First of all, the Indian government suddenly announced that the export tariff of iron ore will be officially raised from May 22nd, and the export tariff of iron ore with different iron grades and varieties will be raised to 45%-50%. At the same time, the import tax rate of coking coal and coke will be reduced to zero. According to the statistics of the International Trade Organization, from June to April, 2022, India exported iron ore10.72 million tons to the world and 6.24 million tons to China.
In addition, Indonesia has also issued a ban on the export of bulk commodities. BahlilLahadalia, Indonesian Minister of Investment and Chairman of the Investment Coordination Committee (BKPM), said recently that the Indonesian government will stop exporting bauxite and tin in 2022.
Some analysts pointed out that the adjustment of export policies in India and Indonesia will further aggravate the tight supply situation of global metallurgical products, and the upward trend of commodity prices will continue. In this context, A-shares reappeared the "coal dancing" market, the coal sector rose sharply, and non-ferrous stocks set off a wave of daily limit. According to Wind statistics, as of May 20th, the total market value of A-share coal, nonferrous metals and steel sectors totaled about 5 trillion yuan.
Export ban, tariff increase
Due to the "ridiculously high" domestic inflation rate, India suddenly waved a "tariff stick" to restrict iron ore exports and try to control the prices of domestic related products.
According to the Indian Ministry of Finance, on May 22, the Indian government officially raised the export tariff of iron ore, among which the export tariff of iron ore with different iron grades and varieties was raised to 45%-50%. In addition, the export tariffs on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated coils with widths greater than 600 mm will be increased from 0% to 15%, and the export tariffs on iron ore, pellets, pig iron, bars and wires and some stainless steel products will also be increased to varying degrees.
It is worth noting that India, as an important supplier of steel products in the world, has suddenly raised the export tariffs of related products substantially, or will change the balance between supply and demand of global commodities again, with a greater impact on the export of iron ore and steel products.
Moreover, the increase of iron ore export tariffs may have a certain impact on China. According to the statistics of the International Trade Organization, in 2020, India exported 52.2 million tons of iron ore to the world, including 47.32 million tons to China, accounting for 9 1%. From June to April, 2022, India exported10.72 million tons of iron ore to the world, and 6.24 million tons to China, the proportion dropped to 58%.
In the futures market, since 202 1, 1 1, the main contract of iron ore futures has fluctuated all the way up, from the low point of 5 1 1.5 yuan/ton to 843 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 64.8%. India's sudden increase in iron ore export tariffs may stimulate domestic iron ore futures prices to continue to rise.
Mysteel believes that this tariff adjustment will mainly have some impact on the import of 58% fine ore and Indian pellets, and the impact on the import of pellets is greater than that of fine ore, and the impact of fine ore below 58% is greater than that of varieties above 58%. The reduction of India's pellets to China may be obvious. After June, some traders obviously failed to fulfill the pellet contract.
At present, the domestic pellet sales price is about 1.300 yuan/ton (about 1.76 USD/ton). If the price of Indian pellets increases by 45% following the export tariff, it is expected that the existing steel mills that use Indian pellets will consider using domestic pellets.
At the same time, Indonesia has also issued a ban on the export of bulk commodities. BahlilLahadalia, Indonesian Minister of Investment/Chairman of Investment Coordination Committee (BKPM), said recently that the Indonesian government will stop exporting bauxite and tin in 2022 to support the upstream and downstream construction of related industries.
According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2022, China imported 6.768 million tons of bauxite from Indonesia, up by 1 18% year-on-year. According to SMM data, China imported 2 1.2% bauxite from Indonesia in March.
In addition, Indonesia ranks second in tin reserves and output in the world. According to the statistics of Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mining, the country's tin mine reserves are 2.23 million tons and 2.29 billion tons respectively. Indonesia's tin production target for 20021year is 70,000 tons.
Some analysts pointed out that the adjustment of export policies in India and Indonesia may further aggravate the tight supply of global metallurgical products, and the upward trend of commodity prices may continue, which deserves enough attention.
India's coal is "in a hurry"
At present, the inflation rate in India continues to be "ridiculously high". According to the latest official data of India, the inflation rate reached 7.79% in April 2022, the highest level since 17 months.
