? Indicator definition: this indicator shows the ratio of the total number of people holding multiple positions of corresponding currency contracts to the total number of people holding short positions in a certain period of time. Statistics include the sum of delivery contracts and permanent contracts this week, next week and quarter. (The long-short direction is calculated according to the user's net position direction in this currency)?
Usage:
1, the long-short ratio is negatively correlated with the market. When the market falls, the proportion of long and short positions still increases, or when the market grows, the proportion of long and short positions still decreases, and the market is likely to continue the previous trend.
2. When the number of long and short positions is high or low, there will be a pin phenomenon in the market with high probability.
3. When the market is at a high level and the long-short ratio increases obviously, the market will reverse with a high probability, but when the market is at a high level and the long-short ratio is moderate (close to 1: 1), the market will continue to rise with a high probability.
Corresponding to the K-line chart of BTC from September 12 to today, we can see that the proportion of positions also goes down from a high level.
No.2 long and short elite trend index
Indicator definition: This indicator reflects the long-short ratio of the top 100 net positions (net positions) in elite traders' accounts. (Only account numbers with positions are used to calculate the position proportion; A user is a vote, regardless of the specific location. )
Number three? Average position ratio of elite bulls and bears
Indicator definition: This indicator reflects the average real-time situation of the top hundreds of experienced traders using the funds in the margin account. Different from the elite trend index, the proportion of positions is not analyzed by voting mode, but calculated by using the average value of capital utilization of each position account. ?
Although this indicator also has a lag, when the market starts to rise and fall, the average long-short position ratio begins to change, and there is no way to judge when the market will start and when it will reverse, but it can be judged in advance whether there is a clear guide to continue after the market starts.
Usage:
When the market starts to move sideways after a period of decline, if the ratio of long positions keeps rising (above 30%) and remains high, and the data does not drop significantly, then the subsequent market is likely to continue the previous trend until the data falls from high to medium level. or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium
When the differences between bulls and bears are serious, they tend to go in the opposite direction. Which side holds more positions and which side explodes.
Number four? Total positions and trading volume
Indicator definition:? Total position: the sum of long and short positions of currency delivery and permanent contracts at the corresponding time. Transaction volume: the total transaction volume of delivery and permanent contracts in this currency per unit time. ?
Usage:
1. When the market is at a low level, the total positions are increasing, and the overall trading volume is very small, and there is no amplification, the subsequent market is likely to rise.
2. When the market is at a high level, the total positions hit record highs, but the market with enlarged volume is in a sideways or negative state, and the market is likely to fall sharply.
3. When the trading volume increases and the position decreases, it means that a large number of orders have been closed or exploded.
As can be seen from the figure below, there were a lot of positions on September 26th, which was also the day when BTC broke its position from $9,000. This is the situation mentioned in the second article above. If it is low, it is a bull market.
Number five? Contract basis
Indicator definition:? This indicator also shows the changes and differences between spot index price and contract price. Where the basis at a certain moment = contract price-spot index price. ?
? Futures contract basis = spot price-futures price futures contract basis refers to the difference between the spot price of the hedged asset and the futures contract price used for hedging. Since both the futures price and the spot price will fluctuate, the basis will also fluctuate during the validity period of the futures contract. The uncertainty of basis is called basis risk. The key to reduce basis risk and realize hedging is to choose a highly matched hedging futures contract. ?
Usage: 1 When the basis is a large positive number, it shows that investors are generally bullish and have a higher mood to do more.
? 2. When the basis is negative and the value is large, it means that investors are generally bearish and have a high short-selling mood.
Number six? Active buying/selling situation
Indicator definition:? Active buying quantity: displays the active buying quantity per unit time (the taker eats pending orders to buy), that is, the inflow of funds. Active Selling Quantity: displays the active selling quantity per unit time (the receiver eats pending orders to sell), that is, the outflow of funds. ?
Usage: 1 When the buying volume is continuously greater than the selling volume, the market outlook is bullish. And vice versa!
Through the above big data, we can analyze the current market sentiment and avoid unnecessary losses. I posted a screenshot of my position in the WeChat group on June 19 and 18, and the gap between long and short positions was too big. Generally, the ratio of this position is which side has more positions, which is the 2/8 law. Most people are sure to lose money, only a few people can make money.