Stock analysis and stock investment skills

As a means to increase leverage, few investors can meet their requirements in regular on-site trading, which leads to off-site fund-raising, but the risk is further increased. Here are some stock investment skills for your reference.

Stock analysis and investment skills

Experienced investors will find that every stock in the stock market will have its own personality just like people. For example, some stocks are active in nature, and they will behave at the slightest sign; Some stocks are quiet by nature and rarely perform in a year. We call this personality of the stock "stock". If investors can spend time and energy to study the stocks they invest in, it will be of great benefit to your investment activities.

Here, I will talk about my research experience on the stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and communicate with investors and friends.

Generally speaking, the stock nature can be divided into three types:

One is a "live" stock. Because such stocks are either stationed in Changzhuang; Either the performance is excellent; Either the equity is special (such as no state shares); Either there are other hype themes, etc. Therefore, such stocks are "active", and they are often the first to start when the stock market has a market, and they will often show up when the market is in a downturn. There are a large number of active stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. For example, the "Four Little Dragons" in Shanghai (referring to "Head Industry", "Xiaofei", "Love Ambassador" and "Shenhua") and "Pudong Concept Stocks"; Shenzhen's "financial plate", "two beauties and one photo" (referring to "elegance", "beauty", "lighting" and "Fujian plate" and so on. There is no doubt that active stocks are always the most sought after by investors.

the other is a stock with a "dead" nature. Because this kind of stock is either large; Either the performance is too poor; Either the mass base is not good, etc., so these stocks are "dead" and "sluggish". Whenever the stock market has a market, their performance will be slow, and their performance will flash by; If the market is depressed, they will be the first to fall. There are also a large number of "dead" stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, such as "steel plate", "textile plate" and "machinery plate" in Shanghai stock market; Shenzhen's "textile plate" and so on. Obviously, stocks that are "dead" are often given the cold shoulder by investors.

there is another kind of stock that is between "dead" and "alive", or simply called "neither dead nor alive". It should be said that these stocks are the main stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and they will neither react ahead of the broader market nor lag behind the broader market.

in addition to the above three types, the stock nature of some stocks, especially the leading stocks in the market, seems to be unable to be classified as "alive", "dead" or "neither dead nor alive". It is necessary for investors to know more about the leading stocks and long-term "hot stocks" in the market. For example, the stock of "Shenzhen Development" will not perform in the quiet stage of the market, but in the bull market, its leading position is irreplaceable by any stock. "Shenzhen Development" will go up one day, and then it will fall down unfathomable. The stock nature of "Shenzhen Development" is welcomed by the main supermarket players and the majority of small and medium-sized retail investors. Another example is the stock "Su Sanshan", although it is a junk stock, it is extremely active and its performance in the market is often shocking.

So, how can investors adopt correct investment strategies for different stocks? We think that there are some points worthy of investors' attention:

First, investors should invest in stocks that they are familiar with and understand, so that they can have a deeper understanding of stocks.

Imagine that if you are very familiar with the stock nature of a stock, you can better grasp the timing of buying and selling, and the successful product rate will definitely be much higher than that if you are unfamiliar with the stock nature. There are many investment masters who teach us to make stocks that we are familiar with. There is no reason why we should not remember this sentence.

second, make different investment strategies for different stocks.

For stocks with "active" stocks, investors should dare to buy on dips and hold them for a long time. As long as you don't buy such stocks at sky-high prices, don't worry even if you are stuck, because you may have the opportunity to "liberate" and make a profit at any time.

For stocks whose shares are "dead", it is better to touch them less after investment. Because once such stocks are locked up, it will take a long time to wait for "liberation". At this point, investors mainly overcome the psychology of "checking bargains" because the price of such stocks is usually very "cheap".

investors should also have enough patience and strict discipline for stocks that are neither dead nor alive, because the performance opportunities of such stocks in the middle of the year are limited after all. The ideal investment strategy is to buy in the bottom area, and resolutely ship on rallies, without unrealistic illusions. < P > Third, investors should also analyze problems with a developmental perspective and dialectically.

with the continuous development of China's stock market and the continuous improvement of the quality and skills of investors, the stock nature of many stocks is also changing quietly. Although "a leopard cannot change its spots, its nature cannot change", it is still possible to "move".

