomic principle, when the supply of a commodity exceeds the demand, its price falls, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease. This basic principle fully reflects the internal relationship between price and supply and demand. Under normal circumstances, the inventory change of futures exchanges trading copper futures is an important reference index to observe the change of copper supply and demand. The futures exchanges that have a great impact on the market are mainly Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), London Metal Exchange (LME) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX). 2. Macro-economic copper is an important industrial basic raw material, and its demand change is closely related to economic growth. When the economy grows, the demand for copper increases, thus pushing up the price of copper. When the economy is depressed, the demand for copper shrinks, which pushes the price of copper down. Under normal circumstances, the market will take the economic growth rate, industrial production growth rate (added value) and related monetary and industrial policies as the important analytical basis for the changes in the macroeconomic situation. 3. The trading direction of funds Although the fund industry has a very long history, it did not flourish until the 1990s. At the same time, the fund's participation in commodity futures trading has also greatly improved. Judging from the evolution of the copper market in the past ten years, funds have played a role in fueling many big markets. Funds are large and small, and their operation methods are quite different. Generally speaking, funds can be divided into two categories. One is Macrofund, such as arbitrage fund, which is large in scale, ranging from several billion dollars to tens of billions of dollars, and is mainly used for strategic long-term investment. The other is short-term fund, which is managed by CTA (commodity trading consultant). The scale is very small, usually around tens of millions of dollars. Short-term operation depends on technical analysis, so it is also called technical fund. Judging from the changes of COMEX's copper price and non-commercial positions (generally considered as speculative positions of funds), the rise and fall of copper price has a very good correlation with the positions of funds. Moreover, because the fund has a deeper understanding of macro fundamentals and a "foresight", understanding the trend of the fund is also the key to grasping the market. Judging from the trend of copper prices in recent years, especially since 2005, capital is a huge driving force for the rapid and sharp rise of copper prices. 4. The price fluctuation of oil and other related commodities will also have an impact on copper prices. Crude oil and copper are important industrial raw materials in the world, and their strong demand can best reflect the quality of the economy. Therefore, in the long run, the level of oil price and copper price has a good correlation with the speed of economic development. Because both crude oil and copper are closely related to macro-economy, there is a positive correlation between copper price and oil price to some extent. However, this is just the same trend. In the short term, the positive correlation between crude oil price and copper price is not very prominent. 5. The change of consumption development trend in copper industry is a direct factor affecting copper price, and the development of copper industry is an important factor affecting consumption. For example, after the 1990s, copper used in pipelines in developed countries increased greatly, and the construction industry became the largest consumer of copper, which promoted the rise of international copper prices in the mid-1990s. The housing operating rate in the United States also became one of the influencing factors of copper prices. Since 2003, the development of real estate and electricity in China has greatly promoted the growth of copper consumption, which has become one of the factors supporting copper prices. In the automobile industry, manufacturers advocate replacing copper with aluminum to reduce the weight of automobiles, thus reducing the amount of copper used in industry. In addition, with the rapid development of science and technology, the application scope of copper has been expanding, and copper has begun to play a role in medicine, biology, superconductivity and environmental protection. IBM has used copper instead of aluminum in silicon wafers, which marks a breakthrough in the application of copper in semiconductor technology. These changes will affect the consumption of copper to varying degrees. 6. Exchange rate fluctuation Copper is a highly liquid commodity. In international trade, under normal circumstances, the change of the exchange rate of the local currency of non-US dollar countries against the US dollar will directly affect the cost and profit of copper trade, which will lead to the change of trade activities and the change of supply and demand, which will lead to the fluctuation of copper prices. 7. Import and export tariff import and export policy, especially tariff policy, is an important means to control the import and export volume of commodities and balance the domestic supply and demand situation by adjusting the import and export cost of commodities. According to the tariff implementation plan No.2012 issued by the General Administration of Customs, the import of high-purity cathode copper is subject to zero preferential tariff rate, and the nominal tariff rate of high-purity cathode copper export is 10%. In the tariff implementation scheme of 20 13, from 20 13 10, 99.9999% of high-purity copper is increased, and the original provisional export tax rate of 5% is cancelled. 8. The production cost of copper is the basis of measuring commodity price level. When the copper price is lower than the production cost of copper for a long time, it will often lead to a sharp reduction in production of copper, mining and smelting enterprises, thus changing the relationship between supply and demand in the market and causing a sharp fluctuation in copper prices. The average comprehensive cash cost of pyrometallurgical copper smelting in western countries is about 70-75 cents/pound, and the average cost of hydrometallurgical copper smelting is about 45 cents/pound. The output of copper hydrometallurgy accounts for about 20% of the total output. The calculation of domestic production cost is different from that in the world.