1. In terms of cost, the trend of thermal coal is weak. In May, the profit of methanol from coal on the contract disk was 2 10 yuan/ton, and the support was weakened; On the supply side, the output and operating rate decreased slightly. In June, 5438+February, there were not many imports from East China, and the supply side was neutral. In terms of inventory, the downstream replenishment demand is good, but there are fewer ships, and the port inventory continues to go to the warehouse, while the enterprise inventory goes to the warehouse slightly because the enterprise executes the previous order, and the inventory impact is neutral; On the demand side, home appliances and real estate are weak, and the demand for methanol terminals is not good. In addition, the operating rate of MTO decreased and the downstream demand was weak. Strong supply and weak demand, methanol fundamentals are weak. Technically, the trend is weak, and it is estimated that the short-term trend of methanol is dominated by weak shocks. In operation, empty or interval operation is the main method.
2.65438+On February 9, 2008, the domestic price of methanol was 2600 yuan/ton. Specification of methanol: content 99.9%. This offer is valid for 3 days. Quoting party: Jinan Jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. .. Methanol is still in the central shock for 60 minutes, and it has not yet gone out of the way. Long-term opportunities can wait for the end of the daily rebound and pay attention to whether there is a second selling opportunity on the daily line. If there is central deviation or macd standard deviation in the next 60 minutes, it is a long-term selling point of entanglement theory and has the opportunity to be the next daily line. Methanol is currently on the daily line, and the next one is 60 minutes.
3. Methanol 2201-from bottom to top, the center of gravity moves down, and methanol returns to above 2600 again. The 2-hour line is the fourth time from bottom to top, and the overall center of gravity is slightly inclined downward, and the amplitude gradually narrows. Short-term high-throwing and low-sucking operation is the main operation, with pressure of 2670 and support of 2580. Reflections on the mid-term weakness below 2760. 65438+February 10, Zhengzhou recorded 4653 methanol futures warehouse receipts, which was the same as the previous trading day; In the last week, the cumulative number of methanol futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,900, with an increase of165.43%; Last month, the methanol futures warehouse receipts increased by 25 18, with an increase of 1 17.94%.
4. The spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu Port is 2740-2760 yuan/ton; In Changzhou, Jiangyin and other places in Jiangsu, the spot price of methanol is around 2750-2760 yuan/ton; The quotation of methanol delivery of major merchants in Nantong Port is around 2780 yuan/ton.
5. Da Yue Futures said that the overall performance of the domestic methanol market was poor this week, and the mainland, ports and futures all fell to varying degrees. However, futures are stronger than port spot, and ports are stronger than the mainland. In terms of inventory, as of 2002165438+February 2, the total social inventory of methanol in ports in East China and South China was 507,500 tons, down 43,500 tons from the same period last week; The total circulating supply of methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China) is about 272,000 tons, which is 23,000 tons less than the previous period.