We have noticed that some stocks that were originally "dead" are "alive", and some have even been "alive". The most obvious example is some large-cap industrial stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Because of their large circulation plates, they are suitable for large funds to enter and exit. After several years of baptism in 95, 96 and 97, they have become the favorite investment products of many investors. We believe that with the deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the moderns of large-cap stocks can be expected.

We have also noticed that some stocks that were once very active are becoming "dead" for many reasons. The most obvious examples are the "Guangdong Plate" in Shenzhen and the "New Shanghai Concept Stock" in Shanghai.

In short, in the face of these situations, investors must treat and analyze them with a developmental and dialectical perspective, and adjust their thinking mode and investment strategy in time.

fund management of advanced technical analysis

One of the most important watershed in a trader's life is when he realizes that proper fund management is more important than trading choice. In general, only a more accurate forecast of the trend or an accurate stop-loss setting is the most important.

The three main speculative success principles of a good trading system are homeopathic trading, quick stop loss and profit growth.

experienced traders have been suggesting for years that with proper fund management, even random entry will make money.

how important is money management? Can it really make up for the shortcomings caused by bad predictions? For traders of mechanized systems, it is actually creating and testing the system to determine the timing when the system can properly cooperate with fund management.

Four principles of speculative fund management: 1. Appropriate account size, 2. Diversification, 3. Risk management and 4. Combination of trading cycles.

one. Appropriate account size

How large an account is needed to trade futures? According to informal research, the greater the capital invested in futures trading, the greater the chance of success.

one of the reasons why large accounts are easier to succeed is diversification. Diversification of markets and systems. There are advantages and disadvantages. While limiting your risk, it also limits your potential. There is an unchangeable relationship between risk and reward. Diversification will dilute the huge profits of one or two markets, but you will also dilute the negative impact of market losses. Capital preservation is the most important thing.

diversification has another advantage. No one knows when the big market will start. Only by more market transactions can we increase the chances of catching the big market.

although diversification is very important, we should not go into a misunderstanding and trade the illiquid market for diversification. In an inactive market, the market is not much better. Don't waste precious funds to trade in boring markets.

focusing on the more volatile market is the way to maximize the return on capital.

traditionally, volatility is directly related to risk, but historical data discovery is not. The only direct relationship between big fluctuations and the system is that it can improve the profit potential. That is to say, the market with strong trend has relatively low risk, but it provides excellent profit potential. Remember, you can't make money in a dull market!

Second, the diversification of systems and markets

No method can be applied to all forms of markets. The trend system will lose money in the case of the market. However, the system of interval trading does not perform well in the trend market. If you use a system that performs well in both cases to trade the same variety at the same time. No matter what the market situation is, there will be a good reward. The capital curve generated by the combination of these two systems will be smoother than that of a single system.

remember: if you want to maximize the chances of profit, you must accept a reasonable rate of return.

there is no rule that two or more systems cannot be used to trade the same goods at the same time. Don't worry that at the same time, one system is too many, and another system is empty. Put all the system instructions into your account. The result reflects the overall performance of all systems.

if two systems are bearish and bullish at the same time, they should ignore the signal and wait for the next signal.

third, risk management

risk management has two different components: first, it is also the most important, that is, each transaction sets the maximum tolerable loss according to your trading method and account size. The biggest feature of failed traders is the unexpected large losses.

The most important psychological obstacle in controlling loss is ego, and we are unwilling to accept failure. Because it means admitting defeat.

sometimes we don't accept the losses we should accept, and the market pull-back enables us to solve the problem. This can only make us repeat the same mistakes again and again. The result can only be to make the originally acceptable loss bigger.

losses must be limited to a small proportion of capital to prevent devastating risks. Even the best trading system will eventually produce a series of losses. There is no way to avoid this. If you take too much risk in every transaction, the chance of success will be zero!