To curb inflation, the Bank of India raised its benchmark interest rate by 40 basis points in May. India's inflation is more imported inflation caused by rising prices of imported commodities such as coal, crude oil and edible oil.
For a large number of imported energy products, the Indian government has also significantly reduced import tariffs. According to the Indian Ministry of Finance, from May 22nd, the Indian government reduced the import tax rate of coking coal and coke from 2.5% and 5% to zero tariff.
India has always been a big coal consumer, and its dependence on foreign countries exceeds 20%. China imports about 300 million to 400 million tons of coal every year, mainly from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa.
Since 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disturbed the balance between supply and demand in the global coal market, leading to the soaring coal price in the international market. Indian manufacturers must buy coal at a higher price. Compared with 202 1, the import cost increased by 35%.
At the same time, the rare high temperature weather in India led to a surge in power demand, resulting in the worst power crisis in more than six years. According to Indian media reports, the coal bunker of Indian power manufacturers is at the lowest level before the summer of 9 years, and it can only last for 8 days. India's previous advice to power plants was to have an average inventory of at least 24 days.
India's domestic power generation is mainly coal, accounting for 70%, which has also led to a record high coal consumption in India since 2022 and has to bear the pressure of rising coal.
According to media reports citing government documents, India has further increased its coal imports, and the country has asked power regulators to allow power generation enterprises to import 30% of the coal demand by March next year. Previously, due to the shortage of supply, the Indian government has allowed the proportion of imported coal in the total demand to increase to 10%, about 38 million tons.
In fact, when European countries boycotted Russian coal together, India was "quietly" buying a lot of Russian low-priced coal. According to data released by commodity research institute Kpler, in March this year, India imported 6.5438+0.04 million tons of coal from Russia, a record high since June 2020. After being condemned by western countries, India slowed down its import speed.
In addition, India also imported Russian crude oil. According to Sputnik news agency & radio, India has purchased at least 654.38+03 million barrels of Russian crude oil since the end of February this year. In contrast, India bought about160,000 barrels of crude oil from Russia in 202 1 year.
With India's massive purchase of Russian oil, Russia jumped to become India's fourth largest oil supplier in April. At the same time, India reduced American oil imports, and the share of American oil in India's total imports almost halved to 3%. Luft predicted that India's oil imports from Russia will further increase to about 487,500 barrels in May due to rising domestic demand.
Resource stocks are soaring again?
In the context of tight commodity supply and soaring prices, global energy stocks seem to be a "safe haven" in the capital market.
Since 2022, the share price of global oil giant Saudi Aramco has soared by more than 33%, and its total market value has surpassed that of Apple, making it the highest listed company in the world. In addition, the share prices of energy giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, Petrobras and ConocoPhillips soared, all of which significantly outperformed the market in the same period.
At the same time, on May 20th, A-shares reappeared the "coal dance" market, the coal sector rose sharply, and the coal index rose by 4.45% that day. Individual stocks, Pingmei shares, Judas Energy daily limit, Shanxi Coking Coal, mountain coal international, Huayang shares rose.
Regarding the reasons for the rise of the coal industry, CICC pointed out that in the short term, coal prices may be driven by three factors: 1) The peak period of coal consumption in summer is coming, and the demand may be stronger; 2) The epidemic situation has gradually improved, steady growth has gradually exerted its strength, and demand is expected to recover; 3) Upstream raw material exports are expected to boost and support demand.
In the medium and long term, the restructuring of the global energy supply and demand pattern triggered by geopolitical conflicts will not only lead to high short-term coal prices, but also raise the global medium and long-term coal use costs, causing the medium and long-term coal price center to move up.
Citic Securities also said that the data of the National Bureau of Statistics in April showed that there were still bottlenecks in increasing domestic coal production. In May, coal imports decreased again, and domestic coal supply remained tight.
In addition, stimulated by the export ban of some countries, the A-share non-ferrous metal plate also rose sharply on May 20, and non-ferrous stocks even set off a wave of daily limit. China Aluminum, Minfa Aluminum, Shenhuo Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Hesheng and other stocks have daily limit. According to the statistics of Wind, as of May 20th, the total market value of A-share coal and non-ferrous plate was as high as 4,085 billion yuan.
Editor: tactical constancy