Gann suggested that the risk of each transaction should not exceed 1% of the account. Professional traders have only a 35% chance of winning money, so they must learn to protect themselves from a series of inevitable losses.

if you trade with a mechanized system, your maximum loss amount should be calculated based on your initial venture capital, not the existing capital.

the way to control the excess loss is to keep enough reserves in the account. In this way, you can continue trading during the biggest loss period in history.

for example, the biggest loss of a system in the past five years is 6 yuan, and the security deposit is 3 yuan, so your account should have 1 yuan. But at the same time, you may not want to take risks on any particular system, half of all the capital. Remember, no matter how the system behaves in history. The future is not guaranteed. So you should have at least 2 thousand yuan in your account.

the second element of risk management is to avoid unnecessary risks as much as possible. The market will destroy a well-executed plan.

Mechanized system engineers cannot ignore excessive seasonal risks. It is prudent to ignore the transactions that will expose you to seasonal risks. Instead, do a deal that will benefit you from the weather change. If on the way to a system transaction, unexpected risks appear. Then the right thing to do is to leave and wait and see.

there is a misunderstanding in the market, and transactions will always suffer because of the price limit of the market. But these few cases will not cause serious losses. Remember that you are a speculator, not a gambler.

the last element to limit losses is the disciplined adherence to the plan. In and out strictly according to the system.

fourth, trading multiple contracts.

it is very important to identify the profitable parts at different levels. Using multiple fixed profit targets is more profitable than clearing all parts when the reverse signal appears.

this method requires many systems to trade in the same market at the same time. If you have enough capital, this is a good way.

Novices should focus on the selected system at the same time and apply it to a single market. If you succeed at this stage, you can graduate and engage in multiple transactions.

The principle of chip analysis-balancing the price

This is an abstract topic, involving more mathematics and a little like chemistry. I hope everyone will be patient.

question: how is the stock price determined?

The usual answers are economic cliches, such as investment value, price-earnings ratio, and so on, including the relationship between supply and demand. The law of value is correct: prices fluctuate around value. Let's not say that the price is always higher than the value in our market. The price depends on the relationship between supply and demand, but the specific quantitative things are gone.

in my opinion, the price of a stock at a certain moment is the instantaneous equilibrium price of buyers and sellers.

stocks are different from commodities. From a long-term perspective, the seller's "chips" are infinite and can be produced forever. At the same time, the buyer's "funds" are infinite, and he will buy them again after consumption. From a short-term point of view, the seller's "chips" are very limited, and only a little snapping up is out of stock immediately. The seller's chip of stock is fixed in both the long-term and the short-term, and that is the circulating share capital. The buyer's funds, in the short and medium term, are relatively fixed, that is, on-site funds. It is precisely because of these two points (of course, there are other secondary reasons) that the buying and selling balance of stocks can be analyzed more quantitatively.

Theoretically and intellectually, the stock price should be the price recognized by most people (determined according to the investment value). However, in practice, people are more concerned about existing profits and expected profits, which is irrational and easily induced by market mentality. Therefore, it often happens that the stock price exceeds most people's imagination.

opinion: the stock price is determined by a few people, not many people. (explained later)

A lot has been said above, the central meaning is that the stock price is determined by the instant buying and selling orders. Only when the buying and selling orders reach a balance can the stock price run relatively stably, otherwise, if the buying orders prevail, the stock price will continue to rise until the buying and selling orders can reach a balanced price, and vice versa. In other words, the short-term fluctuation of stock price is caused by the tiny fluctuation of buying and selling orders. This is the case in an instant, and it is the same at the end of the day. Because with the passage of time, the number of pending orders between buyers and sellers has gradually increased, which has reduced the volatility of stock prices. Therefore, the closing price is generally used to represent the transaction price of a day. A day is like this, and a longer period can also be understood in this way.

so, what determines the buying and selling orders? This has been mentioned in other articles. Although there are many influencing factors, in most cases, both buyers and sellers are relatively stable, that is, turnover rate. In the article "Introduction to Chip Analysis Theory", the relationship between selling turnover rate and profit and loss situation and holding time has been mentioned. In most cases, the buying turnover rate is related to the market trend, that is, when the market goes bullish, the turnover rate is high and when it goes bearish, it is low. What needs special mention is that new investors, such as the market, have to be converted into stocks because they are all holding cash, so the turnover rate of funds for the first operation is 1%. In the event of an emergency, the buyer's turnover rate will suddenly change, while the seller's turnover rate will also change, but the change is relatively small. It should also be pointed out that if it is good for a stock, all the funds are